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2nl, is my turn call correct?

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2nl, is my turn call correct? - Sat Dec 29, 2012, 11:30 AM
(#1)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
Promised the player i played in this hand that I would post this hand for analysis.

So here goes...We hadn't played too much together and I had no real reads on him yet.

Folding to his turn raise would be a mistake, wouldn't it?


Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Sat Dec 29, 2012, 01:00 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Last edited by TheLangolier; Sat Dec 29, 2012 at 01:03 PM.. Reason: Deleted - duplicate post
 
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Sat Dec 29, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Rule,

First of all I think betting the turn is a mistake. The 9c while it gives us a gut shot to add some hand equity, it's also not a card that is going to increase our fold equity barrelling. The villain has called a big flop bet (more than pot size) in a 3 way pot with another player still to act, this shows more strength than normal imo. His range consists of more 2 pair+ slow plays than normal, some big pairs that playing cautiously because it's a 3 way pot, some draws. There can be some 1 pair hands like A6s and 77 in his range as well. None of this is really scared by the 9 though, so I don't rate our fold equity to be too high. Although we pick up 3 more outs it's not enough to just barrel away if we can't get too many folds... as it leads us into a real problem when he's got a hand since we'll be facing a check-raise. We are drawing to the nuts in a deep stacked situation, and really don't want to get blown off our draw or forced to pay a premium in a spot where getting there rates to get us paid for a huge pot. If he was slowplaying the flop, the hammer is coming. If he had 78, the hammer is coming since he got there. If he's on diamonds we don't really mind a free card since if he makes his hand we stack him up with the nuts.

So at this decision point I'd assume we've been had, he should be very strong here taking this action facing two large (pot size+) bets... I think we can not count an 8 or A as outs at this point, so we need a 7 or diamond. With the price we have to call this shove we need about 38.5% equity to break even calling the shove. Against a range of sets, straights (let's count all suited straight card combos and assume he won't play hands like 74o and 24o), and 56s we are in bad shape with only ~23.5% equity. It's not even close, easy fold. In order to make this a call we need him to be bluffing or spazzing out weaker hands quite a bit, not a likely prospect given the action sequence to this point.


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Sun Dec 30, 2012, 02:08 AM
(#4)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
Hi Lango,

Ty, as always, for the on point and prompt analysis.

I told this player that I would get blasted for this play! He was justifiably miffed at being sucked-out on.

I guess I called only because I had no real "solid" reads yet and I wanted him to show me two pair, a set, or better, if he could.

Probably not a good long-term strategy, paying full price with bad odds to gain a read, except that I won! haha!!...

Seriously, I called because I felt his ai was meant to price me out. I decided he only had a one pair type hand, probably a 6X type hand that called flop looking for a non-ace, non-paint turn. I decided I had as outs:

3 aces
3 eights
3 sevens
9 diamonds
-----------
18 outs

I needed 38% to call this turn shove and I figured I had 18 outs, so calling is only a slight mistake if i figure him for a one pair type hand, factoring in the fact that i crush many of his straight and flush draws I thought a call was right here.

If was I wrong and he held a straight, a set, or two pair, i still had a bunch of outs to the nuts...
 

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