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5nl zoom 6max - A4s in sb, blind v blind, Floater in the bb ... +/-EV to play?

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5nl zoom 6max - A4s in sb, blind v blind, Floater in the bb ... +/-EV to play? - Tue Jan 01, 2013, 04:53 PM
(#1)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Haven't submitted a hand in almost a month because it's been so busy in the Cash Game section lately - I guess now's my chance to squeeze something in?

Lately I've been trying to use player reads to plan my hands (to the extent that I plan, which is only meh ... ). But I've also added a 4th table recently, so sometimes I've been reverting back to auto-pilot with my raising range, only noticing the opponent's stats after my chips have gone into the middle.

Which is what happened here - everybody folded to us in the blinds, and I raised my suited A, only to then notice the bb's low 'fold to steal %' ... and more worrysome, his low 'fold to cbet' on both the flop and turn (combined with a high wtsd), and also a relatively high 'float %'. Here's his HUD stats and PokerTracker notes - only 78 hands, but he's been pretty active in the blinds:







Then we got the dryest of flops, and I didn't know what to do because I didn't make a hand, and I didn't expect to get a fold.





1. Should I even being playing a hand like mine against a villain like this?

2. And if so, should I have been 'one and done'?

3. Or should I have gone the other way and cbet the flop, turn, and river, no matter what?

4. Or been somewhere in between, with like a check-call once I made a hand (to let the villain bet, hoping my hand is good)?

Finally, is this somebody to be extra cautious about getting into pots against with only so-so hands, or is this somebody we want to get in a lot of pots with, knowing we'll get paid off quite well if we make a hand?


Thanks for the help! Hope everybody's having a nice day

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jan 01, 2013 at 04:57 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 01, 2013, 07:23 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
1. Yes. Villain is a loose passive fish. A4s is well ahead of his calling range and you should be able to win the pot with superior post-flop skills when you miss.
2. It's a fairly dry flop, but you probably have the best hand. Betting or checking are fine with me. You have a backdoor flush draw, so might want to delay the c-bet and see if you improve or pick up some outs on the turn, as this particular villain is probably calling your c-bet, so it's best to keep the pot small while you're unsure of your equity.
3. Firing 3-barrels into a calling station (35% WTSD) is suicidal. You beat players like that my making a hand and betting, not by bluffing off your stack with ace high.
4. On this board, I'd bet the turn for value/protection, as you usually have the best hand and villain will likely call with all his draws and overcards. This villain's AF is average/low, so I doubt he'd bluff often, so just bet for value and hope he calls down with no pair. All the draws missed, so checking on the river to induce a bluff might work well.

You want to play pots with a 30/14/2 player with any big cards as you'll often have him dominated. Heads up against him, be less inclined to bluff, but bet strongly when you make a good pair and take him to valuetown. (He'll probably call down with bottom pair, so top pair, medium kicker is a monster vs him). Hands like K9s and QT are good enough to play, as he'll have hands like K6, Q7, and T9 in his range. Be careful if he plays back at you at all. You can safely fold almost always if he re-raises you pre-flop or post-flop, as he's generally quite passive, so a raise means a monster.
 
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Tue Jan 01, 2013, 10:20 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey thanks so much for stopping by!!

I'm just starting to get more into my HUD stats, by trying become more familiar with all the other stats in addition to basic ones like VPIP/PFR/AF. Because I've been tending to rely on stats like the cbet stat to gauge a person's level of aggression and tendency to bluff post-flop, moreso than the AF, so I've found at least that one to be helpful.

Except that the cbet stats don't apply here. And you're right, the AF is pretty low - but yet this person did wind up bluffing two streets.

I went looking through the person's popups to see what sort of info's in there ... just because I've never looked in there before And guess what - it showed the funniest thing ... look at the villain's AF by street:






I'm not used to these stats - not sure how useful or reliable they are, but here they do reflect the fact that the villain was the type to bet a gut-shot in position, and try a bluff on the river? Which isn't behavior that was accounted for in either the AF or the cbet stat (which didn't even apply in this case)?


So many stats to look at - and there's always that question of sample size and reliability, etc. But still, sometimes it's pretty amazing how well they can predict peoples actions?

This post feels like it's very rambling ... I've been analyzing hand histories all day, and my head is swirling a bit ...
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 04:13 AM
(#4)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hi Sam,

I like how structured you do your hand posts - really good for the analyzer to read and work with, so keep that up!

I think you played the hand perfectly fine and I would play it pretty much the same. Also note that if you are looking at stat x also look at the number of instances that your tracker has counted the villain doing x - otherwise you might draw wrong conclusions from them. So when your tracker tells you this guys has a ftsBB % of 60 and this was only accounted for in 3 occasions, it wont help you that much. I would therefore treat samples of under 200, 500 or sometimes even 1000 hands with great caution.

To answer your questions:

1. Should I even being playing a hand like mine against a villain like this?

Yes. If you feel the villain is weak and you expect him to call from his BB a lot, A4s is a great hand even OOP.

2. And if so, should I have been 'one and done'?

You could cbet this with at least a little backdoor equity going for your hand, but against that villaintype and being OOP Im not a huge fan of cbetting this board too often.

3. Or should I have gone the other way and cbet the flop, turn, and river, no matter what?

If you decide to cbet flop you have to be thinking about his calling range OTF and the continue barreling on cards that are either good for your hand or bad for his range. Keep that in mind before you start betting.

4. Or been somewhere in between, with like a check-call once I made a hand (to let the villain bet, hoping my hand is good)?

That would be an option too, but probably not against a unknown player with passive tendencies. I think xf here is fine. It will also put you into a lot of tough turn spots lacking initiative.

Finally, is this somebody to be extra cautious about getting into pots against with only so-so hands, or is this somebody we want to get in a lot of pots with, knowing we'll get paid off quite well if we make a hand?

I would always go for getting involved with those guys


Live Trainer



 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 08:32 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I'm not used to these stats - not sure how useful or reliable they are, but here they do reflect the fact that the villain was the type to bet a gut-shot in position, and try a bluff on the river? Which isn't behavior that was accounted for in either the AF or the cbet stat (which didn't even apply in this case)?
It can take quite a few hands for the stats to be trustworthy, particularly the post-flop stats like c-bet and AF.
If this guy had seen 10 river cards and his river AF was 9, then that means he bluffs rivers often. If he'd only reached the river a couple of times, the stat is effectively meaningless, as he might have slowplayed a monster or rivered a huge hand.

A HUD can create information overload when you first get it, but - as a general rule - you want to play against villains with high figures for VPIP and WTSD, and low figures for c-bet and AF.
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 05:50 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
oh, ok thx everybody
 

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