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2NL Zoom - Picked up FD + SD, flop decision

2NL Zoom - Picked up FD + SD, flop decision - Mon Feb 11, 2013, 07:50 AM
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214

Here I pick up a FD + SD and maybe even hitting an A would be enough. I wanted to 3bet him, but he pushed AI so I had to reconsider. In the end I decided to call his big overbet on the flop. If I put the board into pokerstove I get that my hand is actually 53% in favor of his hand (not his range). Is this still the case if we give him (an unknown) a default range?

Because of te deep stacks I'm wondering if I made the right decision. Actually my first tought was that I made a big mistake by calling. But I'm actually not so sure.
Mon Feb 11, 2013, 08:47 AM
KKNgroup's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 70
Hey, PokerIggy!

I think we can say nothing about his range, because from that position he could raise with large variety of hands. And with just calling You can not define his strenght. Still this maybe is not the worst move to call here for defending.
I would openraise in Flop, because if he checks back and there are no useful cards for us in turn it would be hard to get any value.
As played - I would reraise larger, not just minbet. I would call his overbet, because of equity.
Mon Feb 11, 2013, 11:09 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,658
(Head Trainer)
Hi Iggy,

Originally Posted by PokerIggy View Post
Actually my first tought was that I made a big mistake by calling. But I'm actually not so sure.
Neither am I since you have no reads. A9s is definitely strong enough to defend vs. a button raise but against an unknown it's not totally clear whether calling or 3-betting is best. Personally I lean towards 3-betting as if we call this hand can be hard to play out of position post flop without the initiative when we connect marginally, and when we miss we could end up folding the best hand to aggression a fair bit. Plus in micros we can get called by worse hands that want to take a flop quite often, so it's a reasonable (maybe a bit thin, but reasonable) value raise.

With this big a draw I would call off for sure. We should still be an equity favorite against his range. We have to win 44% of the time to break even with the price the pot is laying us now. As you note you actually have 53% equity vs. 2 black kings (a small favorite with an overlay from the pot to boot). But even against a range that includes all overpairs, all sets, and some draws like KQ or a smaller flush draw (I added in a combo draw: 8d6d) we are still about 53% (the more draws he takes this action with the better our equity since we dominate all drawing hands... and this action is consistant with how one might play a draw, especially a big draw like KdQd. We are a 65-35 favorite over this draw though.)

As a side note to readers... think about the villain's hand here and put yourself in his shoes. Players who commonly lose at NL often have the problem the villain does in this hand. He's horribly misplayed his KK imo, and probably thinks he's made a good play because he's "protecting his hand" from all the draws. If the depth of money is shallow then his play would be totally fine, but it's not. This is a single raised pot that is 192 bb's deep effective. The only way his stacking off KK on this flop is profitable is if the opponent (our Hero) is stacking off a lot of worse 1 pair hands... and one would have to be a pretty big fish to stack off a lot of worse 1 pair hands this deep stacked. Our Hero has check-raised the flop which on this board represents a fair bit of strength, when V1 shoves he will fold out any bluffs or worse 1 pair hands (if the check/raiser is sane) which he's crushing, and get stacks in for 192bb's against a range that consists of big draws (flipping type equity, often the KK is a slight dog) and 2 pair+ (KK is crushed).

KK is about a 73-27 underdog against a reasonable range that calls his shove.

Board: Js Td 7d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.065% 72.40% 00.67% 22219 204.50 { JJ-TT, 77, AdJd, Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, Qd9d, JTs, Jd9d, Jd8d, 98s, 8d6d, JTo }
Hand 1: 26.935% 26.27% 00.67% 8062 204.50 { KcKs }

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Mon Feb 11, 2013, 05:32 PM
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214
Ty both for your clear answers. Taking a 3bet/fold line PF would be better in this case I think. Also leading on the flop is a line I will take next time.

As played I am verry pleased with you answers as it indicates that I correctly doubted my first thought (making a big mistake by calling his overbet). Thanks.

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