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AKs very early in a MTT

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AKs very early in a MTT - Sun Jan 06, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Here's a hand that got me thinking.



This was in the Chrome Star freeroll from last night and I didn't fancy wading through 7,000 players for a min cash so I took a gamble and was one of the first to go out.

Now I know I should have folded but I've been thinking afterwards why I should have folded and can't come up with a good enough reason.

I'm 75% favourite in this hand so isn't that what we want? If it were AA then I'm usually an 80% favourite when facing 1 opponent so why does this hand differ from AA?

This isn't really a hand for analysis more for a discussion. I'd also like thoughts from any beginner on how you think of this as I think it could be a good thread to learn from.

Thoughts please?
 
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Sun Jan 06, 2013, 12:55 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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**moved to more appropriate forum since member says they're not looking for an analysis JWK24**


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Sun Jan 06, 2013, 12:58 PM
(#3)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
point proven on my improvements to the PSO thread.
 
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A K early - Sun Jan 06, 2013, 01:49 PM
(#4)
FireMedic815's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2,079
I am by no means in a position to give advice, but you said you wanted opinions so here is mine.

I think that was a tricky spot, and I don't know if you had reads on the player or not. A big pair like Jacks plus should never shove there so I would have put him on a small or middle pocket pair, or a weaker ace. I don't mind a fold there because if you're against a pair you're flipping for you tourney life. As it turns out you got in a huge favorite and got unlucky. I also don't really mind the call there either because he has enough worse aces in his range, and even if you are flipping if you win the flip you build a nice stack.

I hope this is the kind of feedback you were looking for, and I wish you good luck at the tables,

John
 
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Sun Jan 06, 2013, 02:03 PM
(#5)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Exactly what I'm after Fire.

No reads on my opponent and only my second hand into the tournament. As I said I'd fold 99% of every other time but I was a 75% favourite in the hand which ideally is what we want. I'd never fold AA in this spot which is an 80% favourite so why should AKs be any different?

I only called because I didn't want to wade through 7,000 players in a tournament worth around a 75c buy in. Risk v reward if you think about it.
 
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Sun Mar 03, 2013, 11:00 AM
(#6)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
MTT's are all about taking opportunities in order to build up your chip stack as best you can. Generally as a short/middle size stack if you're getting all of your chips in as a 60/40 or better favourite then that is still worth doing.

For the first 3-5 hands (i.e. until you've worked out whether you're at a table full of maniacs or nits) I'd say to only play QQ+, AK+ and to call any all-ins with them because too damn often people will shove with worse and give you a fantastic easy start to the tournament, something worth the occasional time that you donk out super early.


Not a terrible play by you at any rate.
 
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Sat Mar 09, 2013, 06:51 AM
(#7)
DonV73's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
Here's a hand that got me thinking.

This was in the Chrome Star freeroll from last night and I didn't fancy wading through 7,000 players for a min cash so I took a gamble and was one of the first to go out.

Now I know I should have folded but I've been thinking afterwards why I should have folded and can't come up with a good enough reason.

I'm 75% favourite in this hand so isn't that what we want? If it were AA then I'm usually an 80% favourite when facing 1 opponent so why does this hand differ from AA?
Personally I would have folded. It's not a cash game and you cannot rebuy. It's a tournament so the point is to get as far as you can, at least ITM. If you would have folded you just lost only 3 bb. You will get much more chances. With Aces it would best to fold here too. But that's my humble opinion. I hope this helps.
 
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Sat Mar 09, 2013, 05:27 PM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hi ovalman.

To me,this is a clear and easy CALL.

Here are my reasons...

1: It's a freeroll. OK,you've worked it out that you feel this particular freeroll has an equivalent monetary buy-in value of $0.75,that's still fine. I'm sure you know well enough that the majority of the players in these will ship like this with Ax,any 2 Broadways,any pair,tons of suited combos and lots of connectors as well. In other words we're ahead of a lot of the range of what players are capable of spazz shoving here,we CRUSH a fair percentage of that,and we're flipping with all of the pairs except the AA and KK hands.

So our odds are good here.

2: Making this play fits the battle plan you took into this MTT..."willing to gamble early in lieu of nitting it up to a min-cash".

When we go into a game we should always have an idea of a plan,as whilst lots of different situations can and will influence individual situations in any game we play,if we have an overall plan for a particular type of game (STT's are different from 45 man's,are different from 180's,are different from freeze-out MTT's...standard blinds,turbos...you get the drift)then when situations arise where a path forward on how to continue in a hand isn't obvious having the situation wherein said hand arises fall into the parameters of our plan gives us a clearer path.

THAT'S what happened here. You got the type of hand,in the scenario that fits the parameters of what you were looking to do going in, pretty much to a T.

Don't second guess the play then. Instead ask yourself if the plan makes sense to you. If the answer is yes,then when spots that play into that come along (like this one...) just stay true to the plan and go with it.


Myself I'm pretty much going to be perfectly happy to ride AK HU for stacks this early in any freeroll (and most mini-micro $ MTT's as well...)as it is. Given the parameters of the plan you laid out going in,were I playing with that mindset (and in freerolls I pretty much ALWAYS have that mindset...get a stack early or bust) then it's an insta-call for me.

Given what your intentions were I think you 100% made the right play here.

Run better next time.
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 08:35 AM
(#9)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Personally, I probably wouldn't call here. The only hands we're really beating are worse aces. While there are quite a few of them (disregarding crap aces), there's tons and tons of pairs he could shove with. AK is just an ace and a king and you can't win a tournament in the early stages. A double up is great but it's not worth the risk in my opinion. Then again, it was a freeroll and that complicates things. I hate the expression but I'd probably wait for a better spot than all in preflop with an unpaired hand.


....
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 01:59 PM
(#10)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Hi ovalman.

To me,this is a clear and easy CALL.

Here are my reasons...

1: It's a freeroll. OK,you've worked it out that you feel this particular freeroll has an equivalent monetary buy-in value of $0.75,that's still fine. I'm sure you know well enough that the majority of the players in these will ship like this with Ax,any 2 Broadways,any pair,tons of suited combos and lots of connectors as well. In other words we're ahead of a lot of the range of what players are capable of spazz shoving here,we CRUSH a fair percentage of that,and we're flipping with all of the pairs except the AA and KK hands.
This
 
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Thu Mar 21, 2013, 03:25 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
In the big $2.20 this early its a reluctant fold for me in this freeroll with no read this is a for sure call given the hands that usually get turned over here.

Grade b


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Sat Apr 06, 2013, 03:38 AM
(#12)
Brad52286's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 125
Think of AK as pocket 3's

AK is still a drawing hand no matter how you think of it,
I personally hate AK amount of times it's cost me a final table!

Early in a tournament i'd raise 3x if some-one shoves in a buyin $10+ fold it
but in this case AK suited 1st hand in a 7k field freeroll basically... had to go with it.
Just got very unlucky.

Good post
Goodluck
 
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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 03:07 AM
(#13)
d_burnt1's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 6
BronzeStar
In this situation (ONLY because its a freeroll) I think AKs is just as good as AA.
First hand of freerolls see some rubbish hands played so AKs is nice, in my opinion, on first hand.
If it was me though, I probably would have raised to 4x pot (hopefully scaring away the A8??).
But DEFINITELY if an opponent re-raises to all-in I'd fold.

I'm no pro, but these were my thoughts when I saw the vid.
 
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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 05:14 AM
(#14)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I add my weight to the people saying to call.

1. It's a freeroll and even though its not open to everyone there a lots of idiots in it.

2. AK is strong enough to go with in tournaments like this for the reasons already outlined ie dominating other aces and flipping against every pair up to QQ. I'm happy to take that in a freeroll.
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 08:37 PM
(#15)
DaveEzimode's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 1
As played fold. You are flipping at best most of the time, which isn't what you to be doing in the first level of a tournament. You have to think your edge is better than flipping right away.
 
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Sun May 26, 2013, 06:01 PM
(#16)
Keed Spills!'s Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 2
Fist Pump time, gii and Good Luck!

couple of things that take from spots like this

Villain is a random

people want to get value out of big hands and v bet them,

free rolls are full of players looking to gamble a big stack up or bust out and you see crazy play.

Your hand is premium and it sucks that you lost, a lot of the time you would be flipping or in good shape and a small % of the time you need to get hit a 9/1 shot, definitely a +ev call here though.

A fold is the lower variance play, maybe in a tournamaent that had a higher importance its worth taking this line but imo a little tight in this particular spot.

Last edited by Keed Spills!; Sun May 26, 2013 at 06:12 PM..
 
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Sun May 26, 2013, 10:14 PM
(#17)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I'm a well known nit, and I'm shoving this hand in a freeroll. I've seen some very bad hands all in pre in the very early stages.

 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 01:01 AM
(#18)
blainetoms's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 22
you got your money in 70/30 (73/22/4 to be exact), imagine how rich you would be in poker if you got every hand in like that, you're never folding AKs in that spot.
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 09:57 AM
(#19)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Here's my analysis after quite a few of you have commented.

Watch the hand again...

I called as a 70/30 favourite but I didn't know I was a 70/30 favourite. We also have villian 8 in the pot to act after us so we don't know what his line will be. This may be a freeroll but even a freeroll has a value attached to it. If villian 1 has 22 he's a marginal favourite in the hand and the odds have significantly changed.

Would you make the same call if you paid for entry in this tournament?

If we win the hand we double our stack but if we lose the hand then we're out of the tourney. If we win, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll win the tourney but if we lose then it certainly means we won't. We're only at the start of the tourney, there will be far better spots to play with our stack that won't risk our tourney while increasing our stack.

Play this hand out 10 or 100 times and we're gone from 30% of all games. Make this decision in a STT and it's a very costly mistake.

Over the long term I think this call is a big -EV decision. A fold is the right play whether it's a freeroll or not. This Chrome Freeroll was worth around a 75c buy in. I think we should treat freerolls the same as if you're buying in with your own money and treating every game the same.

Last edited by Ovalman; Fri May 31, 2013 at 10:00 AM.. Reason: small typo
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 05:50 PM
(#20)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
Here's my analysis after quite a few of you have commented.

Watch the hand again...

I called as a 70/30 favourite but I didn't know I was a 70/30 favourite. We also have villian 8 in the pot to act after us so we don't know what his line will be. This may be a freeroll but even a freeroll has a value attached to it. If villian 1 has 22 he's a marginal favourite in the hand and the odds have significantly changed.

Would you make the same call if you paid for entry in this tournament?

If we win the hand we double our stack but if we lose the hand then we're out of the tourney. If we win, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll win the tourney but if we lose then it certainly means we won't. We're only at the start of the tourney, there will be far better spots to play with our stack that won't risk our tourney while increasing our stack.

Play this hand out 10 or 100 times and we're gone from 30% of all games. Make this decision in a STT and it's a very costly mistake.

Over the long term I think this call is a big -EV decision. A fold is the right play whether it's a freeroll or not. This Chrome Freeroll was worth around a 75c buy in. I think we should treat freerolls the same as if you're buying in with your own money and treating every game the same.

Oval,go back and read your reasoning for why you called in this spot in posts #'s 1&5,and compare that to what you're now saying in the last paragraph here. You're changing your story and now trying to fit a justification of a fold into your revised thought process. In other words,you're second guessing your original decision,which IMHO WAS the right play to begin with. I won't change my mind on that.

Even were we to disregard your original comments on your thought process for this freeoll and how you were willing to gamble it up instead of nitting a min-cash,this would still be a spot where I call with AKs all day.

One: It IS a freeroll. That matters. A lot. Because it plays into our reasonable expectations of what other players abilities and tendencies may be. Spewers will be the rule,not the exception early in any freeroll. This HAS to be taken into account.

Two: Now you say that we can't KNOW that the villain was going to be holding A8o here. True,trying to guess a particular,or even very narrow range,for the villain to be holding is not good. Not without a lot of prior history and a gold plated read.

But we CAN put the villain on a range of hands. As I pointed out in my first post here. Personally with no prior knowledge on the villain I would not be uncomfortable at all putting them on 20% plus the 22-55 pairs as well as a top range for them. And that's being charitable to anyone who shoves 75BB over a 3x raise and call in my book.

Against that range we're 62.5%>45.5%. In a freeroll that's plenty good enough for me with AKs since I know that out of all the villains range there are only 2 hands that I'm really loathe to see. Any other pairs and we're basically flipping and all the non pair combos we're in great shape.

As to the players still left to act...if the button or blinds wake up with a real hand then they do. Can't be helped. As to villain 8 who flatted our 3x open...if they were set mining a mid to small pair then this is going to be a real hard hand for them to call. If they have say 99-QQ it's just another hand we're flipping against. Our likely situation doesn't change against one or 2 lesser pairs really...we need an A or K to board and for them not to hit their set(s). If they call with any non-pair hand then we love it,best they can ever be is the same as us,AKs. We beat the dog out of any other holding. So bring it.

Three: So the main question becomes is this Tournament EV or not. And to me this hits solidly in the bullseye of the "It Depends" board.

In any standard freeroll,including this one,yeah...my chips are in without a second thought. League game,never. Always folding.

You asked on money games,would we make this call. I can only go by the games I mainly played when Americans were on here myself.

The .10 ($50 added) and .25 ($100 added) MTT's...I'm calling every time in the dimes and most every time in the .25. Would have to be a player I had marked as tight not to call.

As for multi-table SNG's...the .10 360's I'm like to sprain my thumb I'm hitting call so fast. The .25 45 and 90 man's...same as the .25 MTT,minus a solid read on the villain as tight then I'm getting it in here.

Only STT's I played were 50/50's and given the nature of those games I agree with you 100% on this being a leak call in that structure. It may be for higher level MTT and multi table SNG's as well,but not in most micros I think. Just too many players who are perfectly capable of shoving so many worse hands than our AKs as far as I'm concerned.
 

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