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NL2, 88 flopped set, lost on what to do on turn and river

NL2, 88 flopped set, lost on what to do on turn and river - Sun Feb 17, 2013, 09:17 AM
Ronin_74th's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 17

no reads on villain, when he lead the turn I thought about reraising incase he had a jack but pssed out lol. What should I have done on turn??
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 10:43 AM
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089

I don't think there is a whole lot you can do on the turn and river here. At 2NL it is usually safe to assume a random villain suddenly betting into the aggressor has a hand. 56s, 87, 9T, AJ, 44, 77 are all easily in villains range.

I do like the turn call. OK pot odds, 10 outs (board pairs), and huge implied odds since we can assume villain has a hand. A nine would probably chop pot as well. Not a fan of re-raising. If villain calls then your in the exact same situation on river, but now the pot is bloated. Also if villain re-raise shoves over you, you now have to commit your stack to get to showdown or fold.

River... just yucky. I'm not sure what is best to do here. When I am completely lost as to what is the best play, I usually lean towards folding.
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 12:08 PM
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
bet big flop, shove to donk bet on turn!

what makes me thinking is the turn donk. what has changed on the board structure which makes villain thinking about changing his line from passive to aggressive? - the answer should be, straight and flush draw, two pair, slowplayed overpairs or top pair which he wants to protect against the flush and straight draw.

straigt draw arrives but not the flush which rules out 2/3 of the draws on river for a value bet. top pair and and two pair will mostlikely bet as they don´t want to fold to a bluff after a check, so i think most of the time you´re still ahead here and given by the pots odds you have to call. yes, you will look into a str8 from to time and lose the pot.

no point in betting the river. i don´t see worse hands calling that often, so a bet is only isolating yourself against the straights when get called and all other hands you have beat.
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:49 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
The turn donk looks a lot like T9 just got there, so you have 10 outs to a boat/quads. Just calling is fine. Folding the river is also fine. nh, unlucky.
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 02:54 AM
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
It's kinda gross because of the T OTR and I haven't done any exact math but I think the villain can show up with 2 pair in the form of J8/J7 enough of the time to make this a call. Sure he'll also have a straight a lot of the time but we play against the opponents range and imo you have the right equity to call against his range.

As for shipping the turn as DD said, I don't like it. You needlessy bloat the pot and give him a chance to fold worse hands that may keep barreling (said 2 pair). Calling keeps his range wider and allows you to draw out to a full house when behind for a reasonable price.

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Last edited by Croyd93; Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 02:56 AM..
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 04:37 AM
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Originally Posted by Ronin_74th View Post

no reads on villain, when he lead the turn I thought about reraising incase he had a jack but pssed out lol. What should I have done on turn??
Hi Ronin_74th

Tough spot wow! I like your bet sizing preflop and on the flop. However, a read would help tremendously in knowing what to do on the turn. Without a read I agree with the others. When opponents passively call bets on the early streets, then wake up and start betting on the turn or river, it is usually a tell of a strong hand at 2NL.

I would call the turn bet. Your hand still has showdown value and you have plenty of outs to improve if you are facing a straight. With a read, then yes raising might be the best way to go. However, withought a read keep the pot under control and hope your hand improves on the river. You don't want to raise, get 3-bet and have to fold.

The river didn't help you, and may have helped the villain. Without a read, I would recommend folding here too. The villain's betting looks like a straight.

Now, the important question. Both you and the villain have decent stacks. So, neither of you is new to the table apparently. How did the villain get his chips? What has he showndown? This hand illustrates why we need to keep an eye on everyone. A read may have completely changed our thinking on this hand...

I think you played fine in a tough spot

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX

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