Home / Community / Forum / Poker Community / Brags, Beats and Variance /

Is this a maths bad beat - pot odds and stuff

Old
Default
Is this a maths bad beat - pot odds and stuff - Tue Feb 12, 2013, 10:26 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Is there such a thing as a mathematical bad beat?

I'm thinking this is not a bad beat because over many trials this line is still +EV.

Or is it?

Looks like about 4 : 1 pots odds and I only need evens for a >>flush draw plus two over cards<<
 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 12, 2013, 11:07 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Not a bad beat,totally agree with the call here though. The price you're getting (you're actually closer to 5-1 pot odds then you are to 4-1 here...) this is a call all day long in my book.

We have the nut draw,there are no pairs on board so a boat isn't a worry as of yet,nothing connects for a straight...this is all systems go for a call here.

We only need to be right a little over 22% of the time here to break even and our hand equity is 46.5% when the chips went in the middle,so easily a +EV call.

BTW you only have one over here Forrest,the Kings,Aces are shared. However when the 10 hits the turn any Jack makes Broadway for you,so that's an additional 4 outs you forgot about.

This is one of those spots where we may be behind in hand equity when the chips go in but we're so far ahead on pot equity that the call will be wildly profitable for us over time. Given these pot odds of course.
 
Old
Default
Wed Feb 13, 2013, 12:29 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks Moxie Pip,

Was just having a - Why I never hit my draw when all my chips are in the middle?

I understand all you say apart from the AK are shared?

Is this because it's a 3-bet pot pre and we need to range the villain with maybe an A or K in their calling range on Q high flop?

It felt ok to call and happy I got the numbers correct in my head.
 
Old
Default
Wed Feb 13, 2013, 01:34 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Not a bad beat,totally agree with the call here though. The price you're getting (you're actually closer to 5-1 pot odds then you are to 4-1 here...) this is a call all day long in my book.
Hey Forrest!

I agree with Moxie. I'm calling this all day long. Even if the opp has AQ or KQ, I have 3 outs for an overcard plus the flush draw.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Wed Feb 13, 2013, 04:42 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Thanks Moxie Pip,

Was just having a - Why I never hit my draw when all my chips are in the middle?

I understand all you say apart from the AK are shared?

Is this because it's a 3-bet pot pre and we need to range the villain with maybe an A or K in their calling range on Q high flop?

It felt ok to call and happy I got the numbers correct in my head.

Hey Forrest,just to clear it up...not the AK shared,the ACE shared. You said in your OP that you had the flush draw and TWO overs (which to the board,which is what your basing any call off of...the board and your perceived range of the villains hand...IS correct,you have two overs...). I'm just pointing out then when we do our calculations on outs and odds when the hands are turned up we see that we both have and Ace,so that is no longer an out for us.

My calculation on the profitability of your call was made with all information,thus the hands turned face up,factored in.

As to the feeling like our draws never hit (no matter how many outs we have) and the ops draws never miss (no matter how few outs they have)...yep, I hear ya brother.

Been there,done that,got the t-shirt.

Just keep getting it in good and watch those Sklansky bucks become real bucks.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 04:49 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Feb 13, 2013, 05:27 PM
(#6)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks for clearing that up Moxie Pip.

Reading your first post again paying attention to the commas ...,the Kings,Aces are shared.

Must learn to read.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com