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25NL Zoom Possible Laydown?

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25NL Zoom Possible Laydown? - Tue Jan 01, 2013, 11:49 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was LP, 54/13, AF:0.7 over 26 hands. Flop FCB: 43%(7), Flop donkbet: 17%(6)



So I raised the Flop and Turn for value with set. River he donks all in. He could have slowplayed a flopped flush, 53, or rivered a straight with 5x.

On the other hand, he could have an overpair, or bluffing the river to rep a 5. Are we getting the right price to make this call?
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 06:40 AM
(#2)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Hi TANW,

First of all, I think ur flop and turn line are perfect, bet sizing and all

As far as hand ranging is concerned, I would tend to rule out the flopped flushes and 53 because I would expect this sort of player to check-raise or simply call (with the intention of trapping) with these hands and not donk out.

Donking out on the flop, would seem to me like an overpair, flush draw or pair and str8 draw (45, 25, 56). All those 3 categories of hands would reach the river with the exact same line. However, the issue is which one of them would donk all-in the river. In general I wouldn't expect this sort of LP player to donk bluff the river with a missed flush. Certainly the overpairs wouldn't donk all-in. Therefore, the only hands that remain are the 5x with which he would definitely donk all-in.

p.s. i hope that he doesn't donk out his nuts, and check calls his draws on the flop and i turn out to look like a complete donk
 
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Wed Jan 02, 2013, 08:19 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
You played flop and turn perfectly and it looks like a bad beat.

Based on villain's stats, (particularly the very low AF), I think this is a calling station that chases every draw, no matter what the price. He's never bluffing here. If he didn't have you beat on the flop with a flush, he hit his gutshot on the river. Easy fold.
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 02:38 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

I agree with Arty... although the sample size is small the stats thus far are so gross in the LP station direction that I think it's a valid read to make at this point.

You asked if you're getting the right price to make the call, I think you have the tools to make this evaluation yourself at this point. We need to call $12.43 to win a pot of $36.79 so ~3-1 on our call means we need to be right 1 time in 4 to break even, or about 25% of the time. So, will this villain be value betting worse or bluffing in some combined amount close to this often or greater? The answer is no, very unlikely imo. He would check-call all worse made hands on a scary board after the strength you've shown. He might even check-call a 5 tbh. He's only shoving 5's and flushes. And passive stations don't bluff much (hardly at all). Especially on the river in a spot where the pot is big and they should expect to be called. There's probably a bigger chance he's overvaluing a worse set or 2 pair than there is that he's bluffing. In any case, all that stuff combined isn't likely to add up to 1 time in 4 against this opponent type, so I think it's a sigh/fold.

I see you called, I hope you got him this time, but ultimately don't think we get him nearly often enough here to make calling profitable.


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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 11:08 PM
(#5)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Haha didn't get him this time. Right to say that he'll almost never bluff on scary board after I showed massive strength. He got there with 65o
 

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