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AKo Vs Active Player (UTG+2)

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AKo Vs Active Player (UTG+2) - Wed Feb 13, 2013, 08:14 PM
(#1)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar


Background:

32 players left (577 started). Hero AKo in (BB) with 13bb Vs Villain (UTG+2) with 19bb who seemed to be playing a fairly wide range. Blinds 400/800 Ante 130.

Villain Hud Stats:

VP 40, PFR 17, 3B 9, CB 100
19 BB, FCB 100 (78)

Notes on Villain:

[P] 3Bet All-In (Eff. Stacks: BB between 5 and 20) with {ATs}
[P] Called a non-shove 2Bet from the blinds with {K9o}
[P] Limp and called a raise with {Q9s}
[F] Donks flop with worse than top pair and no draw

Question:

Correct play?

Any comments / feedback appreciated?
 
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Wed Feb 13, 2013, 11:42 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hey prodigy.

Bud for you to even be asking this on this hand,in this spot,especially against a villain with these stats...you're holding onto the stick too tight.

Absolutely getting it in here. I'm assuming this is not a satellite type structure and we're past the money bubble bursting,yes? We're sitting on a M of 4.2,we LOVE that any player,especially THIS player is giving our BB action with this holding as we want to be chipping up to make the FT. Period.

Only 2 hands in the game that you really don't want to see here,and JJ ain't one of 'em. Get it in every time here. We'll have the opponent crushed or be flipping way,way more times than we'll be in bad shape.

Making FT's means making BIG plays when they present themselves. We'll never get them all to go our way. Point of fact,we'll never get the majority,or anything even approaching it,to go our way. But the times it will,if we practice good BR discipline and game selection,will more than pay for itself. THAT'S what we want.

Right play here all they way and don't give it another thought.
 
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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 04:15 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
With these stack sizes, you can't call the (huge) open. It's either shove or fold.
This villain has shown a propensity to get it in with less than premium hands, but I'd be pretty worried he has TT or JJ here, as villains tend to make larger opens with those hands, as they don't want multiway action.
So it looks you're gonna be almost flipping (about 45% equity) but the dead money in the middle is the padding that makes this a decent stack off. (The final pot was 22878, and you only put in 10319, so you only put in 45%, which is roughly how much equity you had against pocket pairs. If villain also stacks off AQ/AJ, then it's definitely profitable to get it in.)
 
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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 10:40 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Prodigy237!

Please list the type of tournament, as that is crucial information when looking at hands. It can drastically alter the reply, as different tournaments need to be played differently.

Assuming that this is not a league game nor a satellite where I'm near the bubble and have enough chips to get a ticket (both of these would be snap-folds), here is the way that I look at it.

The first thing that I will look at is to call the opp's bet. Since this would be well over 1/3 of my stack, where I'm pot-committed, I would rule out calling. This leaves me with shoving or folding.

I then go to pokerstove and see how much equity my hand has against the opp's range, which is much easier with the HUD numbers. The opp's PFR is 17, so since they raised preflop, 17% will be what I use for the opp in pokerstove. Stove says that I'm a 61.3% favorite against the opp's range. IF I'm up against only the one opponent, then I'm shoving here, as it will always be a +EV play.

However, there is one other thing that must be considered and that is the limper, as they could possibly call too. I wish you had put the stats in for this player too, as their 3-bet call number is definitely relevant. I need to account for the possibility that this could be a 3-way pot. I'll use 17% for the first opp, but since the other opp is not given, I'll assume that since they know it will basically be a 3-way pot, they should be playing a tight range, so I'll assign them a top 7% range. Using this, I get a 36% equity for my AK.
With chips already in the pot, this will also be a +EV play, as I'll never have more than 33% pot equity against 2 opps. However, this is a very marginal +EV spot, as my hand is only a few % higher than my pot equity.

Due to this, if this is a cash tourney, I'm going to shove here and hope that I end up in a heads-up pot against the loose opp, as this will be a much higher +EV play than if the third opp calls. However, if this is a league game or a satty near the bubble, I'm mucking.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 01:13 PM
(#5)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Hey prodigy.

Bud for you to even be asking this on this hand,in this spot,especially against a villain with these stats...you're holding onto the stick too tight.
Moxie,

LOL... I think this was the 4th flip in a row I'd come up short last night with similar +EV plays etc, so I started to question my decisions / the math [... & it was late in the day].

Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi Prodigy237!

Please list the type of tournament, as that is crucial information when looking at hands. It can drastically alter the reply, as different tournaments need to be played differently.

However, there is one other thing that must be considered and that is the limper, as they could possibly call too. I wish you had put the stats in for this player too, as their 3-bet call number is definitely relevant.

John (JWK24)
Hi John,

Apologies, it was a UKIPT Division 2 League game. ITM / Points bubble was around 108 players, but unlike the Open or Premier League there is no additional + points until the FT, hence there is much more emphasis on making the FT.

Also, Limpers stats are as follows:

VP 20, PFR 2, 3B 0, CB -,
21BB, FCB 0 (57)

Notes:

[P] Raised or Called All-in Preflop (Eff. Stacks: BB >= 22) with {TT}

Many thanks,

Prodigy
 
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Thu Feb 14, 2013, 03:05 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Not sure, but looks like ur tracker is taking these notes. If possible, i would suggest adding villain's position to them (as pfr will vary by pos. If villain is aware, so you can add or subtract from that general pfr number depending on his pos when these notes are taken) and game structure. I think those are pretty relevant bits your notes are lacking.
I'm with mox here. Shove to iso your wide guy here imo.
ITM....chipping up here is very important if, like i'm sure you are, going for the win.


May the tinfoil protect you. MT

Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 03:10 PM..
 

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