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For joy! - Mon Dec 24, 2012, 11:53 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hi Joy. I have created this thread in this section to solely explain my meaning to you of you AKs, not been a bad beat as I see it.

I have looked through my hand histories but at the moment I am unable to find an example for you as there is just so many.

"Bad Beat - To have a hand that is a large underdog beat a heavily favored hand. It is generally used to imply that the winner of the pot had no business being in the pot at all, and it was the wildest of luck that he managed to catch the one card in the deck that would win the pot. We won't give any examples; you will hear plenty of them during your poker career."

Yes Joy the opp should have never been in the pot to start with.

I wasn't looking for an analysis, so I didn't provide any reads or any table dynamics. I have reliable reads on most of these players, and I feel no need to defend my play.

Was not giving an analysis Joy just did not consider this to be a bad beat.


The fact remains that the opponent had no business being in the hand, much less shoving it. She hit runner runner of the ONLY TWO cards that could beat me, including the one card that could beat me on the river. Perhaps you could give us an example of a bad beat that would explain your point of view.



I have looked through my HH, like I said. SO I will try to explain what im saying as I have a spare ten minutes and needed a break from the kids lol.

Pre-flop I have you


Hand 0: 08.944% 08.57%
Hand 1: 38.728% 38.19% AKs
Hand 2: 16.938% 16.31%
Hand 3: 18.725% 17.81%
Hand 4: 16.664% 15.57%

So between them regardless of cards they have more equity.

Now if we raise narrowing down the players in the pot


Hand 0: 27.630% 27.05%
Hand 1: 49.237% 48.72% AKs
Hand 2: 23.134% 22.17%

and if we get it to heads up


Hand 0: 32.955% 32.13%
Hand 1: 67.045% 66.22% AKs

This is why any group one hand as to be raised unless the villain as lets say VP4/PFR4/over 100 hands.

Situation can create a bad beat.

As for the flop, my situation at the flop would of been different from yours, I would of had possibly one caller preflop, then in a position thinking ahead to donk bet the flop if I missed .

Forcing the AT to lay down if he was still there on the flop.


Board: 9h 9s 7s



Hand 0: 02.035% 01.75% 00.28%
Hand 1: 49.787% 48.92% 00.86% AKs
Hand 2: 13.974% 12.83% 01.15%
Hand 3: 17.191% 15.79% 01.40%
Hand 4: 17.014% 15.62% 01.39%

your equity still less than 50% as we still do not know the villains holdings.

Button shoves, folded around to you


Hand 0: 73.439% 72.24% AKs
Hand 1: 26.561% 25.36%

Yes at this stage you were ahead, but this stage should of not happened, you should of been the one opening the betting.

I just needed something to do JOy lol, not no issue just a notice.
 
Old
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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 01:48 PM
(#2)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
If you're talking strictly the Ace-King combination, then I might have a bit of information that could help. As you know, the Ace-King is considered a group one hand. These are suppose to be the most powerful hands. Here are my statistics for a very limited pool of about 65K hands. Check out my thread in "Poker Education and Beginner's Questions" regarding stats to learn more.

The usual thinking on this hand is to play it in any position and to make a raise. That is theory. Reality can be a lot different. Note that each player's results will vary due to their playing style.

Ace-King suited:
102 wins -- 25 losses -- 70 folded = An overall success rate of 51.8%. I consider folded hands the same as losses.

Ace-King unsuited:
249 wins -- 74 losses -- 228 folded = An overall success rate of 45.2%.

My opinion is that these hands are quite powerful before the flop is exposed. Once the flop is revealed, the odds shift on this hand. If you don't pair, or hit the Jack-Queen, you're holding a high-card temptress. If you get married to those cards, it will cost you chips.

A low success rate, which I have, is not a valid indicator of the hand's value. My playing style and the board's composition affects my raise-stand-fold decisions. Some players here will tell you their winning percentages are much higher. I'm betting an equal number would say the reverse.

What it does show me is that either this is my biggest leak, or I miss more often than most. Like any initial pair of cards, it has potential, but doesn't guarantee a winning hand.






As to bad breaks, we all will have our bad beat stories. My thought is that most of these stories are where the person hit the 2-4% probability on the river. I will also define a bad beat hand the same way most card rooms and casinos do. A bad beat is when a player holds Aces full of Queens or better, and losses.
 
Old
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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:56 PM
(#3)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
Most of the value from AK comes from hitting TPTK on the flop or picking up nut straight or flush draws. And on those types of boards you usually have good implied odds against anyone who sees the turn.

Or I could be wrong, it is christmas eve and the alcohols flowing... Also merry christmas!
 
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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 04:58 PM
(#4)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
to me..........every day is x-mas...hiccup

cheers all
 
Old
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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 11:12 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Hi Joy. I have created this thread in this section to solely explain my meaning to you of you AKs, not been a bad beat as I see it.

I have looked through my hand histories but at the moment I am unable to find an example for you as there is just so many.

"Bad Beat - To have a hand that is a large underdog beat a heavily favored hand. It is generally used to imply that the winner of the pot had no business being in the pot at all, and it was the wildest of luck that he managed to catch the one card in the deck that would win the pot. We won't give any examples; you will hear plenty of them during your poker career."

Yes Joy the opp should have never been in the pot to start with.

I wasn't looking for an analysis, so I didn't provide any reads or any table dynamics. I have reliable reads on most of these players, and I feel no need to defend my play.

Was not giving an analysis Joy just did not consider this to be a bad beat.


You stated that I should have raised, that sounds like analysis to me. The pot had already been raised, I would have been three betting with 5 players behind still to act. A standard 3 bet would have been about 200 more, leaving me with 1130 behind. We are on the first blind level, calling and seeing the flop seemed like a better option.

The fact remains that the opponent had no business being in the hand, much less shoving it. She hit runner runner of the ONLY TWO cards that could beat me, including the one card that could beat me on the river. Perhaps you could give us an example of a bad beat that would explain your point of view.



I have looked through my HH, like I said. SO I will try to explain what im saying as I have a spare ten minutes and needed a break from the kids lol.

Pre-flop I have you


Hand 0: 08.944% 08.57%
Hand 1: 38.728% 38.19% AKs
Hand 2: 16.938% 16.31%
Hand 3: 18.725% 17.81%
Hand 4: 16.664% 15.57%

So between them regardless of cards they have more equity.

Now if we raise narrowing down the players in the pot


Hand 0: 27.630% 27.05%
Hand 1: 49.237% 48.72% AKs
Hand 2: 23.134% 22.17%

and if we get it to heads up


Hand 0: 32.955% 32.13%
Hand 1: 67.045% 66.22% AKs

This is why any group one hand as to be raised unless the villain as lets say VP4/PFR4/over 100 hands.

Situation can create a bad beat.

If this were true there would be no such thing as a bad beat in a multi-way pot.

As for the flop, my situation at the flop would of been different from yours, I would of had possibly one caller preflop, then in a position thinking ahead to donk bet the flop if I missed .

Raising is no guarantee that you would only have 1 caller, the pot had been raised and there were 6 players. The opponent with the AT would have likely shoved to a 3 bet, she didn't seem to need a hand to shove on the flop. (A donk bet is betting into the pre-flop raiser, if you are the pre-flop aggressor you are making a continuation bet)

Forcing the AT to lay down if he was still there on the flop.

See comments above.

Board: 9h 9s 7s



Hand 0: 02.035% 01.75% 00.28%
Hand 1: 49.787% 48.92% 00.86% AKs
Hand 2: 13.974% 12.83% 01.15%
Hand 3: 17.191% 15.79% 01.40%
Hand 4: 17.014% 15.62% 01.39%

your equity still less than 50% as we still do not know the villains holdings.

Button shoves, folded around to you


Hand 0: 73.439% 72.24% AKs
Hand 1: 26.561% 25.36%

Yes at this stage you were ahead, but this stage should of not happened, you should of been the one opening the betting.

I just needed something to do JOy lol, not no issue just a notice.
If you need something to do, re-read the definition of a bad beat, you will find that there is no mention of raises, 3 bets, etc. Just for fun I went back and read some of your posts in the bad beat forum, I truly believe you just don't understand what a bad beat really is.

PS. @Cairn, poker rooms are defining their bad beat jackpot, not a bad beat. They don't want to pay out all the time and set their standard very high so they don't have to pay very often.
 
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 12:40 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,833
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post

PS. @Cairn, poker rooms are defining their bad beat jackpot, not a bad beat. They don't want to pay out all the time and set their standard very high so they don't have to pay very often.
Most have it so that you have to have quads or higher get beat, some A's full of K's or higher, some quad 8's or higher. It depends on the individual casinos.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 02:57 AM
(#7)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
I consider a bad beat to be when at least 4 community cards are out and you have the nuts on the turn and get rivered.

It is my belief though Joy that a lot of situations create bad beats by just not simply betting or in fact sometimes checking.

Example utg limping with aces or kk.

People get 4-5 callers and wonder why their aces are no longer any good beaten by 3-2 on the button.


And yes I did missword my cbet , my bad lol.

I do know its true though JOy and sometimes a limp is ok, but I just see TAG as been exactly that,Tight and aggressive,
a proper officiant TAG player will have the same vpip as pfr,
e.g vp9,pfr9
As with proper TAG it should be raise or fold by right imo.

And calling does not come into it unless its value showdown on the river.

Ok, got to go, kids just woke up, merry xmas all hohohohohoho lol.
 
Old
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 10:40 PM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
I consider a bad beat to be when at least 4 community cards are out and you have the nuts on the turn and get rivered.

It is my belief though Joy that a lot of situations create bad beats by just not simply betting or in fact sometimes checking.

Example utg limping with aces or kk.

People get 4-5 callers and wonder why their aces are no longer any good beaten by 3-2 on the button.


And yes I did missword my cbet , my bad lol.

I do know its true though JOy and sometimes a limp is ok, but I just see TAG as been exactly that,Tight and aggressive,
a proper officiant TAG player will have the same vpip as pfr,
e.g vp9,pfr9
As with proper TAG it should be raise or fold by right imo.

And calling does not come into it unless its value showdown on the river.


Ok, got to go, kids just woke up, merry xmas all hohohohohoho lol.
so if the part in Red is true and you have AA you will have to fold should your opponent goes all in before you get to act.

Care to rethink!!


Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 10:51 PM
(#9)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
LOL, are you kidding - you just defined my hand. That would be the one that I misplayed. The one that was a huge favorite on the turn. If the original raiser had bet, I probably would have folded. Against the opponent that shoved, I'm never folding here.





 
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Wed Dec 26, 2012, 12:07 AM
(#10)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Fish are so predictable.

 
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Wed Dec 26, 2012, 03:40 AM
(#11)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
LOL, are you kidding - you just defined my hand. That would be the one that I misplayed. The one that was a huge favorite on the turn. If the original raiser had bet, I probably would have folded. Against the opponent that shoved, I'm never folding here.





Not quite defining your hand Joy, you were all in on the flop and not the turn, and your hand was not the nuts on the turn either.

So in comparison, completely different. The opp could of well had A9,77 calling on the button pre-flop.

You called a shove with no made hand at the time looking for a flush when there was all ready a possible full house on the board.

If you look at it another way, you were lucky too, to make the nut flush on the turn.

Yes he got luckier, but the times I have made people pay for chasing draws is unreal, with hands like 22, on a board like that.

I dont want to come across as analising you or anything like that, I just wanted to point out that this was maybe a leak in your game.
 
Old
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Wed Dec 26, 2012, 03:43 AM
(#12)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hey B, I think you have read it wrong some where or miss-understood me, The hand in question Joys action was b4 the villain, not the other way around.
 

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