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JW - Sun Feb 10, 2013, 12:56 PM
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Originally Posted by holdemace486
And the less of a buyin, the slower the variance on your BR

.................................................. ..............
Where do I start, becuase this is so untrue that it's not even funny!

Variance is due to the odds of a hand winning and is when the worst hand wins repeatedly (EV - actual return). This will happen a given % of the time to any hand, against any hand.

Variance is dictated by the odds of a hand holding and has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BUY-IN!!! The same 52 card deck is used at a 1 cent game, or a $1 game or a $1000 game. THE ODDS DO NOT CHANGE.

A hand is going to lose to another hand the exact same % over time regardless of the buy-in.

John (JWK24)

The odds of an hand holding up is no more than averages.

I am not talking about odds and the way that poker calculates variance through averages.

You have practically just said do not bother with BRM, we use BRM to cover variance.

Odds is not variance.

But i am not getting into a deep variance debate, I promised I would not.

But I did want to say that no one is thinking even remotely close to the understanding off variance as deep as I can see it.

GL all, I posted a new thread to not intrude on Brians thread.

BR variance John, think about it. .....

and I will leave it at that with no more to add to this post.
Sun Feb 10, 2013, 01:14 PM
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Oh dear, I expect another 100+ post thread

imo Variance is the short term luck element in what is a long term skill element. It's what should be expected over a big enough sample and is what I have been achieving over a long enough term.

If you lose then ask yourself why you lost, not blame it on variance. If the luck is not on your side then good, you are not to blame but if you lose because you never bet enough or bet without correct odds then realise it's your mistakes and change your game.

Variance is a bit of a misdemeanor. Stop blaming things on it and analyse your own game.

Bracelet Winner
Sun Feb 10, 2013, 02:28 PM
TOO2COO's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,882
Please send any question you have to JW thru PM





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