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Value bet on river (or Not) on very scary board...

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Value bet on river (or Not) on very scary board... - Thu Feb 07, 2013, 07:07 PM
(#1)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
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Background:

My last action before this hand; I'd raised with AKs (UTG+1) & showed the hand after all folded. Then picked up TT in mp and raised 2.3bb with 13bb after it folded to me with one caller (SB). Blinds 200/400 Ante 50.

My thoughts...

Pre Flop

Villain was new to my table so I had no information on him, except his first hand was a Bet, Call all in with QQ vs JJ.

Post Flop

Flop was pretty scary for my TT (two overs, flush etc), but thought I have a stab at it & Cbet just under half pot (45%). Villain called.

It got worse on the turn & it was checked down. River was the Th, so whilst I hit trips... flush & broadway draws got there.

Question: When Villain checked to me a second time, I debated a value bet on the river, but chose the safe play on the premise I was only going to get called or 3bet all in by better!!!

Any comments / feedback appreciated?

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 07:26 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 08, 2013, 07:52 PM
(#2)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Well as played I don't think you can bet the river, especially as it would have to really be your whole stack and as you say you're not usually getting called by worse. You do have a value hand but on such a wet board it's best to check it back and hopefully realise your equity.

Personally on such short stacks I think really this hand is an all in pre flop. You're opening for a large percentage of your stack and really have to get it in if you're raised. Better I think to just shove and put the pressure on your opponents and can still have good equity against lot of opponents calling ranges. I made a similar play with pocket tens myself and came to the same conclusion.



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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 06:41 AM
(#3)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
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Hi Fadyen,

I raised, rather than open shoved as I thought it would look stronger with only 10bb behind, but in reality would still have called an all in 3bet, so in hindsight I should have got all in pre-flop in this position with stack sizes.

Thanks for your comments / feedback.

Prodigy237
 
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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 05:09 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Check on the river is the best play here IMO.

As Fayden noted we mostly are only going to be called by better,and we're playing for the rest of our stack if we bet the river.

On the flip side by checking we A: minimize our losses in the hand if we're beat and B: we have a fair amount of showdown value,so the expectation that we could have this hand won is high enough that taking the showdown is fine.

Turn check by you is best play to make as the hand progressed as well,I believe. Villain calling your flop bet indicates that they've very likely hit on either the K or the J,and even if it's not a particularly strong K or J (which isn't probable,seeing as they did call pre-flop...)it's still ahead of us.

The glaring mistake in this hand is by the villain,when they checked the turn. This is me I'm getting ALL of my chips in right then and there,as with TWO flush draws on the board I want to shut the action down right now. If I'm up against an already made straight...well,so be it. Letting you peel the river card was a huge mistake by them,IMO.

As to shoving pre-flop with the 10's...meh...it's about right on the line for me personally. I'd lean to a shove or standard raise play here depending on effective stack sizes left to act and player types. I think either path is acceptable here,situation dependent.

Also not to be left out of any decision on shoving or standard raising here would be proximity to the bubble (if this is a 45 man with a full 9 person table I'm guessing it's just gone to 2 tables left,so nearing the hard bubble,not there yet...)and our respective position in the field,as bubble and near bubble time is when that DOES become a consideration,as cashing is first goal in an SNG.
 
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Sun Feb 10, 2013, 11:53 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hey Prodigy,

With a 12.5 bb stack and TT in mp I would jam preflop here every time. There's 1050 in the pot and if we pick it up without a fight that increases our stack by 20%, it's huge. When we get called our hand plays fine against most normal calling ranges which will be probably 77+ and AQ+ conservatively (we're actually a slight equity favorite over that calling range, and any wider is only better for us, but even if we get called a bit tighter and are a slight equity dog when called, it's still a very +EV shove due to the fold equity we have).

Don't get fancy and raise less with TT. I get the rational that you were willing to call a 3b (of course), but it presents too many issues like the one we face here when we get called, and we miss the easy 20% increase opportunity.


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