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Queens - big mistake

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Queens - big mistake - Mon Jan 21, 2013, 03:57 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
10NL 6max again.

I'm in the SB with two black Queens. The button raises to 4x, I decide to 3-bet, and he calls. Flop comes 9,5,T all hearts. I lead for about 2/3 pot, and he raises almost 3x my bet.

So here I am with $2.41 invested into this pot facing a $2.50 raise. I think for a small while, discarding the possibility of the villain holding KK,AA. And so I shove. I don't think he has the flush, and I want to get rid of him should he have the one heart in his hands.

Looking back, I think it was a bad move. The shove was strictly to protect my hand against the flush draw as I saw no other threats to my hand. I do admit that the moment he raised my first instinct was to hit the fold button because he may have hit the flush. I disregarded that because I doubt it's profitable to play scared - you can't throw away an overpair everytime the flop's a single color.

Problem is - is it profitable to shove here? Yes, I'm only getting called by better hands, in this case, pocket tens for a flopped set. He obviously didn't put me on a flush either.

Opinions?


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Mon Jan 21, 2013, 06:22 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
Monotone flops are hard to hit. For that reason, you don't need to bet quite so much on the flop, especially if you have no draw, as villain either has a ton of equity, or very little. You want to take down this pot as cheaply as possible. If villain missed completely and has no draw, he's folding to a half pot bet. If he has the flush, a flush draw with the Kh or Ah, or a set, then he's either raising or calling. With two black queens on a monotone flush flop, you're only flipping against AK with one heart, and you're in bad shape against a set.
When villains raise flops, they are seldom doing it with air, so you have almost no fold equity if you 3-bet it. Since villain is calling your shove with all made flushes, sets and strong flush draws, you're getting your money in bad.
I'd recommend betting smaller on the flop (about 55% of pot) and folding to the raise.
While there's a lot to be said about "protecting your hand", going all in when you have less than 50% equity is not the most profitable. Getting out cheaply when the board is ugly will work out to be more profitable in the long run.
 
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Mon Jan 21, 2013, 08:31 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Ov3r,

I think Arty's given you some nice feedback here. Really start to get away from that "standard 2/3rds pot c-bet" mentality, it's a decent default size when you think a bet is warranted but aren't sure about making a bigger or smaller bet, but it's always important to think about the board texture, the opponents range, and if smaller or bigger bets make sense in light of all the information. I agree with the smaller c-bet for the reason Arty stated here.

When he raises us it's time to release, this is not a good situation for us and shoving will only fold any bluffs he may have (and there are probably few or none in this spot). Don't forget to discount sets in your ranging, and sometimes a preflop slowplayed AA or KK. If the opponent is a huge fish and would raise/stack off with all kinds of garbage not in the set, flush, or nut flush draw categories, then I'm not prepared to release my QQ just yet, but without reads it's just too marginal of a spot imo.


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