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5nl Zoom - AKs. Optimal River line?

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5nl Zoom - AKs. Optimal River line? - Thu Jan 03, 2013, 04:57 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639


The player is an unknown, unfortunately I can't remember if he was playing more than one table. Preflop, flop and turn all seem pretty standard to me. However on the river I'm unsure on the best line.

With the jack pairing on the river I don't think I can get called by a K, in which case a b/f would be a pretty bad option. Or could KQ and K9- call?

Similarly I'm not too keen on x/c either as he doesn't bet much, if anything, that is worse. I don't give players at 5nl credit for betting busted draws. So that leaves x/f hoping he checks behind.

Will he bluff the river if I check to him, or is it an easy x/f?

Thanks

Oliver


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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 01:03 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi Oliver,

It seems like you may be overthinking this one a bit. You don't think he'll call you down with a king (why not?), you don't think he'll bluff a busted draw, I mean if all that's true then I guess check-fold makes some sense, but I find it hard to believe all that stuff is true from an unknown.

I think I would bet-fold this spot. While the flop was wet, he doesn't rate to have too many flush draws since we hold both the A and K of spades, and the J is on the board. So a few small suited connectors is about it. The flopped straight draws that didn't get there have all made a pair since the ones that missed all contain a ten (T9, QT, AT) and thus they won't bet the river, likely to just check and show down their ten.

While you're not crediting 5nl players with betting busted draws too often, I think maybe also not crediting them enough for calling down too light. I think a bet of around $1 is good here, more of a token value bet, since his worse made flopped hands (basically Kx) will pay this off, and all his busted draws that made some showdown value in a pair of tens will be tempted to look us up as well. One thing 5nl players and in fact players at other levels don't do often is bluff raise the river however, so if we do get raised after betting I feel comfortable folding.


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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 06:12 AM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Dave,

I think some of the dreaded redults orientated thinking might be creeping in here. I ended up b/f to exactly $1, as at the time I thought nearly all the kings in his range would call. I guess being raised off my hand made me skew my thinking as he's never bluffing when he does so.

Also, do you in give players at this level credit for bluffing busted draws if you have yet to see them do it?

Thanks for all the help

Oliver


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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 10:08 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
Also, do you in give players at this level credit for bluffing busted draws if you have yet to see them do it?
I would remove the words "at this level" from the question. Some players will bluff if they can't win any other way, and some just won't. It may be more polarized at microstakes but still I think you'll find some of each.

So when they are a total unknown I generally try to approach it by ranging. How much of their range is moderate made hands (showdown value) and how much if it is busted draws (bluff potential). In this case there aren't many busted spade draws because of the cards we hold, and all the busted straight draws moved into the showdown value category pairing the ten. So it seems like betting is the best option.

If we truly don't think we can get called by worse, then we shouldn't bet obv, but I wouldn't be comfortable check/folding this hand strength since he could have some busted spades that he has to bluff to win, plus might overvalue Kx and bet it when we check.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Jan 04, 2013 at 10:14 AM..
 

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