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10NL Zoom Set Laydown?

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10NL Zoom Set Laydown? - Thu Jan 31, 2013, 11:17 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 11/8, AF:1.7 over 233 hands. Flop cbet: 44%(9)



With his UTG range, I exclude 97, KJ, J9. Also with his check/call line OTF, OTT, I exclude TP Ax hands.

His range can have PPs like TT-QQ. With his low AF, is this an obvious sign that QQ got there? Easy fold?
 
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Fri Feb 01, 2013, 05:03 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
First things first, this guy is a total nit for 6max. If he's positionally aware (which might not be the case, some ubernits just play the top 10% of hands, whatever the position), then his range is very narrow, so he's ideal to go set-mining against.
Unfortunately, he doesn't c-bet, allowing you to raise and stack off against AQ+. His check-call looks like QQ-TT, or possibly a slowplayed top set.
The thing about (some) nits, is that they play so few hands that when they finally get queens or kings, they really hate folding them, even when it's obvious they are beat. This big stacked villain may indeed have got married to queens. The low AF would indicate his river lead is for pure fat value. He's got aces, tens, or queens almost always. Even in the unlikely even that he opened UTG with KJ, he made the nuts on the river.

I liked your bet sizing on earlier streets, but I think you have to fold to the river donk. I can't see how this player could possibly be bluffing. Looks like you played fine and experienced a brutal suckout.
 
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Fri Feb 01, 2013, 07:52 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Agsinst such a tight player you can easily narrow down his overall handrange by the river.

Since he x/c flop and turn his range until then will most likely contain AA/KK/QQ/TT and maybe some AQ/AK.

To me his overbet now rules out any Ax, and to some extent also many AQ combos since I think that most people will be more likely to bet the Ax part of their range than decide to x/c them down.

If you take all AQ combos into his range then you can still call an overbet but I'd weigh it more towards slowplayed AA/QQ/TT since that fits his line much better - that would tip it towards folding for me.


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