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10NL - call river or raise?

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10NL - call river or raise? - Fri Jan 11, 2013, 06:11 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain is a fish 25/6/1; are we flatting river here or raising for value? If we get shoved over the raise do we fold?

 
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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:21 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

First of all this is a pretty marginal open preflop imo. Also I don't like continuation betting air in a multi-way pot like this, heads up or 3 handed it's fine but 4 handed+ I think we're just burning money c-betting air hoping everyone called pre with something other than an ace and they all whiffed.

When this guy calls our flop c-bet on a 100% dry board he's basically got one of 2 things most of the time... an ace, or better. Since his bet sizing on the river is less than half the pot, it looks a bit like just an ace to me trying to get paid by KK. Being the thin value bettor that I am, I am in favor of raising here to about $3. The keys here are that I think this opponent (loose-semipassive fish) will always call with Ax, and will only raise again with 2 pair+. In fact he may not raise with some better hands like A7 or A2 simply because he's scared we backed into diamonds. But if we are good more than 50% of the time our raise is called, AND we don't have to be concerned with being reraised by worse hands, then I think going for a value raise is good (and fold to a 3b from this guy).


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