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$7M Guaranteed good or bad?

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$7M Guaranteed good or bad? - Fri Feb 15, 2013, 10:58 PM
(#1)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
On March 3rd PokerStars will be making the Sunday Million a $7 million guaranteed prize pool with $1 million guaranteed 1st place. My question is what is this likely to do to the tournament? Field size, skill level and how it plays out.

I ask because I have a ticket for the million and was considering saving it for this date. However I'm unsure if it's wise. With the field being likely much larger and with possibly more fishy players attracted by the obvious huge value, is it worth it? With the extra value/large field will it be easier to cash or more likely to bust early? Your thoughts on a post card.



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Fri Feb 15, 2013, 11:58 PM
(#2)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
the guarantuee will super boost the player pool for sure. this means a way softer field than usual, especially as there are plenty of sats. big fields but also have a higher variance and the last time the million was that big it took ages, was something like 14-15h if i remember it correct. was railling the ft next day noon (MET). so if it´s ok for you to grind your way through a way larger field and if your roll is good enough to face the higher variance, i would go for it. the million has a really great structure for a good player to develop and maintain an edge. to lower variance a bit it might be a good idea to sell some shares.
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 12:39 AM
(#3)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Well I got the ticket free as part of the million club promotion so I'm free rolling. Even a min cash would be a pretty big boost to my roll though. Not being an MTT specialist the higher variance worries me. That's why I'm thinking it might be better to play a regular Sunday.

Thanks for your thoughts.



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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 01:55 AM
(#4)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
sounds like you are a bit money scared. sell some shares, be happy about the profit you already made and take the tourney as what is to you - just a freeroll. good luck!
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 02:49 AM
(#5)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Before selling share, since it's won by promotion. we better ask the moderator 1st for clarification.

PH

.
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 06:36 AM
(#6)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I think it would be fine to sell shares as it's his ticket. Any profits are also his so I wouldn't worry about running it by a mod.

As to the ticket, yes I would most definitely keep it for this event. As mentioned above this will be a very soft field for the Million and have a decent flat payout.

You're freerolling, just forget about the prize and concentrate on the game. As mentioned above don't play with scared money as it's not your money you're playing with in the first place


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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 07:15 AM
(#7)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
the SM usually has (from what i've seen) a prize pool of about 1.5M ish. and might swell to 3 times that (a guess) that still means there should be a HUGE overlay in the prize pool that sunday, and lots and lots of dead money to be had by the more astute players.


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 07:37 AM
(#8)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
the SM usually has (from what i've seen) a prize pool of about 1.5M ish. and might swell to 3 times that (a guess) that still means there should be a HUGE overlay in the prize pool that sunday, and lots and lots of dead money to be had by the more astute players.
I think you're wrong here. Pokerstars are no mugs when they offer a guarantee and I've only ever seen one game that had a few cents of an overlay. I think this will easily meet it's target especially with the late reg's.

I think the value in this game is the softer field and scared money

Expect 1,000 guaranteed seats for a $11 buy in, 5 minutes before this game starts, I'll guarantee you won't see an overlay in this game either.


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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 07:58 AM
(#9)
DiveAllIn's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 377
if u are selling i would definitely be interested in buying

GL whatever u decidet to do
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 08:22 AM
(#10)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fadyen View Post
On March 3rd PokerStars will be making the Sunday Million a $7 million guaranteed prize pool with $1 million guaranteed 1st place. My question is what is this likely to do to the tournament? Field size, skill level and how it plays out.

I ask because I have a ticket for the million and was considering saving it for this date. However I'm unsure if it's wise. With the field being likely much larger and with possibly more fishy players attracted by the obvious huge value, is it worth it? With the extra value/large field will it be easier to cash or more likely to bust early? Your thoughts on a post card.
most off these tournaments iv seen in the million promotion like the 7mil prize pool have about 25k runners
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 08:31 AM
(#11)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Some interesting points. Think I might just play a regular one and if I cash big will consider playing the $7M guarantee. Not so much because it's scared money but if it's a 25k field in a slower structure like the million it could take a long long time and it starts in the evening for me as it is. Ain't nobody got time for that.. lol.



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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 08:46 AM
(#12)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
If. Indeed there are 25k runners there is still over 1.5M in overlay. There needs to be 32.5ishk runners to meet the guarantee. Even still, think about how much of those entry fees stars will be paying the entry for via satty tics. Meaning (to me) a huge overlay of mostly dead (or at least scared) money will be up for grabs by the more savvy players.


May the tinfoil protect you. MT

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:48 AM..
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 08:48 AM
(#13)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
My first thought is to ask, does the ticket have an expiry date?

If not, I wouldn't be in any hurry to play a tourney way above my usual BR, I would be looking for an optimal time/date.

(But..I would want to ensure that I do use the ticket sometime before I expire.)

Then I would ask, is the date in question feasible. If that Sunday is my girlfriends' birthday [note the placing of the apostrophe(], or I have a holiday booked in the USA, or if I promised to help a friend move house - (or any other clashes) - or even if I need to be up at 6am the next day for any reason, I might just say meh, not for me this one. But if the date looks feasible,and maybe I can be flexible the next day too - I would plan to play.

This is exactly the sort of potentially added value tourney I would want to use the ticket for, and if I felt that this date was going to be just as good as any other (until maybe the 10th anniversary) I would plan to play it, organise for it, and as long as I was feeling good on the day I would go for it.

I wouldn't sell shares myself - selling 20% say for $40odd is not going to even out the variance much - and say a min cash is $450 I don't want to give up $90 of that potential - even more so if I get deeper. I would rather take 100% of this shot myself and if I was going to sell $40 action I think it would be better to sell $40 worth of shares in a run of my regular $1 games, to even out the variance for both myself and my investors - but this is very much a personal opinion.

Using the ticket has zero effect on my BR anyway as it is essentially a Freeroll.

The bigger/softer field I think is a big advantagefor a player of my standard/experience. Yes, all the good poker players will want to play this one, but so will all the shot-takers, the wealthier recreationals etc. The chances that each table I am sat at in the early stages will have some extra exploitable players will increase, and that gives me a better chance to maintain and improve my stack. I know I'm not the best player but I would hope to not be the worst at any table here either.

So - you have time to decide, and only you can make the decisions. Best of luck with whatever you go with and don't be scared of it - a great opportunity. The worst that can happen is you walk away with a useful experience and 82.50VPPs.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 09:12 AM
(#14)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fadyen View Post
Some interesting points. Think I might just play a regular one and if I cash big will consider playing the $7M guarantee. Not so much because it's scared money but if it's a 25k field in a slower structure like the million it could take a long long time and it starts in the evening for me as it is. Ain't nobody got time for that.. lol.
You bring up a valid point but don't equate double the field with double the length of time. Most of the maniacs will go early, bad play will still get rid of the bad players. If you go deep in this (which is what you want) would you really mind play 14 hours instead of 12 for an extra $10k?


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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 09:14 AM
(#15)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
$7M anytime is good

sell some shares and you will be sure of some BR left with you and I'm definitely buying
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 09:44 AM
(#16)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,020
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PINOY_HITMAN View Post
Before selling share, since it's won by promotion. we better ask the moderator 1st for clarification.
PH
.
Hi Pinoy,

It's Faydens ticket now and he's free to do with it what he wishes.

If he wants to sell shares for the event that's entirely up to him

Raiser


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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 10:48 AM
(#17)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I don't think there's going to be any overlay. Expect to see above 35,000 players and that it will last about 16-17 hours.

Anybody that has won tickets to the Million, should be playing in this one, no questions about it. The odds are the same, yes there's more people and there might be more fishes and donks, just play ABC and be patient.

Sell shares, do what ever it takes, but don't miss it, but remember BRM. If you can't afford it, buy a share.

Good Luck to those participating
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 10:58 AM
(#18)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
I'm all over this....hiccup

Going to see how far 27o will get me

Cheers All
 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 11:15 AM
(#19)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Well it's costing me nothing so I don't think I'm too bothered about selling shares. In the very unlikely event I did take it down I'd feel a little sick shipping people tens of thousands of dollars lol.

I think it might be a good idea for me to learn more about the tourney. Might rail it this Sunday and see how long it last, how long until ITM, average stacks at that point.. that kind of thing.

Thanks for everyone's input. I was just a little worried that with the added value it might attract the kind of maniacs I see at my regular level of game. And also the time factor, if it's going to take an extra couple of hours to make the money will it hinder my chances. And quite right Ed, I'll need to check my calendar.



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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 11:28 AM
(#20)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fadyen View Post
Well it's costing me nothing so I don't think I'm too bothered about selling shares. In the very unlikely event I did take it down I'd feel a little sick shipping people tens of thousands of dollars lol.

Greedy people never win

I think it might be a good idea for me to learn more about the tourney. Might rail it this Sunday and see how long it last, how long until ITM, average stacks at that point.. that kind of thing.

I can tell you it will run longer, same for ITM, average stack ....really. JUST PLAY YOUR GAME

Thanks for everyone's input. I was just a little worried that with the added value it might attract the kind of maniacs I see at my regular level of game. And also the time factor, if it's going to take an extra couple of hours to make the money will it hinder my chances. And quite right Ed, I'll need to check my calendar.

You will see maniacs for sure, like any other games but less at this level. BE PATIENT AND PLAY ABC. If you want to play aggressive and bluff often, than this game won't last long, so no worries about time.
 

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