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you may want to weigh in on this one...

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you may want to weigh in on this one... - Fri Feb 15, 2013, 02:31 AM
(#1)
LPmcGREGOR's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 7
When does a hand go from marginal---weak----strong?
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 02:46 PM
(#2)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
on the flop, naturally.

any 2 are a potential boat on the flop.

sorta goes without sayin', don't it?

the question is, Do ya feel lucky, punk? Do ya?

go ahead. make my day!

lol
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 02:57 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LPmcGREGOR View Post
When does a hand go from marginal---weak----strong?
Hi LPmcGREGOR!

It will depend on position, stack sizes, opp's tendencies (whether they are playing loose or tight) and the number of opps at the table.

Depending on those factors, a hand could end up falling into all 3 categories.... it depends!

John (JWK24)


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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 03:21 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Interesting question. The strength of a hand is relative, both to the board, and the perceived strength of villain's range.

e.g. #1 TAG/nit villain raises under the gun in a full ring game with TT+/AQ+, and we call with 87s and the flop is an 886 rainbow. Our hand is very strong. Villain has no 8s or 6s in his range, but he has several overpairs. An overpair is usually a strong holding on a low paired board, but against our trips (which is super strong against villain's range) he is drawing to 2 outs.

e.g. #2 Same villain, situation and cards for hero. Flop comes 832. We have top pair, but villain's range is heavily weighted to overpairs that crush us. We have 5 outs to take the lead, and it's gonna cost us a lot of chips to try and hit one of them.

e.g. #3 Same situation as above, but we have specifically 8h7h. Flop comes Qh Jh Ts. We have a flush draw and a gutshot, so it looks like we have 12 outs, which would usually be considered a strong draw. However we are in terrible shape against villain's range. Every hand in his range hits this flop. It consists of overpairs with a straight draw (AA/KK), TPTK+gutter (AQ), a made straight (AK, possibly with a redraw to the nut flush with AhKh), and sets (QQ-TT). Hitting the 9 is no good if villain already has Broadway or KK, and we might be overflushed if a heart comes. It's pretty crazy to think about it really. If you totted up your outs and said "I have 12 outs to a flush/gutshot. All in!" and then villain shows you AKhh, you're actually drawing dead on the flop. Against sets you're also in terrible shape, as even if you make the flush/straight, they have a 10-out redraw to a boat/quads.

I hope you get the idea here. A hand's relative strength ebbs and flows depending on the board, but also has to be compared with villain's likely range for continuing. It's kind of mindbending to realise that - against a particular hand, on a particular board - a "12-out draw" can actually be drawing dead on the flop.


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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 03:50 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Here's a funny hand from yesterday's PSO homegame that illustrates the point quite well. We actually got all in on the flop (I even wrote "shove please" in the chatbox, which may have inspired the Poker gods to play a cruel trick on me ), but you should be able to see how the strength of my hand and villain's changes according to the board texture and the betting action.

Villain raises pre in the cutoff with AK and I call with 44 to go set-mining. Pre-flop it's a 50/50 coinflip.
On the flop, villain makes TPTK, which is a pretty strong hand on the flop, but I have him completely crushed with a set. That's what I'm repping with my raise. I always have 2pr or a set here and I want to get all in. Villain should seriously consider folding AK, because he's been given a good clue that his hand is not so strong on this board against my raising range.
Villain re-raises, because he overvalues his TPTK and I shove it all in with 93.5% equity. Villain can only win with a runner-runner flush or full house.
On the turn, I make a boat, which is a very strong hand, but it's still losing to AA, A7 or A3. Trip aces, king kicker is also a strong hand in normal circumsances, but not here.
And then there's the brutal river. I have the worst full house possible on this board, and villain has the best. If I'd slowplayed and just called 2 streets to keep the pot small (something I never do with bottom set, btw), I'd even consider folding my full house on this river, because there would be a good chance that it's not the best hand.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:54 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 05:07 PM
(#6)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
Yes, well you should know those poker gods are a finicky lot.

Fact is, Art, I had already shoved before I noticed what you'd put in the chat window. I suppose in retrospect, and out of respect, I might have folded had I known you were this online pokerschool guru.

As I recall you cursed and moaned at those pokergods and did everything but call me a donk. I just simply rebutted with "there's no crying in poker".

If it dulls the pain any for you I did go on to finish in 3rd place.

Sorry for the bb. Next time I'll likely accord you a little more respect.

I like your writing, btw.

duly villified

Don
 
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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 07:10 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
I might have cursed and moaned if it had been a real money game, as that's the worst bad beat I've had for a while, but I'm very careful not to berate players directly and would never hurl insults at them.

I've got the hand history (replete with chatter) in front of me, and I didn't say anything personal, just "Brutal. So obvious I had you beat. runner runner suckout with 7% equity. gg"

FWIW, I was laughing within 2 seconds of closing the table.

Congrats on your fine finish!

Cheers,
Arty


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Mon Apr 08, 2013, 07:10 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
[Dupe post. My connection to server must be flakey]


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:11 PM.. Reason: dupe removed
 

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