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10NL - KK raised on the turn

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10NL - KK raised on the turn - Fri Jan 11, 2013, 05:33 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi there,

Our villain is unknown

My first thought here would be to call and re-evaluate river
But what type of hands can he raise the turn with here; 66,22,44 all make sense but can he also be raising with AQ to justify a call? Even when we call the turn, there are no river cards that will force him to check behind. I'm not sure I see any bluffs in his range.

Is this a spot where we should nit out and fold?

 
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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 09:58 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

This looks to me like a fairly classic Baluga theorem spot.

It's a single raised pot and the stack to pot ratio is 13, so I don't think it's going to be profitable playing for stacks post flop with just kings (might be against some really bad players but we have no reads). We c-bet 2/3rds pot on a totally dry board and he calls. His range here should be Qx, pocket pairs, a few monsters (sets), and occassional air that's floating us. On the turn we make another sizable bet, about 70% of the pot, and the villain is raising. Unless he's really bad (again no reads so we don't know) we shouldn't expect Qx or pockets to raise us, Qx probably calls and pockets fold, floats probably give up (very very small chance he floated with something that turned a big equity boost, like As5s, and is semi-bluffing). So that leaves a range that is likely polarized to monsters and a few semibluffs. And some players just don't semi-bluff the turn as they don't want to get 3b all in here and get blown off their draw, especially so with the strength we've shown in our 2 barrel bet sizing. So without any reads I think we have to weight him more towards monsters. If we call this bet there'll be 7.75 in the pot with 6.20 behind, are we calling a river shove? Yuck.

My vote is for Baluga on this one... begrudgingly fold.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Jan 11, 2013 at 10:01 AM..
 

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