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10NL - turn line with 88

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10NL - turn line with 88 - Thu Jan 31, 2013, 07:26 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi,

Is it too thin to be betting here?
Villain 19/16/6 (131 hands) Cbet 90%

I floated flop assuming villain will cbet his entire range (I could raise his cbet too, but I'm never raising with my A nor my sets on that flop so it could be read as a bluff), when he checks the turn, I think his hand consists of alot of showdown value hands or a hand that turned a pair like KJ/QJ that is why I decided to bet to change my hand into a thin bluff against his Jx hands or weak Ax hands and to pick up the dead money.

 
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Fri Feb 01, 2013, 10:43 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I'm not really tracking with the turn assumptions... does he normally cbet turn for a high % (frequent double barreler?) Is that why you assume he has showdown value? Because if you are going to float players you want to do it against players who routinely fire 1 shell with everything and 2 shells with only the goods... players who routinely fire 2 shells aren't great float targets (you have to be prepared to float twice, and then only if they routinely back off on the river and give up and don't 3-barrel frequently). So make sure you're considering the right things when floating.

None the less, I would certainly bet this turn. We are repping an ace or better, and most players would bet the ace now. By betting we are giving slightly better hands a chance to fold like TT, JT, etc and denying a free card to KQ, KT, QT which have a lot of river cards to beat us on. If we get check-raised, easy fold. Can't really say if I would fire the river or not if called, since it would depend on both the river card AND villain reads that aren't given, since only preflop stats and flop cbet are given.


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