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Top pair on flop facing cbet raise from compulsive flop raiser!

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Top pair on flop facing cbet raise from compulsive flop raiser! - Fri Feb 08, 2013, 11:02 PM
(#1)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Hey,

In this hand I would probably be folding to the check raise versus an unknown who I would see more as 88 or AK, AQ. But this guy is pretty aggressive. VPIP 16, PFR 10, Agg 2, but I think most importantly he has raised a cbet 7/32 flops I have history for.
He is less aggressive and less likely to raise a cbet on the turn. So I am thinking call the check raise and he may give up on the turn. On the other hand I am not going to be in love with any turn card and the 9 hits TJ which I have to imagine is in the range of someone so likely to raise my cbet. Although he is less aggressive on the turn I am still likely to face a bet.

Q: Better to call the flop raise or 3 bet flop against someone who is fond of raising c bets (and check raising similar stats)

Thanks!

ps I 3 bet pre as he folds to 3 bet 50% of the time, in case that was something to reconsider.


Last edited by Profess Awe; Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 11:04 PM..
 
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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 12:16 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi Tommy,

First let's address the 3b. Fold to 3B of 50% is really low, they way you said that as the reason you 3b sounds like you interpret that as high... but it's not. F3B between 60-75% would be more typical. 80%+ is high. So this guy doesn't fancy giving up his open raises. Why? Could be that he's opening a tight range, so has strong hands a lot when he's 3b, or could be that he's stubborn. The stats you gave don't include steal %'s so we don't I don't know which. He's normally 16/10, if his steal cut off is close to this then his range is fairly strong in general and I wouldn't 3b him. If his COStl is high, like 30+, then he's raising light quite often and maybe a bit stubborn about some of the resteals, so 3b for value is ok.

On this flop, if he frequently raises c-bets, why not check to him? There's no law that says you must bet. This flop is pretty dry, and you're in a way ahead/way behind spot. You're crushed by 88, QQ, AA, AK, AQ and way ahead of AT, KK, JJ, TT, KQ. If you c-bet for value the only hands you're probably getting called by are AT and maybe KQ peels once.

As the preflop 3-bettor you're "expected" to c-bet. When you don't, the villain (if he's thinking) will suspect your range is polarized to AA that is slowplaying the flop, or hands like KK/JJ that hate the board. An aggressive player is more likely to try and bluff you off the non-sets taking this line. Also he's much more likely to give you 2 streets of value with hands like AT or KQ. C-betting the flop you are getting 1 street from those in the hands of an average TAG, maybe 2. If you check the flop, you are always getting 2 streets, as he'll call the turn and river, or pick up the betting lead right on the flop and you can even get 3 streets from AT type hands. Plus you can get some value from hands that will never continue vs a cbet like 55, when they decide to take a shot at moving you off a JJ type hand.

Think about what the villain's range of hands is, and how many streets of value you can expect from this particular guy with those hands. Remember if the optimistic outlook is 2 streets from worse hands, they don't have to be the flop and turn. The can sometimes be the flop and river, or turn and river. Adjusting the line for max value against the reads you have here might make some sense. (if he were a loose station type, then just bet/bet/bet, etc).


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Sat Feb 09, 2013, 12:48 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
The analysis of post-flop stats has to be put aside for a moment here, because this a 3-bet pot. When the hand is 3-bet pre-flop, both your range and villain's range will be much tighter than in a single-raised pot. We're basically looking at big aces and pocket pairs.
That range smashes the AQx flop. If villain raises here, he usually has AK as a minimum, but can also have AQ, AA and QQ, hands which are crushing you. So, in this case, you have to give his flop check-raise a lot more credit than you would in a single-raised pot.
After raising the flop, he's nearly ALWAYS following up with a turn bet. That 9 is a virtually a blank, unless you really think this TAG would call a 3-bet with JT and then check-raise a flop with a gutshot, when he should know that flop smashes your range, and that he doesn't have much fold equity.
As Lang said, this flop puts you in a "way ahead/way behind" situation. You can either bet-fold the flop, or try and keep the pot relatively small by check-calling, hoping villain will bluff on a couple of streets.

As an aside, AJ rarely wins a big pot unless it makes the nut straight. In general, AJ is a hand that wins small pots and loses big ones. Because of the threat of losing a big one here, I'd prefer to check-call the flop, or (if I c-bet) fold to the check-raise.

P.S. I'd sometimes just call with AJs in the blinds versus a steal, but I'd have to know this villain's ATS%. Sometimes the value comes from 3-betting and getting called by worse, and sometimes it comes from flatting and letting worse bluff.

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sat Feb 09, 2013 at 12:55 PM..
 

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