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PSO League, 65o in BB, free flop middle pair, checked to the river - call this bet?

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PSO League, 65o in BB, free flop middle pair, checked to the river - call this bet? - Fri Feb 08, 2013, 02:06 PM
(#1)
CanuckMonkey's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 185


All three villains are very loose, VPIP 50+. Villain_4 has a post-flop aggression of 2.8, so this bet on the river with no prior action strikes me as a missed hand trying to pick up the pot. (If he had the case deuce I would have expected a bet from him on the turn.) However, it is almost half my stack to call, and there is one more villain still to act behind me.

I considered a push, be decided against it because (a) Villain_4 could have 77-TT and have been nervous about the jack but still have me beat, (b) it is too early in this league tourney for me to want to risk my whole stack, and (c) I am only likely to be called by a better hand (I might get a call from AK or KQ, but that's the best I could hope for.)

So my options, as I see them, are a flat-call or a fold. If I flat-call and Villain_3 goes for a check-raise then I will have to fold.

What would you do?

Also, since I'm gearing up for the Big Bang tomorrow, would you play this hand differently in a cash tourney or the Big Bang?


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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 01:44 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I bet the turn and/or the river. If a villain raises, you can safely fold, as they have you beat.

I bet the turn because no one showed any interest in the dry flop, and most rivers will be overcards. You can't give these players a free chance to spike a bigger pair. If they have a deuce or a decent pocket pair, they'll let you know by raising. By waiting until the river, you have no idea what these guys have. In short, protect your hand while also narrowing villains' ranges by leading out on an earlier street.

As played, I fold the river, partly because of the bet size, your stack size and league considerations, but partly because there are too many combos that beat you (77+, as you noted), and probably not all that many bluffs.
 
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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 01:56 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi CanuckMonkey!

With 56o in a league game, I'm more than happy to see a flop for free.

I flop middle pair and since I'm out of position, I'm going to check here and hopefully get to see the turn card for free.

I see a 2 on the turn for free (a card that should not have helped the opps). Here is where I'm going to make my play to try and take down the pot. All of the opps checking the flop says that they should not have hit the board. If this is the case, then the turn missed them too, which means that I could easily have the best hand. Due to this, I'm making a value bet here of 1/2 pot (225). I'd normally like to bet a bit more, but I do not want to pot commit myself here, especially in a league game. This bet gives me a chance to win the pot here, does not pot commit me and will give me info about the opps' hands.

The river is a 2 and now all of the mid pairs that would have folded to me on the turn have now outdrawn me with a larger full house. Since this is a league game and the pot was checked all the way, I'm not calling here. If I bet the turn and am called, then it's an easy fold. If I had a larger stack in a cash tournament, then I'd call, especially if the opp is known to bluff, but with a smaller stack, I'm mucking .

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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