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10NL Zoom Set Raised (I)

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10NL Zoom Set Raised (I) - Wed Jan 23, 2013, 06:56 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Lately, my sets have been getting owned big time. Maybe I should give myself more reasons to fold rather than to call??

V5 is 25/21, AF: 0.6 over 89 hands. Flop cbet: 80%(5), Flop Cbet Fold to Raise: 0%(3)
Seems to be sticky OTF



By flat-calling our flop raise, I put him on at least a pair of Tens, maybe overpair, 2 pairs.

OTT 98 and 53 got there, plus he could be shoving with a slowplayed higher set. I don't see any straight draws which could call the Flop and jammed the Turn, unless it's a gutshot draw.

Against his range of { TT+, 66, AKs, ATs, 98s, 64s, 53s, ATo, 98o, 64o, 53o }, we're a 60% favourite.

Question is can this Loose-Passive be jamming the Turn with TPTK, overpair or 2 pairs? Many times I really can't tell if it's the nuts, a draw or he overvalued his hand!!
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 07:23 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
With an AF of 0.6, he's usually quite a calling station, so I doubt he's ever semi-bluffing here. The board is also a rainbow (no flush draw), so I think he's either going crazy with TPTK, two pairs (e.g. T7, 76), an overpair, a set, or made straight (probably with 98 that made a bad call on the flop).
If you change his range to AA-TT, 77, 66, 98, AT, T7, T6, 76, your equity is closer to 75%. I doubt he'd have raised hands like T7 and 76 pre-flop, so his range is more likely to be weighted towards sets and one pair hands.

I can't find a fold here, but clearly we're going to be losing our stack about a quarter of the time when we run into the top of his range. I'm guessing he had pocket 7s here and went a bit crazy when he hit his 2 outer.
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 11:42 AM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
When you made that range for him, the one we ave 60% against, why did you include Aks and why did you include 64o?
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 12:03 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey Awesome,

Remember, we can't and will never win every hand
Let say you put him on a 25% range, you're still 92% favorite
Since I don't use a HUD, I would call

The way I see it, it's a wet board for a straight and he probably has a top pair and he doesn't want you to catch a straight. If he's got a higher set, so be it. On the long run, I think you'll come out a winner.
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 02:56 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Let say you put him on a 25% range, you're still 92% favorite.
Hi Trap,

You can't range opponents like this. The guy is passive post flop, if you take a range of 25% of all starting hands and compare them to the board texture you'll find that the lion's share of this hand grouping is air or very weak on this board... he is never taking this line (cbet/call raise, check/shove turn) with most of this range.

His line looks very strong to me. I am probably not laying down the set either as I think it's possible he'll be doing this with QQ+ (tough to say what he'll view as strong enough facing our line to check/shove the turn with, but I think at least some combos of QQ+ are in there), but I wouldn't be surprised to get shown a set of T's at all.


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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 03:43 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Trap,

You can't range opponents like this. The guy is passive post flop, if you take a range of 25% of all starting hands and compare them to the board texture you'll find that the lion's share of this hand grouping is air or very weak on this board... he is never taking this line (cbet/call raise, check/shove turn) with most of this range.
You're right my bad, didn't see it that way
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 08:07 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
There was that strategy piece the player named 'The General' posted super early on in the beginning days of Zoom ... it comes up when you google "2nl zoom strategy", and he gave out a couple of tips that were super controversial about:

1. Folding KK pre-flop to 5bets (since only AA tends to do this at zoom), and
2. Not stacking off with bottom sets of 22-44, unless up against a known TAG, with an A-high board.

And I guess his ideas were super controversial because:

(1) AA vs KK, and set over set are just so rare (like around would you say, every 10,000 hands or so?, and
(2) because both holdings are just so strong, that there`s always that chance that others are raising with weaker?

The only thing though is that he only played 2nl and 5nl, so he does say that he`s not sure if his tips would apply to higher levels. Like are reraise-bluffs and check-raise-bluffs on super dry boards more prevalent at higher levels?

In an case, although I always like to sweat even the hands that only happen rarely, lately I`ve been thinking there might be more value to be had in trying to improve stuff like my note-taking? I`m hoping to have watched Langolier`s vid on note-taking by the end of the weekend!!

Was hoping there'd be more 6-max zoom players signing up for the Time Vault thingie so there'd be the chance to trade ideas on stuff like this, but it looks like there`s only a couple of us so far because some people are switching games and stuff - not a lot of people signed up yet who signed up for the FR-6max Challenge ... you thinking of doing the time-vault promo NW?

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:52 PM.. Reason: my keyboard stopped talking in French :o
 
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Wed Jan 23, 2013, 11:50 PM
(#8)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
My bad, I removed everything but AKs from my previous calculation. If we remove AKs and 64o, put it 77, { TT+, 77, 66, ATs, 98s, 64s, 53s, ATo, 98o, 53o }, we'll have 62% equity against him.

Villain turned over 66 in the end. That's why I was wondering if he'll be jamming with 2 pairs or overpairs OTT as it makes a big difference in our equity. Yucks spot but I guess sometimes it happens.

@TrustySam: Not too sure about TimeVault, requires constant updates and posts. Don't know if I can keep up with that. Can still discuss ideas though

@Sandtrap: Agree we can't win every single hand, but felt that many of my losing hands could be avoided. Perhaps I've been at the other end of the equation lately. Btw u rcv my PM few days back?
 
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Thu Jan 24, 2013, 12:03 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh!

We must have posted at the same time

Yeah, that's why I took so long to sign up. Especially if the prize is going to be a tourney that I'm not going to play again.

It's been pretty cool though getting feedback and ideas and stuff from people - there was that aspect too to the FR-6max challenge that sort of surprised me.

Guess that's why I was hoping maybe there'd be more 6max zoom players involved


About the hand ... ahhh ... guess my babbling was too subtle because I don't have a lot of confidence talking about 10nl when I've never played higher than 5nl. But like at 5nl, if anybody reraised on that dry a flop, it'd look like a set to me. So then, at 5nl for somebody to check-shove on the turn would necessarily mean they had a better set (since 44 is the worst set possible)? But yeah, sounds like 10nl+ is probably too different - like way more aggro such that you can't assume a reraiser on a dry board would necessarily have a set, therefore a check-reraiser on the turn wouldn't necessarily have a better set? So ... never mind


GL GL at the tables NW!! Thanks for posting so many cool spots!!
 
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Thu Jan 24, 2013, 02:19 PM
(#10)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
{ TT+, 66, AKs, ATs, 98s, 64s, 53s, ATo, 98o, 64o, 53o },
I think one of the biggest places you can improve is taking the time to figure out a good range to put your opponents on. There are many things that should lead us to exclude a great deal many of these hands.

I would exclude 64s and 64o and 53s and 53o just based on my opponnents decision to raise preflop. Then I would also exclude 98o for the same reason. I consider it less of a slam dunk, but its pretty slam dunk.

Then AKs. For what reason would AKs decide to play the turn this way? I see little reason.

We have to take each of our opponents decisions as an opportunity to eliminate hands from their range.

So they took a lot of decisions this hand.

1 raised preflop
2 c'bet flop
3 called flop raise
4 checked turn
5 check raised turn

Each of 1 through 5 can rule out certain hands. Its a big Venn diagram. Once we look inthe middle of that big diagram we{re going to see what their final range is and then we can go about figuring out what we should do about it!

The point is that if we go astray from teh start we{re going to be in trouble right away. So take your time making up the range. If you aren{t sure, come back to it, think on it. Its going to be much more like chess than pinball but that{s ok. The good thing is that if you get the range right oftentimes the plan against the range will come very easy! So there is a light at the end of the tunnel
 
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Thu Jan 24, 2013, 11:16 PM
(#11)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth, yea ranging is like a filtration process. AKs was a mistake. For the other hands, wanted to give him more credit as sometimes they may surprise me with weird hands. But it makes sense he wouldn't play them that way preflop and flop

So if we only assign him { TT+, 77-66, ATs, ATo }, we have 78% equity OTT. Guess I happened to be in the 22% slice of the pie this time.
 

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