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Value bet asking for opinions

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Value bet asking for opinions - Mon Jan 21, 2013, 01:43 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
10NL, 6max table. 5 players, I'm in the CO with Q5 suited. Table's pretty passive and most people seem to be playing a fit ot fold style. So far I've shown one hand (which I won) and folded to a bet once. The other hands were folded by the villains preflop, or after I bet the flop or turn.

The UTG folds, and I decide to try a steal. I raise to a little over 27 cts (my usual open). The button calls, both blinds are out.

Good thing: I'm playing a pretty tight aggressive game, and mixing it up a bit. I'm not gonna get married to this hand. It was a nice try, but I'm pretty much done here unless I hit gin.

Flop comes just that: Q,4,5 rainbow. So I make a c-bet of 45 cts into 66, and he calls.

The turn brings an offsuit 6, 3 to a straight on the board. Nothing to be scared of imho, I doubt he's playing junk like 2,3 or 7,8. So I bet $1 into $1.52, and he calls again. Say what?

So what can he have? I'm hoping for something like AQ or KQ. It makes sense, although I kinda would have expected a raise on the flop. Still, I doubt he has Q,6 to beat my 2 pair. Maybe pocket 4,5 or 6? Possible... But wouldn't you raise the turn then?

So the rivers crap: a deuce putting now a four card straight on the board. I ponder checking, and hoping he checks it back. I don't like it, because it gives a perfect bluffing opportunity, and if he bets the river after my check, the only value hand I can beat is A,Q going for some very thin value. The only other option is to bet. So the plan is simple: bet $2.50 into a now $3.42 pot, and either take it down when he folds or calls, or muck if he decides to fight back. So what can he have. Ok, he now needs a naked 3 to have a a straight, but what 3 would he be calling all those bets with? Far as I see, a 3 is not part of the equation here. So all that's left I think is the hands I mentioned: The A,Q/K,Q which I beat, and which might even call a river bet. And the pocket pair which has me crushed.

So I bet $2.50.

I'm perfectly okay with my reasoning pre, flop and turn, but I wonder on the river. I think I was right to bet again, the only thing that I'm thinking is whether the bet was too big or not. Is a A,Q or K,Q calling this? If he has a set he will raise, and I can find that out for a lot cheaper.

Would love to hear some thoughts on this one.


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Mon Jan 21, 2013, 04:29 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
hi Ov3r,

I doubt you have to worry about a set, can't imagine that not raising on the flop or turn. It's not likely either of you have a 3 in your hands, if it happens so be it but not worried about that either.

Against a passive player (you gave a table read but not a villain read???) I would bet the river if I thought he would feel inclined to pay off with all Qx hands (don't rule out QJ/QT/Q9s here either), as a passive player will surely check those down. While it seems hard for him to have big hands here, if he does raise a bet on the river I'd be ok folding it as passive players basically never bluff raise the river, and he will certainly not turn top pair into a bluff, so I'd expect our hand to be good not nearly often enough to call a raise.


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Mon Jan 21, 2013, 05:49 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Villain could have a hand like 77 that peeled one off on the flop, to see if you were one-and-done. He'd have picked up an OESD on the turn, so now he wants to see the river. He's probably not betting a one pair hand if you check the river, so betting again (quite small) might get looked up.
If the pot is $3.42 on the river, then betting about $2 (or even slightly less) is better than $2.50. You're more likely to get looked up by worse, while also minimising your losses if villain has a monster he's going to raise with. You don't want to bet too small, though, as villain might detect weakness and bluff-raise you off your hand.

If this villain was more aggro, the type to turn his missed draws and underpairs into bluffs, then check-calling gets more value.
 

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