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25NL Zoom TPTK River Action

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25NL Zoom TPTK River Action - Fri Jan 18, 2013, 11:56 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was 24/15, AF: 3.8 after 369 hands. CO Stl: 19%(37), F3B: 30%(10), 4bet: 0%(9)
Flop FCB: 41%(22), Flop FCB(3bet pot): 50%(6), Turn FCB: 36%(11), Turn FCB(3bet pot): 0%(1)



As played, I 3bet and cbet 2 streets for value. OTR, the Jack came kind of disturbing. Given his low FCB stats, I had planned to get 3 streets of value of course if I hit the flush, but also if I hit the King. But, the fact that he called 2 streets could mean he could have AJ, QQ as well as AK.

I hope to get value from QQ and worst Kings but betting the river might look like we have AJ they might fold those hands. Also by betting we're value-owning ourselves if he does have a Jack.

By checking, we're missing value and left guessing if he bets. A thinking player would expect a Jack to bet the River. So when checked to, he may bet a King here or just bluff with worse to rep the Jack.

So, what action should we have taken OTR? All-in, check-call, check-fold?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:11 AM..
 
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Sat Jan 19, 2013, 07:37 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Awesome, preflop I would elect to make my 3bet larger say 10-11bb. 1. we will offset his positional advantage 2. since he does not F3b often, I'd like to build a bigger pot with my value hands
OTF, I'd go for a 3$ bet here (I'd start by ranging his hands on this flop; 99,TT,JJ,QQ,QTs,QJs,KJs,AJ,AK)
OTT, against that same range we still have like 67% equity in which case we are betting for value I suppose. Not sure if a x/c would acheive anything better than a bet here?
I would expect alot of his hands to be raising somewhere along the flop or turn. Hands like 99 and KJ and some hands to fold the turn like: QJ
So what we are left with OTR is: QQ,JJ,TT,QT,AJ,AK. Hands that will check back are AK,QQ,TT and the rest is betting for value.
Rarely QQ/TT will turn their hand into a bluff here? I think he will show alot of slow played 99,JJ or a QT,AJ most of the time when he bets after our river check. I don't see too many bluffs in his range that called 2 streets here and we hold the A and K of hearts which makes it less likely he is drawing to a flush. I'm going for a x/f. Yuk!
 
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Sat Jan 19, 2013, 03:36 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

I'm going to make a suggestion as I've noticed a bit of a pattern in your posts... it revolves around the somewhat blanket statements like this: "I... cbet2 streets for value." Before you bet for value it's important to define what you're getting value from (what worse hands will villain call with). This is a function of the villains range, tendancies, etc.

In this hand I do think betting twice is good. Maybe this guy won't call with a hand like TT on the turn, but that's ok, because if true he probably won't call the river with it either unless he improves to beat us. But I think his range is wide enough to get value from worse made hands... the thing I notice in this villains stats you've provided is that he is not a stealer from the cut off (COStl 19% is just a drop more than his over all 15%), but once he does enter a pot he doesn't like to fold. Not to 3b's, not to cbets. This is an indicator to me that this villain is perhaps largely playing his own hand and not thinking too deeply about ranges. When he opens here it's probably with a hand strength he deems "good", and he's going to see the flop with it regardless of your 3b because his hand is "good". While a thinking player will probably fold hands like QJ etc to your 3b quite a bit, he won't because hey, it's "good" (in his eyes). He will also not release easily post when he has anything going for him, pairs, draws, etc. Although your line should look very strong, and against a solid player I would question the value of value betting the turn is it seems really hard to find worse hands in their range to call, in the case of this guy I think it's a reasonable assessment that he both will have worse hands in his range AND will call with them.

The river is pretty gross. I'm not sure shoving is going to get called by enough worse hands, since a lot of those just sucked out on us. The obvious ones that he can hold that will call are KQ and KT, and K9s that we just drew out on. Not sure if he's calling down with QQ or TT. So much of the rest of his turn range includes jacks, and some slow played monsters. I would really look at his show down stats, if he shows down a lot shoving is probably close, but if they are more normal then this is probably just a check-fold. When we check I expect he will check back all his showdown value hands that we're beating, and only shove with trips+, we shouldn't need to be too worried about him turning a hand like KT into a bluff if my assessment of the villain type is accurate.


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Sun Jan 20, 2013, 03:56 AM
(#4)
KKNgroup's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 70
WOW! Really nice analyze by TheLangolier
 
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Sun Jan 20, 2013, 06:20 AM
(#5)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Heys all thanks for the long and detailed input. Agree I should define what hands he'll call with. For this Villain since he's sticky post-flop, I had put him on a wide range of QJ, KJ, AJ, QQ. Or any 2 cards which just floated me. Flush draws are not too probable because we hold AhKh. But when he flat the Turn, KJ becomes less likely.

Actual hand he was stronger than just having a Jack. He held QTo. Probably thought I'm going to bet 3 streets thus slowplayed the Turn. I was surprised to see that but through your analysis, glad to learn that check-folding the River was a much better choice
 

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