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premier league - Tue Jan 08, 2013, 11:08 PM
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milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
this hand came up in a premier league game, i remember thinking i wasnt very comfortable with all the action in front of me, i know survival is key in these games but with under 10bbs and the chips in the pot,i thought this was as good a place as any to get it in, although it worked in my favor is this the correct play mathematically? i got berated a bit on the table for my decision but i thought maths wise it was correct? can some one with more knowledge on the calculations offer me a answer please




i worked the math to be 4:1 and we have %32.5 equity wich i thought makes this +ev please correct me if im wrong

Last edited by milehigh0874; Wed Jan 09, 2013 at 12:14 AM..
 
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Wed Jan 09, 2013, 01:09 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi milehigh0874!

With this being a league game, into a most likely 4-way pot, I'm mucking AK here, as I'm probably not at breakeven points. I wouldn't even consider taking a chance like this, even if it was +EV (we'll get to that in a min) until I'm well into + league points for the game.

Now.. let's see about whether or not it is a +EV play. I need to call 2200 into a pot that will be 7340 (30%).

Since this is a league game, I need to assign a tighter range to each of the opps that could be in the hand. I'll use a top 15% hand for the initial raiser, top 10% for the 3-bettor and a top 5% for the 4-bettor. The ranges could even be tighter than this with it being a league game, but with no reads, this is what I'd estimate.
If all 3 stay in the hand, from pokerstove, I get a hand equity of 23.6%... a clear fold.
If only the 3 and 4 bettors stay, I'm at 31.3%, which is a marginal call.
If only the opp that raised to 4k stays, my hand is worth 46.5%, which is an easy call.

The key here is to know whether or not the first two would fold. If so, then I'm calling, BUT, the majority of the time, this could end up a 3 or 4 way pot and due to that, I'm mucking.
Also, if any of the opps, especially the 3 or 4 bettor were playing very tight (which could easily happen in a league game), then I would need to lower their range of hands and doing this at all would make the 3-way pot a fold, instead of a call.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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re post - Wed Jan 09, 2013, 01:42 AM
(#3)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
thnx jw
this is where it confuses me a bit in the calculations,the button 4 bet is to 4000 making the pot 6600 if i call im all in,making the pot 8800 with 2 players to act either adding more to the pot or folding, 1 folds, 1 calls, so as the hand plays,purely on a equity basis, im putting 2500 in to make a 8800 pot, before the last 2 players act , my equity is basically 33%, so if the pot is bigger than 7500 when i put my chips in, its is a +ev position and i must be right 1/3 times to make this call +ev , is this correct?
 
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Wed Jan 09, 2013, 01:48 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi milehigh0874!

The opp bet more than your stack, so you can only count as many chips of thiers as you have. Effectively, their bet is 2500, not 4k... since you can't play for all 4k of their chips. Also, for the opps that are left to act, you cannot count any chips from them, except for what they already have put in.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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re post - Wed Jan 09, 2013, 01:58 AM
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milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
thnx jw
 

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