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2NL, minimising the loss

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2NL, minimising the loss - Fri Jan 04, 2013, 04:57 AM
(#1)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hello,

Bad beats happen and they cost a lot of money... However, anytime it happens to me I wonder if the loss could have been minimised? This is an example from today:



The villain in the hand seemed to be a solid player and a regular (6 tabling) and he was not getting out of line at all so i never expected him to be bluffing on the river. Although there are 2 worse full houses (A9 and T9, he would never trap AA preflop - always a 3bet with JJ+) that he can be shoving with I still do not know if that should have been an insta call like it was (Although I do realise that effectively I had 2nd nuts). What do you think? Is there any way to minimise the loss in this hand?

Thanks a lot

Tom
 
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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 05:38 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Yuk! Pre-flop I can see 99 in his calling range, but once the river comes a 9 it makes it less likely he holds two 9s in his hand. He could be value betting AT/A9 (but then again, I expect AT/A9 to be raising flop or turn) or a runner runner flush.

The only way you could've minimized your loss here is by flatting his river donk bet - but I think you will be missing value by not raising here more often than not. There are just few hands he could have played that way. AT/A9 (sometimes), 99, QhJh, slow played AA (not so likely due to the nature of the flop where you could hold a QJ/KQ type of hand) even then you have 70% chance to be the winner.

On the turn though, I think you could have made your bet a bit larger.

... reload and play
 
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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 08:32 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hi tommygun,

this is indeed a superugly riverspot. I doubt that a tight multitabling regular shoves AT here against your riverraise after you have fired 3 times on this board. He cannot possibly have 22, and there are only a few backdoorflush combos he can actually get to the river with. I wouldn't completely discount AA, and he can also have A9s and T9s.

I think it's a fold. Apart from that I think you played the hand fine, I would make it a tad more on each street since he can call flop + turn with all Ax hands.


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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 01:43 PM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
I think it's a fold. Apart from that I think you played the hand fine, I would make it a tad more on each street since he can call flop + turn with all Ax hands.
Hi Felix, I'm surprised with the fold line on 2NL
It might be best to flat his river donk if we are looking to fold to a shove. I mean we are only losing to 99 and AA (are there not more combos that we beat here?)
 
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Fri Jan 04, 2013, 02:15 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I'm going broke here 100% of the time. There are too many combos that you beat to even consider folding.
FWIW, I also bet bigger on every street. When you have a set, ace high flops are perfect for getting stacks in. If the hands were reversed, you'd expect villain to stack off a boat versus your quads, so this is just a cooler. On another day, you'd be getting the double up here.
 
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Sat Jan 05, 2013, 04:18 AM
(#6)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Sorry guys, I screwed up here

Since I somehow got the weird idea we would be losing to T9s and A9s I will have to stove and post results.


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Last edited by PSO-xflixx; Sat Jan 05, 2013 at 04:22 AM..
 
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Sat Jan 05, 2013, 04:31 AM
(#7)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Ok, so lets break this down:

- Since he flats pre from the BB we can discount some AA combos from his range

- Since he is a tighter player we can discount a lot of 9x combos when he xc on this flop

- Since he doesnt raise flop we can discount some T9s and A9s combos as well as AT

- Since he 3be/jams river we dont really know if we can discount QJhh or KQhh

That leads us to the question of what remains in his 3b/jamming range on the river. I actually think it might look something like this:

{ AcAd, AcAs, AsAd, 99, Ad9d, As9s, Td9d, Ts9s, Th9s }

Stoving against that range gives us 33% Equity so we can profitably call getting better than 1:2 on our money.

It definitely isn't a superhappy call since we may be beat here more often than not.

Then again, it is 2NL and even regs might play hands in crazy ways that you cant really think of (shoving backdoor flushes, calling flop with 9x and jamming etc.) - so all in all since there definitely should be value in raising the river here given villain's passive line, I think I would play the hand the same way.


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