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10NL - to bluff or not to bluff?

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10NL - to bluff or not to bluff? - Wed Jan 02, 2013, 02:20 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Do we give up after the turn call? or do we take one last stab on this river?

Villain is 14/11/2 (217 hands)

 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 03:04 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi,


I'll admit when I read the subject line my first thought was "It's 10NL, so no, probably not". That being said, now that I've looked at the hand this might be one of the spots worth trying it.

Villain's range taking this line on the flop and turn:
-Flopped monsters (now a full house or quads)
-Moderate made hands (KK, JJ)
-Draws (gut shot, back door clubs, front door hearts maybe but will cbet this often probably)

Our range:
-Monsters
-Ax
-Qx
-Draws
-Bluffs

Since this villain is nitty (14/11 is nitty in 6-max) a river barrel should be enough to convince him off of KK/JJ type hands, especially when hearts completes.

It's important to note that while we have some measure of showdown value with 55, it's really only against busted draws, but since we can get TT/JJ/KK to fold sometimes here there's merit to turning our 5's into a bluff imo. Normally at 10NL and lower it's not my first thought, but against a nit, yeah, they fold too often so keeping an eye out for spots that make sense to try it is good.

If he checked back an ace on the flop (another possibility) then I'd expect to get called down, and make a note (stats don't tell the whole picture, just give a general impression... it's important to make notes and observe opponents too). Probably $1 is good here. If we get raised, super easy fold, he would rate to have either made hearts, or be full.


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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 03:54 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Dave,

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I'll admit when I read the subject line my first thought was "It's 10NL, so no, probably not".
Do you think taking bluffing lines as these will be unprofitable on micro stakes?

I do end up questioning myself sometimes when people call down my bluffs: "How does he call that?!" - So probably it's best to cut down bluffs and play ABC poker?

Thanks!
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 04:22 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hi Dave,

Do you think taking bluffing lines as these will be unprofitable on micro stakes?

I do end up questioning myself sometimes when people call down my bluffs: "How does he call that?!" - So probably it's best to cut down bluffs and play ABC poker?

Thanks!
Bluffing works better against villains who:

-Fold too much
-Hand read but aren't experts at it

The reason bluffing in micros is generally not a great idea is because so many players don't like to fold, and are just playing their hand and not ranging you too much. So you're essentially telling a story to someone who isn't listening, and doesn't fold if they have anything. That's a suicide bluff.

That being said, this is true for all levels, and just because there are more of these bad bluff candidates in micros than higher up, doesn't mean they are all bad candidates. In this hand for instance the guy is nitty so in the right situation it's reasonable to take a shot.

In general don't overdue it at any level though, especially in microstakes. Against the bad bluff candidates just value bet them like crazy and show them hands.


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