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5NL 6-max Zoom - Open 99 utg, flat +1, folds to me oop, c-bet gets raised...

5NL 6-max Zoom - Open 99 utg, flat +1, folds to me oop, c-bet gets raised... - Sun Feb 17, 2013, 12:27 AM
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036

This is another aggressive line by a villain and I don't believe it.

I open 99 utg, villain just flat calls +1, folds to me oop, my c-bet gets raised?

The flop looks like a nut flush draw but the bet sizing was quite aggressive post flop but remember the over call pre?

Sick but I take the line to >>x/c 3 barrels<< if it smells like a shark fishing...

Won't bore you with today's losing set over turned set or AA getting cracked x4. Boring sob stories.
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 01:38 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Forrest,

I'm glad you posted this, because usually when people get a good result they dismiss the possibility that they made mistakes and thus continue to make them.

Without reads that the villain is a big bluffer, this is really an easy fold imo.

You are suspicous this is a nut flush draw, but why? You have no reads (that you shared with us). A nut flush draw is a possibility for sure, but so are Kx, 33, 55 for instance. Personally if I flopped a set I would raise you on the flop too similar to this and be barreling all streets to extract value from AK.

Here's the problem with calling down here. If he's got the nut flush draw with 2 overs (AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, etc) he's a 56% favorite to win by the river when he raises you on the flop, with the ability to barrel the turn and put additional pressure on you. Against a king or set you have 2 outs and are destroyed. So the only hands you actually are a favorite over at this point are random total bluffs. If you run your equity vs. a range of big kings, small sets, and big flush draws, you're about 87-13 dog. So he needs to have a fair bit of the random bluffs in there to make calling him down a good play.

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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:30 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Call me a nit, but I'm folding to that raise every time against anyone except a known maniac, or someone that alwasys raises with draws.
The last thing I want to do is get value-owned oop with an underpair.

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