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This had me stumped

This had me stumped - Mon Dec 24, 2012, 02:35 PM
tcpAz's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 6
So, in a Freebuy to O Clássico (PT Tournament), I made this play.

I believe I had around 60% chance of getting one of the outs I needed. Was it a bad call to give it a shot and shove?

Thank you for your time
Mon Dec 24, 2012, 03:12 PM
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
***Moved to appropriate forum***

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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 03:36 PM
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I don't like the limp pre with blinds so high, I'm either shoving or folding in this spot with shoving my most likely (it would depend on how I thought the limper was playing)

On the flop I only count 9 outs for the flush draw because we don't know what our opponent has in this spot. As this is for my tournament life I'd err on folding, we don't have a made hand.

You counted 15 outs when the cards were seen which was correct and is around 60% and were unlucky not to hit but the bottom line is if we take the aggressive line here we may win without a showdown which would have added 1/4 to our stack.

Edit, Im not an official hand analyser, just giving my opinion.
Mon Dec 24, 2012, 03:39 PM
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Agree with above - shove pre !

You might be a king or a little street sweeper, but sooner or later you'll dance with the reaper.
Mon Dec 24, 2012, 03:45 PM
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
You had 52% equity on pokerstove and 60% using the rule of 2 and 4. The rule of 2 and 4 isn't accurate when you have more than 10 outs. If you have more than 10 outs you multiply by 2 or 4 as standard but then subtract the outs over 10 from the result.

So say you have 15 outs you do 15*4=60 then subtract 5 from 60 =55%.

Also shoving preflop is probably what I would of done as well.
Mon Dec 24, 2012, 03:59 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
Hi tcpAz!

With this not being a league game, with about 10BB and AQs, I'm going to shove here preflop. I'll do this for two reasons. First, I don't want to let an opp see a card that can beat me. Secondly, a standard raise here would be to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper, so I'd have to raise to 1000, which would be just short of making me pot-committed.
I would not want to open-limp, as an open-limp is a play that I do not want to make, as it gives the opps the correct odds to outdraw me.

The flop gives me a flush draw (9 outs) and two overcards, which may or may not be good for 6 more outs. Normally, in this situation, I'll discount at least 3 of these outs, if not all 6, as someone could have Ax and already have paired the board.
To call the shove, I need to put 3928 into a pot that will be 9806 (40%). If I only have 9 outs, my hand has 36% equity (4% per out as I'm guaranteed to see both streets. If any of my other possible outs are good, then calling the shove is a +EV play, as I'll be guaranteed at least 48% equity.

In a standard tourney, I'm going to open-shove here to maximize my fold equity.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Wed Dec 26, 2012, 09:02 AM
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Unless I thought the Limper was a very trappy player highly likely to be limping a monster I'm shoving here pre flop. As played I think the flop call is probably good.

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