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10NL - Overpair on low wet board

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10NL - Overpair on low wet board - Thu Jan 31, 2013, 07:43 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
The board is somewhat wet and low, we have QQ and facing aggression against an UTG opener. Although the sample size is small he seems to be a TAG/LAG 29/27/2 (45 hands)



What's the best line to take OOP?
 
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Fri Feb 01, 2013, 05:29 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
29/27 is pretty loose, but I wonder if this guy is positionally aware. Also, how does he react to 3-bets? There's certainly an argument to be made for 3-betting to regain the initiative, or take the pot down pre-flop, against a player with a wide range.
As played, you flopped an overpair and the flop call looks standard to me. He doesn't slow down on the turn though and fires another decent bet.
Even if he only opens 20% of hands in early position, then A8s and K8s are in his range, along with all pairs. The only hands I can see him barrelling with that you beat are JJ-99 and flush draws. Although you're not a huge dog against his range (you have about 45% equity), there are quite a lot of bad river cards that can come. Basically, if he bets the river on any card that isn't a Q or lower than 7, you're toast. Even if the river is an offsuit deuce, I don't feel great about calling a bet, as I'm still losing to AA-KK, 88-77, 44 and 8x. Rather than call the turn and then face an even harder river decision, I'd probably fold on the turn, and give him credit for a bigger overpair, trips or a boat.
For me, there's nothing more tilting that turning myself into a calling station with an overpair for a 3-street ride to valuetown and finding out I was practically drawing dead the whole journey.
Playing out of position against guys with a wide range can be hellish, which is why you're often better off 3-betting pre, so you can at least narrow the villain's range and be better sure of where you stand post-flop.
 
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Fri Feb 01, 2013, 11:00 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

This board seems benign enough that I don't think I'm folding to the turn barrel, although again post flop reads would help make a decision one way or the other clearer. He can have some 8's in his range but I'm not real worried about that, much more likely that he's got pocket pairs, a few flush draw combos, and some AK high air that he's barreling both to put pressure on you (your range consists of a lot of modest 1 pairs and draws when you call the flop, so the barrel with AK puts pressure on the smaller pairs and gets value from all draws which AK high is beating).

If he has AA or KK so be it. Worse made hands would include 99-JJ, as well as 55 and 66 would often barrel twice.

Like Arty I don't mind 3-betting pre (planning to play for stacks if he 4b's), it makes the hand much easier to play being OOP and punishes him for opening so wide. And I would actually consider check-raising the flop... and as crazy as it may sound check-raising all in is a viable option. It will likely look a lot like a draw and we will often get called of by A8, 99-JJ, and sometimes 55-66 thinking they're flipping vs. our draw. This way we give all the worse made hands a chance to make a big mistake before cards come off that scare them (if he holds a hand like TT, there's very few "safe" cards in the deck for him). Check-calling down is a bit of a reverse implied odds situation for us, in that with this line if he's beating us he's often going to get 3 streets, but if we're beating him we are not as likely to get 3 full streets in return as the board will run out scary for his holding too often. It also has the advantage of denying AK a chance to realize it's equity to hit the 6 outter on us, as he'll have to fold to the c/r. With a passive line AK sees the turn, and sometimes will check back the turn and see the river for free as well, realizing it's hand equity.


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