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2 NL FR Zoom Pair and Flush Draw

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2 NL FR Zoom Pair and Flush Draw - Thu Jan 10, 2013, 06:49 PM
(#1)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
Is the call on the turn correct with a pair and flush draw?

I put a range for an UTG limper into pokerstove and I am favourite over their range, on the flop and turn.

I have no reads on the villain.

 
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Thu Jan 10, 2013, 07:59 PM
(#2)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
My thoughts. The range of a FR limp utg who pots it on a Qc3dKd board?

Thinking 33, draw, Qx, Kx as possibly AQ+ 88+ maybe would raise.

If it's a Q you're out kicked and a K you are drawing and not to the nut flush.

OK floating once and the turn 9. A bit sick 99 should raise utg IMO and now you face another pot size bet losing to even K2o?

Making the turn call 34/16 = 2:1 with 11 outs? Not me but I can be nitty, though shoving the flop bet I can be a aggressive.

Let the HA team help with the math.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Thu Jan 10, 2013 at 09:59 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Thu Jan 10, 2013, 09:35 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
You said you have no reads on the villain, so how do you go about assigning a range for an UTG limp?
What do you narrow that range down to when he pots it on the flop?

It looks a lot like AK, KQ and 33 to me. He might even have AA and was going for the old limp-reraise trick. You're in pretty terrible shape against those hands.

I think you can peel one off and see if you make the flush, 2 pr or trips, but I'm folding to any bet on the turn if I don't improve.
 
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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 01:08 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi Rex,

Interesting spot! I would actually lead out on this flop, not check... the limper can have a lot of worse hands he might call with, as can V2. And we can get called by slighly better hands like QT that may fold to a turn barrel. And our equity here is reasonable even against better hands.

I agree with Arty that his range seems presumably pretty strong after he pots the turn, but imo if that's true I think it argues for a call... although we're only getting 2-1 immediate odds to hit a flush, with implied odds of his stack it maxes out at 9-1. Whenever we look at implied odds it's important to consider not just that they are available, but that the villain will be willing to give some of them up if we make our hand. If his range is as strong as it looks, I think we are much more likely to get paid when we get there. The only thing is in going with this though process, we need to bet the river when we do, checking is too risky that he just checks back some of his strong hands, specifically 2 pairs shouldn't like that board any more too much. We want to be sure to get the odds we drew for. If we pot the river that ups our ante to 5-1 received if he calls, and if the read was right he'll call.


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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 05:35 AM
(#5)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
Thanks for the replies.

I gave my opponent a range of any pair, any broadway and suited aces and suited connectors, pre flop, they could be wider or narrower, but in my experience a limp first to act fits around that range.

On the flop a pot size bet of three big blinds could be a pair , a draw , two pair or a set.
 

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