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1st Hand of 50c 45man SnG

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1st Hand of 50c 45man SnG - Sat Feb 16, 2013, 06:15 PM
(#1)
IrishNinja91's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 176
This was the very 1st hand of this SnG, what would you do?

 
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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 09:45 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi IrishNinja91!

With JJ on the button, I see three shoves in front of me. Let's take a look at the odds and see if a call is justified.

I'll have to call basically 1/4 pot, so my pot equity is 25%.

I now go to pokerstove to see how much equity I have. Each subsequent shove should be done on a tighter and tighter range. Due to this, I'll assign a 15% range to the first opp, a 10% range to the second opp and a 5% range to the third opp. I get 28.5% hand equity, so it could be a marginal call.

However, I'm going to lose and be ko'd over 70% of the time here, which is a risk that I'm not going to be willing to take, as I should be able to find a much better situation to get my chips into... one where I'm going to be the favorite to win the hand and not a large underdog to win the hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Feb 16, 2013, 10:10 PM
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Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
I fold here myself,with not any problem.

As JW pointed out it's,AT BEST,a marginal call on the pure math,but we have tournament EV considerations that are against us here.

IF we win the hand we have 6k in chips right off the bat. Yes,that's about as great a start as we can ever hope for,but I've played more than enough 45 mans,and I know you have as well ninja,to realize that 6k chips early in a 45 man may increase my chances of cashing and getting into the top 3,but it GUARANTEES me nothing.

The inverse is that we get railed here,which will happen more than 70% of the time...well myself I've never yet found a way to accomplish a whole Helluva lot from the rail.

We could be in a situation where all of the players have shared outs,like say it were AK,AQ and Ax...then,if we KNEW that was the case,this becomes a call. But,as we were here,we're so many times going to be up against an over pair...many times more than one...that it's a muck.

Truth be told I would probably fold QQ here as well,would have to have solid notes on at least 2 of the players that could put them,consistently,on shoving or calling with less. I have either of the callers pegged as a TAG or Nit...auto-muck.
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 01:29 PM
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IrishNinja91's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 176
Thanks for the opinions both and a look into the math side of things from that situation. With no read on either of the player and knowing that when you have a pair you can be sure someone else has a higher or lower pair than you, with all that into consideration it was an easy fold for me. Like John said I'm going to find a better place to get my stack in and be favorite.

JJ here for me just wasn't strong enough, and like you said Moxie, folding QQ here is probably the right choice too. KK here for me is a call though, not liking the call but we all have to make calls we don't like sometimes.

Thanks again
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 01:34 PM
(#5)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Easy fold Ninja, without the maths it won't win us the tourney and there are so many overcards that can hit our oppoent s range then it's -ev to our play. We may have the best hand but we are not favourite to win this hand.

Don't cry over it, you made the correct decision. Interesting hand though and shows you what players are risking their tournament with. I'm folding QQ also but only rarely KK and never AA in this spot.


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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 01:34 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,783
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishNinja91 View Post

JJ here for me just wasn't strong enough, and like you said Moxie, folding QQ here is probably the right choice too. KK here for me is a call though, not liking the call but we all have to make calls we don't like sometimes.
I totally agree too. I'm calling with AA or KK, but mucking QQ (unless I have notes on the opps saying that they're all maniacs, then I'll cringe and call).

John (JWK24)


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