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$0.02-$0.04 FR LHE, KK, folded the winner

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$0.02-$0.04 FR LHE, KK, folded the winner - Fri Feb 08, 2013, 05:05 AM
(#1)
KhanTJ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2


Villain8 is a very loose player (80/20) so I would have been happy to isolate him with my 3bet. Villain5 is TAG (21/5)so I figured with his 4bet he has a very good hand (like AA,QQ or AK). I had no relevant info on the other 2 players but with them calling the 4bet I suspected some strenght on their side too.
On the flop the AA overpair scared me with the 4 opponents still in play and I just called the bet. On turn I thought that at least one of the three remaining opponents should have an A and I folded my Kings to the first bet. This obviously was a mistake I realize that now - the pot was already at about 14 Big Bets.

What was the biggest mistake in my thought process? (besides disregarding the pot size)
Would have been better to raise on flop? If yes, why?

Thank you very much in advance.
 
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Fri Feb 08, 2013, 12:37 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Khan,

It's interesting. I think while there is a small chance we still have the best hand, it's not likely in a 5 way pot like this. However I think calling the flop is fine... it's interesting, if we assume we need to spike a king to win, we are 22.5-1 against hitting one on the turn... but as this was a 5 way capped preflop pot, we are facing immediate odds of exactly 22.5-1 to call the flop bet. It's not quite that simple obv, we have implied odds if we hit a K, but we can hit a K and still lose, and we can get raised on the flop round and have to put more than .02c in... plus that small % of the time we're still good factors in. But on balance I think calling is fine.

I would fold the turn just as you did however. With 3 opponents remaining on a totally dry flop it seems increasingly likely at least 1 ace is out there (or a slow playing pocket 2's). We're 22-1 to river a king, but our immediate odds have shrunk to 13.75-1. And there is an increased threat of a raise behind us with the increased likelihood of an ace present (we have poor relative position, acting immediately after the bettor). And there's still no guarantee of winning with a king, as we still lose to A2, A8, AK, and AA all of which could show up in 2c-4c limit. So I don't think your turn fold was a mistake, I think it was correct.


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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 01:33 AM
(#3)
KhanTJ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2
Thank you for the quick answer and the thorough analysis. Even though my decision turned out to be correct (which is a good thing, because naturally I've got a little frustrated after playing this hand), I admit that I didn't consider all the aspects presented by you, so I still learned a lot.
 
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Tue Feb 12, 2013, 08:28 AM
(#4)
a1379's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 417
after flop i would have raised the flop.....i want to know where i stand whats their holding by contributing 2 cent more.....most of the time if both of guys are not manic(refer read here) they flat call you raise......adding 2 cent will change hole dynamic of turn and river bet.......turn i will check and both of them do same(if they are not manic fish)....i wouldnot folding there unless there is a raise reraise either on turn or flop........

i m a 6 max player not full ring..

i cant express my thought better

Last edited by a1379; Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:31 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 07:02 AM
(#5)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
is raising on the flop ok?

Last edited by pokerstar671; Tue Feb 26, 2013 at 07:08 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 11:55 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
I don't like raising the flop unless there's a reasonable chance no one has an ace. Given the situation here I think the times no one actually has an ace will be fairly rare. By raising we are taking a thin but correct call and charging ourself an incorrect price to peel a king. Raising to see where we stand, well I'm not a fan of that concept and I think I know where we stand already, it's not great. Just because on this individual trial we would have gotten a good result, doesn't mean staying to the river or raising post flop is good... I think most of the time we do these things in a similar situation we'll find ourselves beat and in the long term be bleeding $.


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