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What to do!

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What to do! - Thu Jan 03, 2013, 06:05 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
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OK, me and a friend were having a debate regarding this hand of mine.

The disagreement comes over if I should have shoved on the river or taken a free card.

I believe I was right to check
My friend believes I was wrong

His argument was that it was better to play the Two Pair strongly with a shove and since I was heavily committed it showed strength and could have won me the hand without needing to showdown.

My argument is as follows :

: Opp Check-Raised the flop, suggesting strength and I either put him on Trips or AJ-AK
: Turn gets a bit weaker, he seemed to possibly be a bit fearful of the Queen, suggesting perhaps that he did have AJ or on the flipside was slowing down to keep me in the hand with trips or AK
: River comes with a King and he just stops. I quickly factor in that he check-raised before so could be again. I also factor in that his hand felt to be getting weaker and weaker each street but couldnt rely on that 100%. Next I had to take into consideration the AQ and AK. I had put him on AJ-AK so the fact that 2/3 of those cards were present to make him a better TP was a concern.
: With all of these concerns and within the short time that I had, I weighed up the most important one - Value

I reckon that one of two things were present here.

1 : He was very weak... his Ax hand got weaker when the Q and K showed up and he feared he was beat
2 : He was very strong... he either made a two pair with the Ace or was holding onto Trips.

If it was (1), he isnt calling a shove here. He thinks he is beat so why would he call?
If it was (2), he is definitively going to call a shove and I would be beat

By taking the free check, I decided that the Pot was big enough that I didnt need to risk running myself off a cliff and I was concerned that I wasnt getting any Value by betting here.


So in this spot, what is the right move?

Last edited by baud2death; Thu Jan 03, 2013 at 06:12 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 06:40 PM
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Hi baud2death!

I'd raise more on the flop (3x the opp's bet) to 600 and for me, I'm shipping the river here 100% of the time. If the river gave them 2 pair, so be it.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 06:47 PM
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Ovalman's Avatar
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I'm more aggressive in my betting and wanting my chips in sooner rather than later.

I've seen you ?twice? in the same games recently, I'm not ignoring you, just playing too many tables. If I haven't said hi you'll understand
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 06:58 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
I'm more aggressive in my betting and wanting my chips in sooner rather than later.

I've seen you ?twice? in the same games recently, I'm not ignoring you, just playing too many tables. If I haven't said hi you'll understand
Yeah dont worry about it... i never take it personally if someone doesnt acknowledge me, i appreciate people are busy
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 06:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi baud2death!

I'd raise more on the flop (3x the opp's bet) to 600 and for me, I'm shipping the river here 100% of the time. If the river gave them 2 pair, so be it.

John (JWK24)
Thanks for the reply.

Can I ask... is there not a concern about Value though?

If you feel your opponent won't call if he is behind but will call if he is ahead, is this not folly?
 
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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
Thanks for the reply.

Can I ask... is there not a concern about Value though?

If you feel your opponent won't call if he is behind but will call if he is ahead, is this not folly?
In these tourneys, players will call down with so much less, it's a +EV move over time.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Jan 03, 2013, 07:43 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
In these tourneys, players will call down with so much less, it's a +EV move over time.

John (JWK24)
Happy to be proven wrong so I can use this better next time.

Won't hear the end of it from my friend and it wasnt that i didnt trust his instinct on it as he is much better player than me, it just seemed to contradict what I have already learned about getting good value.

Thanks for the help
 

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