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no stats on villan

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no stats on villan - Thu Dec 27, 2012, 09:57 AM
(#1)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 10:35 AM
(#2)
joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
I can't see much wrong here.

3x pre
2/3rd pot on flop
2/3rd pot on turn

all good. The fact that he called the turn with a draw is incredible and I feel without knowing this player the case might have been a well rolled player who enjoys playing loose on small tables when they are not seriously playing. Maybe drinking or bored, who knows but take a note on him so the next time you can play the same and watch for those draws and let it go if he hits the draw.

Honestly while watching I felt he could have been playing a suited A for the flush draw as that would have made more sense to me than his weak str8 draw he was playing.

 
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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:36 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi kingkong,

Not sure what you're looking for here but I agree with joker, I think your play is great on this one. The only real question is the river bet but I think we should be putting him all in 100% of the time here. He is going to have a lot of Kx hands in his range that he's just calling us down with, unless he's got KQ specifically he may well check down a naked top pair if we check to him, but seems like is much more likely to call with it, so go ahead and bet.

@Joker, regarding the assessment of the villain, the most likely reason for his play is that he's just a fish. It's 2nl after all, he's playing a half stack and cold calling an EP raise with T9o, all signs of a weak player and they will chase draws whether they should or not. In this case I think the villain's flop call is good. He's got a disguised straight draw that is about 5-1 to complete on the turn, and while he's only getting 2.5-1 immediate odds, he's also got another 9-1 in implied odds behind which he can reasonably expect to extract from us a fair bit of the time since this board hits our range well and we will be on alert for the obvious draw (the flush) and not see the straight as easily should he hit a Q or 8. On the turn we pot it (.30 into .35) so now he's got to call .30 to win the .65 pot plus the other .65 in his stack, 4.3-1 max implied odds on a 5-1 shot for the river is a clear fold so bad turn call here. Of course this is my thought process, the villain's actual thought process was probably more like "I have a draw, I call!"


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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:13 PM
(#4)
joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
I think a lot of people too easily write off a player like that as weak instead of someone "goofing off". On one of my sites I have $200+ and when I've been drinking I know better than to play at my normal buy-in because most likely my BR would be damaged in the end so I go play 11c SNGs and I know of other players who do just the same.

The only way I see that we could say if you or me was right is for the OP to go back into their HH and look up the players games/stats as this would truly show what type of player we are against.

 
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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 02:33 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by joker41673 View Post
I think a lot of people too easily write off a player like that as weak instead of someone "goofing off". On one of my sites I have $200+ and when I've been drinking I know better than to play at my normal buy-in because most likely my BR would be damaged in the end so I go play 11c SNGs and I know of other players who do just the same.
Yeah, I don't disagree with you... and you can add me to the list of people who once in a while has a goof off session where I play below my normal stakes and play a bit crazy just to blow off steam. I think most if not all winning regs do this from time to time.

Still, it is much more likely the villain here is a fish rather than a solid winning player who is drunk or blowing off steam at 2nl for a session. I hope you'd agree this is basic law of averages... at any given time there are far more weak players in the 2nl player pool than strong players in goof off mode.

It makes for a nice point though about observational relevance... whatever the reason the villain is playing bad right now. So it's good for us to adjust to exploit him. If he's just a fish and doesn't improve his game then when we see him again he'll still be making these same mistakes... if he improves his game or is normally a better player, then he likely won't be making them, so even if we make some notes from this session the next time around we shouldn't trust those notes carte blanche, but should be looking for observational confirmation of what's going on then.


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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 03:17 PM
(#6)
joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Yeah, I don't disagree with you... and you can add me to the list of people who once in a while has a goof off session where I play below my normal stakes and play a bit crazy just to blow off steam. I think most if not all winning regs do this from time to time.

Still, it is much more likely the villain here is a fish rather than a solid winning player who is drunk or blowing off steam at 2nl for a session. I hope you'd agree this is basic law of averages... at any given time there are far more weak players in the 2nl player pool than strong players in goof off mode.

It makes for a nice point though about observational relevance... whatever the reason the villain is playing bad right now. So it's good for us to adjust to exploit him. If he's just a fish and doesn't improve his game then when we see him again he'll still be making these same mistakes... if he improves his game or is normally a better player, then he likely won't be making them, so even if we make some notes from this session the next time around we shouldn't trust those notes carte blanche, but should be looking for observational confirmation of what's going on then.
Absolutely I agree and it's safe to assume this as well. I think for me it's the turn call he made for 30c that I have a hard time believing that even a weak player would call that much with a gut draw. Maybe if it was open ended I could.

 
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Fri Dec 28, 2012, 01:00 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by joker41673 View Post
I think for me it's the turn call he made for 30c that I have a hard time believing that even a weak player would call that much with a gut draw. Maybe if it was open ended I could.
Well there you go... it's not a gut shot, it's a double gutter. He makes a straight with a Q or 8.


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