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River dilemma

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River dilemma - Sat Jan 26, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
10NL 6max. Having some replayer issues....

Reads: the table's pretty tight except costelo17 who has all the signs of being a weakish fishy type.

***Removed link***


Hand Information
10NL 6max (6 handed).


Table Information
Seat: 1 ov3rsight ($11.46)
Seat: 2 magician24 ($14.9)
Seat: 3 totte73 ($4.62) Dealer
Seat: 4 darkisangel ($15.05) Small Blind
Seat: 5 costelo17 ($6.47) Big Blind
Seat: 6 raisememaybe ($10.32)
Dealt to ov3rsight
  

Preflop (Pot:0.15)
raisememaybe    FOLD
ov3rsight    RAISE $0.28
magician24    FOLD
totte73    FOLD
darkisangel    FOLD
costelo17    CALL $0.18

Flop(Pot: $0.61)
   

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $0.32
costelo17    CALL $0.32

Turn(Pot: $1.25)
    

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $0.71
costelo17    CALL $0.71

River(Pot: $2.67)
     

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $1.76
costelo17    RAISE $3.52


Preflop: despite my hand not being stellar I decide to raise it up. I'm expecting the opponents to fold escept maybe costelo. The suited connector has potential. The intent is (should he call) to c-bet pretty much any board. Watching him play has shown he's likely to fold if he misses, so if he continues I can be pretty sure I'm done and not throw away more money. I've been opening to 28 cts all day here, so not changing that.

Flop: well, that went better than expected... No reason to change the plan, and so there's the c-bet. I've been playing with smaller bets recently due to some feedback on other hands I posted that said a 2/3 flop c-bet was a bit biggish. So just over half has been my standard on this table.

Turn: great card. By now I'm pretty sure he's got an ace or a flush draw, with my money being the ace. So I bet again.

River: Excellent card unless he has an A,10 which is possible given the action. Still - he's capable of calling me down with any Ace. So I bet for value, and I make it a bit bigger than the other two bets, expecting him to call me down with the Ace. Checking isn't an option imho.

Instead he min-raises. Judging from what's left in his stack, I label it a weak play.

So the question is:
a] What do you folks put this guy on, and what to think of my read of an Ace?
b] How would you respond?
1] fold
2] call
3] shove

My thoughts:
Folding is not gonna happen. If he happens to have 2 pair with the Ace then so be it, but I think more often he has a lone Ace or medium pocket pair.
The problem is calling of raising. If he has the 2 pair he will call 100%. If he has the Ace I'm pretty sure he's calling too. If he doesn't have the Ace he might fold.

Is it a +EV play her to shov for the remaining $1.40 in his stack?


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Last edited by Ov3rsight; Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:31 AM.. Reason: Link had advert for competing site
 
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Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:06 AM
(#2)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Firstly I think it's a fold preflop, in the CO I think this would be an open given the table dynamic but this is just too bad a hand to play with two left behind. It would be useful to know there stats as if they are super nitty then my view might change but imo fold preflop.

Once you flop two pair build the pot, the small cbet of around half pot works well on a dry board as players calling ranges are narrower however with a spade and straight draw out there change him at least 2/3 pot with your two pair.

Similarly on the turn your bet is way too small, the guy rates to have a hand that is going to call all Ax combos are calling a bigger bet as are most spade draws so I'd bet around $1.

The river you still rate to have the best hand when he checks so a value bet of around $2 seems good to me. When he raises I think I'd find the fold BTN. You've stated he's fishy and he played the previous streets passively so this raise sends of alarm bells, I think he has a lot of aces up combos in his range, as well as a set every now and then, occasionly he'll have J9 for a straight but I think it is rare he has any hand you beat.

I suppose you could make an argument for calling as the odds are great and he might play AK this way if he's feeling tricky. But even with the great odds I think I would fold as it's extremely rare you are ahead.

Oliver


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Last edited by Croyd93; Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:09 AM..
 
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Sat Jan 26, 2013, 11:30 AM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
No HUD, so no stats.

Normally I agree, it's a fold. But since I hadn't played a hand in almost 2 orbits, and considering the tightness I saw in my opponents, I thought I'd try a steal, feeling confident I can play profitably against the fish postflop.
Maybe that's just a bad thought though.

My decision to play here was based strictly on my reads on the table and my table image (if one can speak of such). There's no way I would consider putting a whole lot in with this hand. And I actually had thought ahead before I bet there. I just hadn't considered the board running out this favorable.




So now we're back to betsizing. The reason I'm doing about half-pot bets here is because the last few hands I posted where I did 2/3 pot sized bets the feedback said I was betting too big. Or maybe that's just a bit of board and hand strength type sizing I'm not taking into consideration.

I tend to disagree abou the river fold though, I think you're putting him on too tight of a range. I really felt he could be doing this with any unpaired ace - he had shown down one pair hands before...


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Last edited by Ov3rsight; Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:46 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 27, 2013, 02:39 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
So the question is:

a] What do you folks put this guy on, and what to think of my read of an Ace?


Meh on your read of an A.

A weak fish who C/R's the river when a oesd gets there is very rarely doing anything except betting a pretty strong made hand. I am thinking 97 is quite likely for a weak fish CS type, Ax that made 2 pr is pretty likely too, and a poorly bet set is also a chance.



b] How would you respond?
1] fold
2] call
3] shove


You need to be right about 28% of the time to call. As much as I'd hate it, on the info you give I cannot think you are good here that often. You say Oliver has him on too narrow a range, well let's break it down...

bluff...nah. It would take a pretty sophisticated read on you to cause the villain to expect a 3 bullet fold by you when you are getting 2.5 to 1 on a call.

Weak value you can beat...nuh uh, not a weak fish C/R. Ax 1 pr calls you, not C/R's. AK/AQ would be a real wierd play if he holds those, and signs of wierd plays like that maybe should have been noticed (assuming you arent on minimal hands). Lesser hands are effectively bluffs who cannot truly expect to be ahead when you bet 3 streets (at least without another sophisticated read of you saying you'll 3 barrel bluff). So value weaker than bottom 2 is unlikely imho.

Poor player executing a bad bluff? Maybe, but then he is probably executing other aggression mistakes and maybe isn't best characterized as a weak fishy type. The word "weak" implies to me a passive calling station mentality completely at odds with the sort of aggression required to river push most all your stack in (while laying good odds for a call) on a hand that cannot beat bottom 2, even as a mistake. And a reasoned try at bluff requires too high a skill level to characterize him as "fishy".

I gotta agree with Oliver that this is probably a fold.

Is it a +EV play her to shov for the remaining $1.40 in his stack?

Please note: despite my feeling you are NOT getting the right price to call based on the info you;ve provided, your gut may have seen things you didn't write down for us. Therefore...

This is a shove or fold spot.

If you are NOT folding based on your read, you are better off shoving than calling. If you do shove you are playing for $1.76 + $1.40 ($3.16) in a pot of $9.35, and only need to be "right" about 25% of the time. So if you think you have the right price to call, you have a slightly better price to shove.

(2.95 to 1 implied odds to shove if the villain calls, which he is all but required to do if he C/R'ed that much of his stack. This is opposed to the 2.57 to 1 pot odds on a call of the C/R).

On the info you give I'd hesitate to say a shove is +eV, but it is probably better than a call that leaves $1.40 in the villain's stack you'd might otherwise get.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
 
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Sun Jan 27, 2013, 02:48 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

If the villain is a weak fish, this is a bet/fold spot imo on the river. I agree with Oliver that we are virtually never good here.

It seems like you had the right idea for attacking the weak fish all along, including your reason for betting the river:

Quote:
he's capable of calling me down with any Ace. So I bet for value, and I make it a bit bigger than the other two bets, expecting him to call me down with the Ace.
I think you got a little lost here though:

Quote:
Instead he min-raises. Judging from what's left in his stack, I label it a weak play.
I'm not sure what's left in his stack has anything to do with it, a min-check/raise from a weak fish on the river is indicative of a very big hand. I actually wouldn't be surprised if he flipped up 97 here. But I mean what else could it be but a big hand? You already determined (correctly I believe based on the read) that he was calling you down with any ace, so that represents medium strength hands, and check-raise bluffing the river is a play that many players don't even have in their arsenal, especially weak fish. And if it's not a bluff nor a medium strength hand, that leaves 2 pair+, all of which beats us

Quote:
I really felt he could be doing this with any unpaired ace
But this is contradictory to your read up to this point... how did we get from the first quote to here?

Quote:
- he had shown down one pair hands before...
No doubt, he's a weak fish after all... but that he's min-check/raised the river with? If we've seen him be capable of this play with medium strength 1 pair hands, then we can justify calling, but based on everything you said up until getting raised leads me to believe this isn't the case.


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Sun Jan 27, 2013, 04:28 AM
(#6)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
But this is contradictory to your read up to this point... how did we get from the first quote to here?
Might have been badly worden from me - when I said unpaired ace I meant just the pair of aces without a second pair.

Still, plenty of food for thought. You boh say theres little chance my 2 pair is good, yet I was almost certain it was. I really felt he had just the pair of aces (which in the end he did have, he showed A,7 off). considering the way I'd seen him play, I think he would have done something earlier with 2 pair or so, so the only real hand I was afraid of is A,10.

Reading back, I see I omitted some things I thought I had put in there. Guess I edited once too often. His actions before seemed to indicate he was very loose preflop with all his limp/calling. That's the main reason I led out with a 6,8 - I was pretty sure he'd fold to a flop bet if he missed the flop.


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Wed Jan 30, 2013, 06:38 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ov3rsight,

I think the point everyone is driving at is mainly semantics. "Weak fish" implies a certain level of passivity. A river C/R on 1 pair is a pretty aggro move. Therefore seeing that C/R is scary for bottom 2 if the opp is a "weak fish" type.

If the fish is a big enough fish to think top pair/7 kicker is good, he'd still have to be aggro enough to try a C/R. That implies he is pretty aggro (as well as a fish for over valuing weak hands), and is more an aggro fish, not a weak one.

See?

A note I'd like to make, since you mentioned bet sizing. You said this:

So now we're back to betsizing. The reason I'm doing about half-pot bets here is because the last few hands I posted where I did 2/3 pot sized bets the feedback said I was betting too big. Or maybe that's just a bit of board and hand strength type sizing I'm not taking into consideration.

Sitting in a micro stakes game with the intention of making all your bets exactly the same size can be somewhat counter productive. That sort of thinking is more useful when it is necessary to disguise your betting patterns by betting the same % of pot with strong, weak, and middle strength hands. It usually only becomes necessary to do that versus highly aware opponents, and those types are often lacking at the micro stakes.

Instead, I try to pick up on the individual mistakes each opponent I face is likely to make:

- versus the guy who calls to often I V-bet larger
- versus the guy who folds too often I V-bet smaller

Against the guy you were playing here, assuming you feel strongly that you have the best hand, it strikes me that betting smaller was simply going to cost you money you might otherwise have gotten into the pot. If the guy will call down lite, why not make him pay MORE to do that when you are V-Betting, right?

Please note though, If you happen to be facing a tighter and more disciplined opp you do not want to V-bet TOO SMALL simply to keep an opp around. If you do that you might inadvertantly lay him correct odds (either pot odds or implied odds) to draw against you. If you do that then you are giving him a +eV call.

the trick to remember when you are V-betting is that you want to bet to DENY ODDS , but INVITE a CALL.

This is why 1/3rd to 1/2 pot (not 2/3rds+) tends to be a "standard" bet size versus decent players in HU pots. Those sizing choices tend to effectively deny pot odds for 8 and 9 out draws (8 or 9 out draws are about the bottom end of "reasonable" draw ranges versus an opp unlikely to stack off in a deep money situation). Keeping the overall pot smaller also tends to prevent the bettor from getting pot committed, thus lowers the implied odds a caller might expect to get if he does hit.

At the micro stakes however, it is really not all that often you will find someone completely aware of all these considerations. At best you'll likely run into someone who has an inkling of some of them, and usually those are the types you will be V-betting around 1/2 pot into.

For C.S. types like the opp here 9especially those with aggro tendencies), a bet larger than 1/2 pot is still going to be pretty inviting if he has top pair, or even just a straight or flush draw. If you think you hold the best hand, and a larger than half pot bet is likely to be "inviting", then you probably benefit from making the larger bet far more often than not.
 
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Thu Jan 31, 2013, 10:28 AM
(#8)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
10NL 6max. Having some replayer issues....
beside the fact the replayer is a nice gimmick, a classic hand history TEXT is way better for a serious discussion...

Quote:
Reads: the table's pretty tight except costelo17 who has all the signs of being a weakish fishy type.
so you sit at a table with four tight regs and one fish! - why? - it´s NL10 and there´s a ton of profit tables. i suggest to invest more time in tableselection or to use at least the easy seat function.

Quote:

***Removed link***


Hand Information
10NL 6max (6 handed).


Table Information
Seat: 1 ov3rsight ($11.46)
Seat: 2 magician24 ($14.9)
Seat: 3 totte73 ($4.62) Dealer
Seat: 4 darkisangel ($15.05) Small Blind
Seat: 5 costelo17 ($6.47) Big Blind
Seat: 6 raisememaybe ($10.32)
Dealt to ov3rsight
  

Preflop (Pot:0.15)
raisememaybe    FOLD
ov3rsight    RAISE $0.28
magician24    FOLD
totte73    FOLD
darkisangel    FOLD
costelo17    CALL $0.18
preflop it´s a fold to me. the reasons are easy. as it is good for deception not to play only the strongest hands oop and also you want to play as much hands with the fish as possible your selected hand is definately no good.

the reasons are easy. there is a midstacker at the button and if those guys come to the impression you make light moves pre you become an obvious 3bet victim to them.

there are 2 other big stackers behind you may have the same plan as you have but doing this with the advantage of position.

third and last reason is the huge gap to your top range. if you assume you get at least one light call you´re dominated most of the time and you need a highly coordinated board to hit. well, those boards are rarely paid big on those stakes and if you get in the money easily you´re mostlikely beat.

i would suggest if you go for that hunt to use hands with a higher blocking potential, like QJs,QTs,JTs,A2s-A5s ... they have a way better playability and they are blocking a wider range of hands which likely for the regs behind you.

Quote:
Flop(Pot: $0.61)
   

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $0.32
costelo17    CALL $0.32
can´t say anything about flop without any postflop tendencies of villain. line looks fine so far. bet size to small for obv. reason. 3/4 pot at least. c50 should be fine in my opinion as the board is drawy and if you get called you want villain to make a mistake, don´t you?

Quote:
Turn(Pot: $1.25)
    

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $0.71
costelo17    CALL $0.71
well, the turn is kind of interesting for several reasons. first of all a player firing a 2nd barrel is way less likely to bluff as well as a player calling a reasonable 2nd barrel is way less likely to flat with air.

given by the fact you characterized villain as a fish and you tried to play him that way, i suggest to make this a bigger bet. $1 would be fine in my eyes. if he is a loose passive calling station and will call anyway, there´s no reason not to let him pay and there´s still a flushdraw and a straightdraw on the board. fishes love to play suited aces, well they love to play any2suited and they even more love suited connectors.

the more money you get in at that point as easier are your later decisions.

Quote:
River(Pot: $2.67)
     

costelo17    CHECK
ov3rsight    BET $1.76
costelo17    RAISE $3.52
well, not the best river card for you but by far not the worst. i would have been more scared about a spade.

the interesting thing is the river raise. given by the pot odds you have to win this at leats >22% of the time to be profit (don´t forget about the rake, otherwise it would be 18% only).

Normaly a river raise indicates nothing but stregth when it comes by a weak passive fish. So the question is, is it likely to happen that villain is bluffing this spot almost evry 4th time he´s in a similar spot? - and by bluff i mean any value raise with an ace too (fishes tend to overrate their hands).

to be honest, it´s unlikely. the question isn´t even if he did bluf in this spot or not, it´s still possible he´s bluffing in this spot but not bluffing enough to justify your call. the only question to answer is, is he bluffing that much in those spots!

if you answer it with yes, you have a call. if you answer it with no, you have a fold. to answer the question you need a definite read. you don´t have a definite read? - you fold and make a note.

btw. a better betsizing by you on earlier streets would have helped not to get into that spot.

Quote:
Preflop: despite my hand not being stellar I decide to raise it up. I'm expecting the opponents to fold escept maybe costelo. The suited connector has potential. The intent is (should he call) to c-bet pretty much any board. Watching him play has shown he's likely to fold if he misses, so if he continues I can be pretty sure I'm done and not throw away more money. I've been opening to 28 cts all day here, so not changing that.

Flop: well, that went better than expected... No reason to change the plan, and so there's the c-bet. I've been playing with smaller bets recently due to some feedback on other hands I posted that said a 2/3 flop c-bet was a bit biggish. So just over half has been my standard on this table.

Turn: great card. By now I'm pretty sure he's got an ace or a flush draw, with my money being the ace. So I bet again.

River: Excellent card unless he has an A,10 which is possible given the action. Still - he's capable of calling me down with any Ace. So I bet for value, and I make it a bit bigger than the other two bets, expecting him to call me down with the Ace. Checking isn't an option imho.
only to add you forgot about a hand like 97s. there´s a straight draw on the board too. could be also an Ax like A3 or A8 villain tried to hide by C/C. his range is much wider than AT for two pair or better.

Quote:
Instead he min-raises. Judging from what's left in his stack, I label it a weak play.
judging from what you told us so far about villain it´s a very aggressive and unexpected move for him. you made your judgement based on betsizing but since when have fishes a plan of batsizing?

Quote:
So the question is:
a] What do you folks put this guy on, and what to think of my read of an Ace?
b] How would you respond?
1] fold
2] call
3] shove
those questions are based on a nonsense judgement so they don´t make sense either.

the question is call or fold. you have the pot odds and you have to think through it if villain is likely to bluff often enough to make a call profit. i don´t see a push here as i doubt you have fold equity and that way you get worse pot odds or in other words a push needs villain to bluff more often in this spot.

Quote:
My thoughts:
Folding is not gonna happen. If he happens to have 2 pair with the Ace then so be it, but I think more often he has a lone Ace or medium pocket pair.

The problem is calling of raising. If he has the 2 pair he will call 100%. If he has the Ace I'm pretty sure he's calling too. If he doesn't have the Ace he might fold.
try to think it his way. give him a range of hands he would likely hold when calling you down. give him a range you expect him to fold, give him a range you expect him to raise for value and give him a bluff range.

to be honest, you told us villain is a fish and from what i´ve seen in the hand i think you are right, so i would tend to the point that villain has no bluff range in this spot. it´s totally unlikely for a weak passive fish to agressively river bluff raise busted draws.

So I expect him either to value raise you with an A only or you´re beat by a better two pair, set or straight.

Quote:
Is it a +EV play her to shov for the remaining $1.40 in his stack?
I wouldn´t shove here without a definite read, but why don´t you do the math yourself? - you have to be ahead >28% of the time to be profit in case you shove. do you think this works out?

well, we give villain a range now based on the things we found out and the assumptions made by you. we assume villain to raise you with hands like Ax, set or straight.

Board: As 8s 6c 3h Tc
Villain: AA, TT, 88, 66, 33, A2s+, 97s, A2o+, 97o
Hero: 8d6d

Villain: 37,255%
Hero: 62,745%

Numbers say yes. The numbers are based on a range based on your analysis. My experience says I would discount all the hands with a pair of aces only as long as i´ve no definite read villain is capable of bluffing, semi bluffing or making a bad value raise. this way the numbers would say no.

so i assume you called and that way you found out. if he is really capable of making a value raise on river with a pair of aces only, you can give him a range based on the kicker and you have your answer.

Good luck at the felts!

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Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:38 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 02, 2013, 04:18 AM
(#9)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Tx for the big reponses

As for table choice, I just pick a table and see how it goes. This one was going alright for me.

As for the open - you make some points about the people left to act behind me, but those are completely against my reads. These guys were pretty much playing decent hands. They're not monkeying around 3betting light and stuff. usually when someone opens the pot, they're out. Hence my premise that a raise would most likely only be called by costelo. If any of the others come along, the whole plan changes.

On the flop, the opponents tended to fold if they missed, and so I planned on the c-bet and take it down. I'd done it a few times before, always worked fine against these folks.

I agree with you on the villain's river range. It was either an ace alone or with a 2nd pair, and I felt there were a lot more lone aces than 2 pair aces.

Yes, I did call, and he showed A,7


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Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


 

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