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18man MTT, 89s in SB with about 6BB

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18man MTT, 89s in SB with about 6BB - Mon Dec 24, 2012, 09:27 PM
(#1)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
Can I shove this hand with (min.) raise from CO? I was putting the CO at least with an Ax. I don't think I have any fold equity, but I was actually hoping to get lucky with my hand and double up.

Also, if i input this in poker calculator/poker stove, what figures should I be comparing to see if this hand is a push or fold? thanks

 
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 12:36 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi ggervacio!

As the low stack in a tourney where I need to get to the top 5, I need to be looking for any opportunity that I can to accumulate chips since I only have about 5BB left.

The CO raises and it folds to me in the SB with 89s. The CO should call a shove if I make one, but the ? is will the BB. Let's look at it both ways to see if a shove makes sense.

First, let's look at HU with the initial raiser. How is this opp playing? Loose or tight? I need this info, as I have to put a range for them into pokerstove.

If I shove here and am only called by the raiser, I will be putting 821 chips into a pot of 1942 (42.3%).

I then go to pokerstove to see if my hand has this much equity. Since read info is not given, I'll see how wide of a range it takes for my equity to be 42.3%. For this to be a breakeven play, the opp will have to shove the top 54.9% of hands, which is VERY, VERY loose.

If the opp is not playing this wide of a range, it's a fold in a HU situation against the intitial raiser.

Next, I need to see how my hand does against two opps. Once again, reads are critical for putting this into pokerstove. Since none are given, I'll assume that the button will be a tighter range than the initial raiser, as they would need to like their hand in a 3-way pot.

I need to put 821 chips into a pot that will be 2688 (30.5).
I'll use a top 15% hand for the BB and a top 30% hand for the initial raiser as a starting point due to no reads. With these ranges, my hand is only worth 26.87% equity. The BB could be playing a much tighter range, so could the initial raiser, so since the pot equity is much higher than my hand equity, this situaion is a fold.

In almost every case, the pot equity to shove here will be higher than the equity in my hand (plus I have basically no fold equity), so 89s here is a muck.

While I'm looking for a hand to shove, I want one where I expect to gain chips, not to expect to lose chips.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 06:23 PM
(#3)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
Hi JWK24,

Appreciate the reply. I think I understand now how to use the pokerstove. I got all figures pretty much close to what you got. and I think i now have better idea how loose an opponent should be for me to shove hands.

I guess my next question is what stats should i be looking in HM2 to figure out what percentage of hands an opponent could be opening with?
 
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Tue Dec 25, 2012, 07:32 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi ggervacio!

If you're using a HUD, then this will be easy for you. The range that you will want to put into pokerstove will be the opp's VPIP (or 3-bet% if they make a preflop 3-bet).

With this info, you put your hand and their range into pokerstove and see if the hand has more equity than the pot equity. If the hand equity is higher, it's a call. If the pot equity is higher, it's a fold.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Dec 26, 2012, 09:31 PM
(#5)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
Thank you very much for the info JWK24.
 

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