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10NL - bad spot for a set?

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10NL - bad spot for a set? - Fri Jan 11, 2013, 06:07 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I chose to flat pre since the villain has a high fold to 3bet stat. He is 30/25/2 and steals 48% What do you think of this line? Do you think we could be value owning ourself? The river card is very disgusting but is there any chance we are x/f here or just jamming the rest in?

 
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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:05 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

Preflop flat is fine. I don't like your turn betsizing tbh, the villain has called a very largely sized flop check-raise, 3.4x the size if his bet... he's got something probably fairly strong (or he's a fish if he calls this action with a weak hand). So I think 1.77 into 2.95 is too small. Options I like better:

Potting it for 2.95 - strong draws that flatted the c/r on the flop and didn't reraise will probably call it. If he had the nut flush draw he'll call it for sure, but....

Jam all in - It's the size of the pot but this could be a spot where we will get called off by worse. The nut flush draw probably can't find a fold now when they make top pair. And the action looks like we don't want a call, like we might be semi-bluffing, so we could actually get hero called by hands like QQ here in the hands of a weaker opponent.

Check-raise all in - this one is a bit riskier as we offer a free card, but it feigns like the ace scares us and I would expect a loose-aggressive villain to bet if they have the ace as well as to rep it with weaker hands. And the stack sizes are really nice for the play, if he bets 1.50-2.00 our shove for his remaining 3.15-3.65 is sized well.

Given the wetness of the board, the likelihood we're ahead right now, and the strength the villain shows in calling our oversized check-raise on the flop, this is one of those rare cases where I'd opt for an overbet jam on the turn for value (rare because usually this costs us value but here I think we're more likely than normal to get it).

River I'd probably check and give him a chance to bluff or then value bet worse. If we jam it seems really hard for him to call without at least a ten. I wouldn't check-fold, our hand is too strong and we basically beat everything that doesn't contain a ten.


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