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25NL Zoom Overvalued?

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25NL Zoom Overvalued? - Tue Jan 01, 2013, 11:36 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was a reg, 30/23, AF: 1.2 over 312 hands. Flop FCB: 47%(17), Turn FCB: 20%(5), Raise CB: 0%



I decided to take the bet-check-bet line here, partially for deception since it's a dry board. Bet-bet-bet could be an option but I hoped to get at least 2 streets of value. Didn't want to fold out weaker PPs OTT though his FCB% was low.

On the River Villain leads, could be a weak PP, or a Jack, might even be a Queen since I checked the Turn. I raised for value with trips Top Kicker.

He shoved. Of course he could hit a backdoor flush or hold QJ, but he could also showdown a weaker Jack like KJ, JT, J9. So is this a +EV call?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Tue Jan 01, 2013 at 11:42 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 07:02 AM
(#2)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Hi TANW,

This is a really weird played hand.

I am with you on the flop bet and its size.

On the turn, I beg to differ on the line u took. I would definitely bet for value this turn. If the opponent called the flop with some PP this is a good card for him to keep calling and if he called with a weaker J he might be willing to go with it right now.

When the villain leads on the river he is either doing so with a Q for value, with a J for value, with some sort of missed draw (68, 89) as a bluff. The raise I think is definitely fine for getting value from a rivered Q and from weaker trip J.
Your line to his eyes, it looks bluffy or exactly what it is a strong value hand. Against ur bluffs he would just call with trip Js or a rivered Q. Against ur value hands, like trips, I think he would still call with the Q and trip J (ur line doesn't look like overpairs KK, AA in order for him to believe he can get value from those hands with his obvious trips) and only raise with hands that can beat those.

All in all i think we have a clear fold on the river and If he can 3-bet bluff this river as a bluff then gratz to him, he is a better player than me and i m folding the best hand.

p.s. if there is some obvious leaks in my line of thinking, it would be great if the PSO trainer could point that out.
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 08:03 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I think betting the turn is better. You have a big hand, but villain called on the dry flop, so he has something too. If villain raises the turn, then he has a boat. If he just calls, he probably floated the flop with a backdoor FD and overs and now has the flush draw. On the river, your hand is rarely good, as the flush got there. There's definitely no value in raising his river bet. What can he possibly have that is worse than trips that will call a raise? He either hit the flush, or has you crushed with 77, 55, or QJ.
You can call and hope he shows a queen, but I'd prefer a fold. Certainly never raising, as you'll only get action from a better hand.
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 11:00 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

A couple points. First point is we should always be betting this turn imo. The flop is dry so the villain is very likely calling us with top pair or a pocket pair that isn't sold we have a hand yet since all we've done is c-bet once. Pocket pairs like 99 for example are more likely to call again as they don't think we have a jack when it pairs, and all his top pair combos have just made a costly 2nd best hand. Additionally his fold to c-bet stats are low, 47% on the flop and only 20% on the turn... in other words, he sticks around when he's got something and is reluctant to let go to a 2nd barrel.

Second point, know how you're going to respond to a shove on the river before you raise. If you have an easy fold, no problem... easy call, no problem... if you aren't sure how to respond to a shove after raising to $9.50, then seriously consider not taking that action. Raise a different amount that makes the decision against a re-raise more clear, or don't raise. This part of having a plan will help your decision making a lot as it will help you avoid putting yourself in difficult spots.

As played, I don't like raising this river tbh. It's pretty thin. The thing that is concerning is this villain is very passive post flop, and although we checked back the turn which may induce some bets, this is a big bet he's making, close to pot sized. Big river bets from passive post flop villains means strong hands. I doubt he would bet a queen, and can't see what hand he would call the flop with that contained a Q anyway, except of course for QJ. He would probably bet other jacks here, so KJ, JT, J9s. That would be 9 combos of hands we're beating. There are 3 combos of 77, 3 of 55, 3 of QQ (can't rule this out), and 3 of QJ. It's really hard to include flushes in his range because again, what 2 spades would he call the flop with??? Top pair+back door spades isn't possible since the Js hit the turn. A hand like As7s isn't either since we have the ace. About all that makes sense is like 8s6s. A bluff also doesn't make much sense to me... again what hand is he calling the flop with that is a bluff on this river? Pretty much all of his flop calling range is made hands of some sort, which are now either monsters or showdown value hands, and a passive guy check-calls showdown value hands in spots like this.

So long story short, we are probably slightly behind combinatorically when this villain type pots the river here, and that argues for just a call. If my ranging assessment is accurate, then raising is slightly -ev, assuming he pays off a raise with all Jx combos and reraise shoves all boats (should be a good assumption). So I would fold to the shove. I don't expect passive post flop guy to be taking this river line with KJ or worse.


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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 11:04 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by f1nlaion View Post
p.s. if there is some obvious leaks in my line of thinking, it would be great if the PSO trainer could point that out.
I think the range assessment on the river is the thing to look at. The villain is passive post flop and is potting the river, it's unlikely a Q plays this way and how did he get to the river with a bare Q? Also you discounted flushes completely, and while there are not likely many spade combos here we can't totally discount them as he's pretty loose preflop, so I can see him defending with 8s6s, 9s8s, 6s4s, all hands that would be continuing for 1 bet on the flop.


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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 05:24 PM
(#6)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I think the range assessment on the river is the thing to look at. The villain is passive post flop and is potting the river, it's unlikely a Q plays this way and how did he get to the river with a bare Q? Also you discounted flushes completely, and while there are not likely many spade combos here we can't totally discount them as he's pretty loose preflop, so I can see him defending with 8s6s, 9s8s, 6s4s, all hands that would be continuing for 1 bet on the flop.
Thnx for pointing that out Dave!

Pretty hasty of me to include the rivered Q, since only one hand with a Q might reach the river and that is AQ; with which he might call one bet on the flop (if we have big c-bet%) hoping his Ahigh is good.
Also I thought the raise on the river was fine, to get value from worse J, because I disregard combinatronics in my analysis
not good at it at all....
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 11:05 PM
(#7)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks all for your long analysis. Did read through every single line, appreciate it very much Didn't take into account that villain's AF was 1.2, being passive, thus thought he'll he shoving River with worse. Flatting his close to pot bet on River would have been ideal.

This hand's similar to the one during Live Training earlier. He held 77, hence the strong line. I really got to learn to find the Fold BTN against LPs.
 

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