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Aces dealt 13-14% less often than other pairs?

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Aces dealt 13-14% less often than other pairs? - Sun Jan 13, 2013, 06:45 AM
(#1)
figaroo2's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 14
I have been using Holdem Manager for a few weeks and decided to look at the frequency with which I have been dealt the various pairs. Interestingly over a 20,000 hand pokerstars cash games hud I had aces 13% less often than any of the other pairs, I then went to my Ipoker cash games hud (14,000 hands)and found I had also had aces 14% less than any other pair on that site as well..... coincidence?? Over different sites? I'm skeptical about randomness here.
Tourny play the randomness was ok over 43,000 hands over both sites.
Could other users check this out with their stats please and report back.
Use the holdem hole cards grid feature and use the drop down to change from bb/won/lost to hand count and hover over each pair to see how many times you have been dealt that pair.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 08:00 AM
(#2)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Your sample isn't big enough.

I could probably pick out a lot of anomalies in my 350,000 hands I have stored, for instance I've only hit quads once in that time while I've hit 2 royal flushes.

Just concentrate on playing winning poker, there is nothing wrong with the RNG. When you have a few million hands stored then look at your stats again.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 08:05 AM
(#3)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
And think about your sample, you hit AA once in only 221 hands, so in theory you should have 195 occurrences in your sample. You say you have 14% less than this so you have 168 hands stored. That's not a big difference and well within the statistical norm.
 
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I must be due a good run then - Sun Jan 13, 2013, 11:38 AM
(#4)
figaroo2's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 14
Hand Occurrences

AA 74
KK 90
QQ 96
JJ 87
TT 103
99 111
88 99
77 116
66 93
55 91
44 92
33 91
22 81

(expected occurrence for sample size 90.2 19955 hands)

I shall stick it into excel at work and see if anything is statistically significant. What concerns is that the levels are similar on different sites both on the cash games. I just wanted other HM2 users to check. I'd hate to start conspiracy theories.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:10 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
Your sample isn't big enough.
^This^

A couple months ago I was running a program that deals a NL-holdem hand to one player and records what they got. I was running 1 million hands or more at a time and regularly seeing variation in percentages for the rarer hands(quads+). Over 20,000 hands no doubt a lot of variation will be seen in much more common hands such as 1 pair.

If you don't believe it I could possibly set up my program to run 20,000 hands. I could then compare the results to the expected outcome.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:17 PM
(#6)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
hi figaroo,

taken from a 129,296 hand sample of holdem ring rames

K8o - 1095
84o - 1091
98o -1084
55 - 626
88 - 615
TT - 610
JJ - 601
44 - 600
66 - 593
AA - 593
QQ - 588
22 - 580
33 - 579
KK - 570
77 - 553
99 - 551
75s - 431
87s - 428
Q9s - 427
65s - 427

my poor 9's at the bottom of the heap, I think you have been stealing some of the 9's i should be being dealt whats with that?



Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by Grade b; Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 12:20 PM..
 
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yes my sample isnt massive,,,, thats not what i asked - Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:38 PM
(#7)
figaroo2's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 14
Well the expected outcome is 90 times for the sample size as we showed.
I asked for other users to check their stats.
I do trust pokerstars! Mind you I used to trust full tilt!
I cant imagine why any site would want to reduce the amount of AA dealt in cash games, it would reduce the rake...more AA = more money in pot.
When you check ones stats and find I an well down on AA compared to other pairs on two sites wouldn,t you raise an eyebrow?
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:40 PM
(#8)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by figaroo2 View Post
Well the expected outcome is 90 times for the sample size as we showed.
I asked for other users to check their stats.
I do trust pokerstars! Mind you I used to trust full tilt!
I cant imagine why any site would want to reduce the amount of AA dealt in cash games, it would reduce the rake...more AA = more money in pot.
When you check ones stats and find I an well down on AA compared to other pairs on two sites wouldn,t you raise an eyebrow?
Given the situation and data you have presented, no I wouldn't.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:45 PM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
You have 2 x the sample which is why I quoted 195 times you were due it.

Just because you are 13% less than the norm doesn't mean the RNG will catch up with you. The rng has no memory or where it deals to. Just concentrate on what you do with the cards you actually get. The game is fair for all, everyone has the same rng cards.
 
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Sun Jan 13, 2013, 02:30 PM
(#10)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
AA - 2344 - 7.57%
KK - 2370 - 7.66%
QQ - 2402 - 7.76%
JJ - 2447 - 7.90%
TT - 2331 - 7.53%
99 - 2419 - 7.81%
88 - 2408 - 7.78%
77 - 2414 - 7.80%
66 - 2382 - 7.69%
55 - 2322 - 7.50%
44 - 2406 - 7.77%
33 - 2322 - 7.50%
22 - 2392 - 7.73%

Out of 527,533 hands got 30,959 pairs and as you can see they are very close
 

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