Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Cash Games /

[NL5 FR] Line Check - Top Pair OOP exploiting a Reg

Old
Default
[NL5 FR] Line Check - Top Pair OOP exploiting a Reg - Sun Feb 17, 2013, 10:24 AM
(#1)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
I think an interesting hand between a TAGish regular and me. Reg is known, we have some history, he´s playing good for that stakes, but so far mostly abc and he´s a winning player. he´s multitabling.

stats for villain so far 17/14/4 (VPIP/PFR/AF). sample is around 100 hands so postflop stats aren´t worth that much and they weren´t part of my postflop decisions. postflop decision are based on read. by the history we had i charcterize him as very aggressive in general but not overaggressive.

the picture he should have about me: looking reggish, capable of folding and backplaying, stealing a lot, set mining a lot against tight players, overall not that drawy, positional awareness.

UTG+2: $10.62 (212.4 bb)
MP1: $6.98 (139.6 bb)
MP2: $2.42 (48.4 bb)
MP3: $5.19 (103.8 bb)
CO: $10.63 (212.6 bb)
BTN: $4.55 (91 bb)
SB: $1.88 (37.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $4.93 (98.6 bb)
UTG+1: $2.97 (59.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q T
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.14, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.09

I think that QTs has a good playabilty against a standard TAG. Good blocker and it´s unusal to my previous holdings when calling. Thought about 3 betting but this would be very bluffy and i don´t have that much data to decide wether the bluff itself is profit or not. So I went with the call as I´m sure I can win it often enough even out of position. My image should be good enough to make him believe in a strong passive blind defend range.

Flop: ($0.30) 5 T 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.55, MP1 calls $0.35

The flop is very unlikely to have hit his range. I think I can represent a set and an overpair as well, which was part of my plan so I decided to play it C/R as I was sure of villains c-bet. Villain tanked, used a few seconds of the time bank but finally called.

I think he´s reggish, he´s a TAG but so far he didn´t showed that he´s creative. I don´t expect him to call down with an overpair but to R/F. With a middle pocket he may could call and may be with two overs like AK or AJ. With TT or KK+ I expect him to go broke on flop. I think he´s doing something unusual, because he´s for sure experienced enough to play a set or an overpair his standard way in this spot. for an easy standard decision he doesn´t need the time bank in my eyes, but that´s a soft tell.

Turn: $1.40)
8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP1 raises to $1.98

WOW! Something i didn´t expected to happen to be honest. I tanked... the line looks fishy, but villain isn´t. The 8 shouldn´t change much. I don´t see any hand which could improve to a draw which is still in here. 88 could have called the flop but it´s very close i think. tilt move, a spewy bluff based on his image may be too.

a) do you agree to my line so far?
b) what would you do and what is more important why!?

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:27 AM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:03 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I don't really like your flop raise. The flop is super dry. Villain is usually folding all his air, and re-raising or calling with everything better than your hand. I'm not sure why you're trying a rep a set or an overpair. Do you want villain to fold?

His call is quite suspicious. He can indeed have TT+, meaning you're in terrible shape in a pot you bloated needlessly.
The 8 on the turn is fairly meaningless. When villain raises here, it's because he either hit a set after making a loose call on the flop, or because he put you on one pair all along and he has TT+.

Turn raises are seldom bluffs, except when villain has a decent combo draw. Since this board is a 4-suit rainbow with no made straights and few draws, I think you have to give villain credit for an overpair or a set and get out of there.

I'd prefer a more passive line with your hand. Just check-call the flop and turn, to keep the pot small. You only have one pair with a fairly good kicker. You don't want to play for stacks with this hand.
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:28 PM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I don't really like your flop raise. The flop is super dry. Villain is usually folding all his air, and re-raising or calling with everything better than your hand. I'm not sure why you're trying a rep a set or an overpair. Do you want villain to fold?
yes, that´s exactly what i want and thats why i was calling preflop.

Quote:
His call is quite suspicious. He can indeed have TT+, meaning you're in terrible shape in a pot you bloated needlessly.
not really suspicious. he´s a good regular player and he knows as much about me as i know about him. so i would expect him to call sometimes with hands like AK or AJ, just in case my C/R was bluff, but this wouldn´t be standard and a tough decision for him. in addition i´m blocking 2/3 of the TT combos and some additional combos for QQ and AQ.

Quote:
The 8 on the turn is fairly meaningless. When villain raises here, it's because he either hit a set after making a loose call on the flop, or because he put you on one pair all along and he has TT+.
TT is a set and i´m representing a set or an overpair, blocking TT,QQ and AQ. I give him a hard time to go on with JJ+. therefore i expect at least KK+ to reraise/shove the flop already. yes, the 8 is a blank to my books too, that´s why i was surprised by the raise.

Quote:
Turn raises are seldom bluffs, except when villain has a decent combo draw. Since this board is a 4-suit rainbow with no made straights and few draws, I think you have to give villain credit for an overpair or a set and get out of there.
that´s the point of the hand. if it would be played between a fish and me i would be out no question. so what´s the point for the regular to raise the turn but not the flop? - only reason could be that he thinks i might be bluffing and he´s trapping me, but why should he do that only with hands like JJ+ and why is this a tough decision for him? and most of all why did he raise the flop now instead of simply calling me down for max value?

Quote:
I'd prefer a more passive line with your hand. Just check-call the flop and turn, to keep the pot small. You only have one pair with a fairly good kicker. You don't want to play for stacks with this hand.
if my plan for the hand would have been to play it passive, i wouldn´t have been in that hand as i see no way how to make this profit versus villains range. i admit it´s a very loose and aggressive move but my general style is very TAGish not to say nitty and switching the gears against regs is higly profit when you have a tight image.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 04:37 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:39 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
You don't make money in poker by getting opponents to fold worse hands. You make money from them CALLING with worse hands.
By raising, and trying to get villain to fold JJ+, you are effectively turning your hand into a bluff.
There is no need to turn your hand into a bluff. You have a hand with value.
If you'd missed the flop completely, THEN you can bluff-raise, but with top pair you should try and get one or two streets of value.

To take an extreme example, if you want villain to fold on the flop, then call pre with 32o and raise the flop with that hand. Turning top pair into a bluff is burning money.
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:58 PM
(#5)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
You don't make money in poker by getting opponents to fold worse hands. You make money from them CALLING with worse hands.
there are no worse hands than QTs in villains range. the plan is that villain has to fold most of the time as long as i don´t get an A high flop and that´s where the profit is. my hand is definitely below villains range. my hand is borderlined to a 20% range and i expect villain to raise UTG around 8-10%. that´s why i choosed that spot. the small range of villain makes it easier on the flop.

Quote:
By raising, and trying to get villain to fold JJ+, you are effectively turning your hand into a bluff.
yes, that´s the plan for the hand. i wanted to bluff villain off the hand. to backup the plan i choosed a hand with blocking potential and drawing potential. but you have to understand that JJ+ is only 25% of the combos villain will hold in that spot. what i want him to fold is hands like 88,99,AJs,AQs,AKs,AJo,AQo,AQs. that´s 3/4 of this range.

Quote:
There is no need to turn your hand into a bluff. You have a hand with value.
i think that i´m 60:40 underdog preflop against villains range and postflop i expect it to be the other way round. being out of position it´s tough to realize the advantage in equity. as we´re talking about villains utg-range and it´s full ring the game is very tight. so i´m not in that good shape as you may think. the point is that it´s not that unlikely to get a card higer than a T on turn and river and i don´t want that to happen as i don´t have a backdoor. also i don´t expect villain to second barrel to another blank with hands i have beat on flop. may be he will bluff bet a river but to find this out i have to give him a free river card too which i don´t like. again villain is a regular and knows as much about me as i do about him so far.

Quote:
If you'd missed the flop completely, THEN you can bluff-raise, but with top pair you should try and get one or two streets of value.
i agree on the value part but not for the risk of giving away two free cards.

Quote:
To take an extreme example, if you want villain to fold on the flop, then call pre with 32o and raise the flop with that hand. Turning top pair into a bluff is burning money.
i like your last example as you described exactly what my plan was. only thing is that i choosed a hand with some more blocking and drawing potential.

edit: hmmm, i still don´t think that hitting top pair is changing that much, but i have to admit that i didn´t reevaluated the plan on flop to that. something to keep in mind. the point of changing isn´t for sure the T but what if i flop top pair with QJs in a similar spot? - something i should check in calculator.

edit2: things turn to 70:30 when holding QJs on a Q high flop and 66:33 on a J high flop. should keep that in mind. especially how the board plays on turn and river. thanks for your input Arty!

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:20 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 06:45 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I mostly take issue eith this idea: "what i want him to fold is hands like 88,99,AJs,AQs,AKs,AJo,AQo,AQs. that´s 3/4 of this range."

You are beating all those hands, and they have few outs to beat you. If you just check-call the flop, the only bad cards for you are kings and aces and maybe jacks. Imagine if the turn is a queen, giving you top two. If villain has AQ or KK+, you're winning his stack. If he has AK or AJ, then a queen gives him a straight draw, so he'll probably bet again, giving you another street of value. A ten obviously gives you trips, so you'd be beating all his overpairs. Anything lower than a ten, you still have top pair, and can call again, unless you're sure he has an overpair.

So it's really only about 30% of the deck that is bad for you. Most of the turn cards will be fine, and you can narrow villain's range based on how he acts on the turn. If the turn is bad for you and villain bets, you can check-fold, having lost the minimum. If it's good and/or villain checks, then you're usually in good shape to bet the river for value.

Your original plan to try and bluff villain off his hand is fine for when you miss the flop, but when you make top pair, you gain some showdown value, so the plan should change.
The basic idea is that you have a farily good hand that doesn't warrant a big pot ("big hand, big pot, small hand, small pot"), but is something with showdown value. If you can get to showdown with two small streets of value from QT top pair, then you're doing fine. It's certainly better than just winning whatever villain puts in as his c-bet, before he folds, or - even worse - raising the flop and bloating the pot, and then having to fold when villain shoves either on the flop or a later street.
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 06:56 PM
(#7)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
heey DD,
a few things first.

that´s the point of the hand. if it would be played between a fish and me i would be out no question. so what´s the point for the regular to raise the turn but not the flop? - only reason could be that he thinks i might be bluffing and he´s trapping me, but why should he do that only with hands like JJ+ and why is this a tough decision for him? and most of all why did he raise the flop now instead of simply calling me down for max value?

Read more: [NL5 FR] Line Check - Top Pair OOP exploiting a Reg - PokerSchoolOnline Forum http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz2LCfNLZ00

a regular in 5nl is in what i have seen verry tight and rarely makes moves.
then you say he knows the same about you as you about him. first he is a multitabler second u cant be sure that he is using a HUD so if he isnt using a HUD it could easily be that he doesnt now how you have been playing so you can have been a nit before but u cant know if he knows.

then about the hand.
i like the call preflop q-10s is a hand that flops nicely.
then on the flop with your checkraise you are saying i have a set or nothing. a checkraise smells pretty bluffish indeed but a multitabling regular doesnt always notice it that way. so i think he is only calling you with a-10 or a set. which brings me to the turn i read the hand street for street and i fel the raise comming and right now im put him on 33/55 he isnt doing this with a-10 and i dont think he would have called the flop with 88. overpairs ar e still in his range but that seems not to likely because a overpair should be a litle scard for a set seeing how you have played.

to recap.
pre flop call is good
on the flop i would ceck call
turn im 99% of the time folding here i think he is beatnig our range big time without giving us much outs. i would only call here if i had notes on him that he has been bluffing allot.

hope this helps


Triple Bracelet Winner

 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 07:14 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
P.S. I've seen some of the graphs you posted in your time vault thread, as well as the one in your blog.
As I mentioned on your blog a few days ago, your redline and blueline are atypical for winning players. (Indeed, ythe graph on your blog is like an upside down version of mine).
At the microstakes especially, maximum value comes from winning pots at showdown. Most profit doesn't come from sexy things like 3-betting pre-flop, stealing blinds, or making bluffs. It comes from making a hand, getting multiple streets of value from a calling station, and showing down the best hand after the river.

Poker profit doesn't come from winning pots per se. It comes from giving up on small pots, and winning big ones.
When you make bluffs on the flop, you only win a small pot when villain folds. The big pots are won when you get 2 or 3 streets of value with the best hand.
So, basically, I think you're probably being a little too aggressive with marginal hands, and should be more inclined to try and get to cheap showdowns with those (or just fold them). Reserve the big bets and raises for times when you're pretty sure you have the best hand, and cut down on your bluffing.
If you look at the graphs in your time vault thread, notice how all your winning sessions had big profits from showdown winnings (the blue line). Stealing blinds and winning pots pre-flop and on the flop might make your redline stay fairly level, or slightly positive, but the really big wins come from showdown winnings. It is those that you should be focussing on building. Good luck!
 
Old
Default
Sun Feb 17, 2013, 08:42 PM
(#9)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I mostly take issue eith this idea: "what i want him to fold is hands like 88,99,AJs,AQs,AKs,AJo,AQo,AQs. that´s 3/4 of this range."

You are beating all those hands, and they have few outs to beat you.
pls use equilator or pokerstove. give villain a hand range of AT+,88+ and you will see that we´re only a few percentages ahead on flop. as a fact when we substract rake we´re close to a flip and we´re out of position so we need a plan to realize the value. its a huge mistake for villain to fold hands out of his range beside 88 and 99. in addition we give away most of our future value on later streets when the board shows an overcard to the T.

i understood that you don´t like the play on flop and i understood your reasons. we have a different approach on poker at this point.

i´m going for a crushing approach on the micros. i played for a long time and i already played up to NL400. i was out almost two years and i thought it would be burning money to cash in and start on NL50 or NL100. I choosed the crushing approach, maintaining a positive redline because i know that microstakes players are way to loose and way to passive most of the time.

the "overaggressive" play needs more postflop experience and i think i´m experienced enough to manage that. i don´t play unknown players and fish that way. i start to adapt and exploit that hard a player of which i have seen at least 100 hands and of which i think i have some solid reads.

in this hand i was very sure about villains range and also very sure about villains move on turn. i believe he´s playing straight forward most of the time and he tries to exploit similar to what i do from what i´ve seen so far. what made me thinking is that this kind of play villain showed is unusual for a NL5 reg and i don´t have expected it. that´s why i came here to make a line check, to check if i may have overplayed the hand. that´s a part of my overall gameplan as i try to reflect on my game and improve this way as much as i can.

i think it works out so far. i have crushed NL2 and NL5 and i´m crushing NL10 actually within 3 weeks of playing. of course i can´t say how much was luck but that´s why i work that hard on my game, to make sure i continue to improve. otherwise starting from the micros would have been a waste of time to me and i´m investing actually a huge amount of time compared to the money i make, but nevertheless my plan is to move up as fast as possible and to me the best way seems to use my postflop skills and try to crush it.

@adohole: thanks for your comment. i don´t see him raising 33/55 pre but the point you mentioned is basically the one which made me thinking. i tanked because i thought about 88 which is bottom of his range. the point is that i would have expected him to happily raise me on flop with a set and most overpairs. if he really believes i have bluffed and that´s the interesting point, i was sure he will do that with a lot more hands and not only 88 as his whole range should beat my bluffs when it comes to showdown and i have top pair as a backup for that (which has btw. improved a lot in equity on turn if i´m right). that´s the big question - am i overthinking/overexploiting at that point and what´s the best way to go on!?

the regular TAGs you describe have normally stats of 12/10 or 10/7 and i would be out against them on turn. our villain has 17/14 and is aware of position.
 
Old
Default
Mon Feb 18, 2013, 03:43 AM
(#10)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
heey DD i feel like your overthinking it to much i dont give a 5nl player crdit for being capable of making a play. if he could do that i think he would already have moved up. the other thing if he isnt using a hud he doesnt know that your tight

gl and hope this helps


Triple Bracelet Winner

 
Old
Default
Mon Feb 18, 2013, 05:25 AM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
It's good to see you thinking deeply about all this, but I think you're overthinking too. There's not much need for a levelling war at these stakes.

Quote: "pls use equilator or pokerstove. give villain a hand range of AT+,88+ and you will see that we´re only a few percentages ahead on flop. as a fact when we substract rake we´re close to a flip."

You've got 60% equity on the flop, which is pretty good for a one pair hand.

Board: 3dTs5c
Equity Win Tie
Villain 40.37% 40.32% 0.06% { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hero 59.63% 59.57% 0.06% { QcTc }

Your equity actually slips a little to 57% on the turn, because 88 gets there, so if villain called the flop raise with that, you're now drawing dead.

QUOTE: "the point is that i would have expected him to happily raise me on flop with a set and most overpairs. if he really believes i have bluffed and that´s the interesting point, i was sure he will do that with a lot more hands and not only 88 as his whole range should beat my bluffs"

If he thinks you are bluffing, then why would he re-raise the flop? If he re-raises, then you fold all your bluffs. He doesn't want you to fold the worst hand. He wants you to give him some chips. The best way to play against a bluffer when you have a real hand is to LET THEM bluff.
We know this guy has overpairs in his range and he's a fairly decent player. If he thinks you're bluffing sometimes, then flatting with hands like JJ+ is ideal. He can let you spew off more of your stack on the turn and river. He gets his value by CALLING with the best hand, not by raising and making you fold. He also knows that sometimes you have a set (that's what you were repping) so he doesn't want to get his money in if he's in terrible shape. If this guy has AA, then he wants to get to showdown fairly cheaply himself, losing the minimum if it turns out you aren't bluffing this time.
 
Old
Default
Mon Feb 18, 2013, 05:45 AM
(#12)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
defenitly agree with arty but im really interested how the hand ended :P


Triple Bracelet Winner

 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 07:02 AM
(#13)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by DivorcedDuck View Post
I think an interesting hand between a TAGish regular and me. Reg is known, we have some history, he´s playing good for that stakes, but so far mostly abc and he´s a winning player. he´s multitabling.

stats for villain so far 17/14/4 (VPIP/PFR/AF). sample is around 100 hands so postflop stats aren´t worth that much and they weren´t part of my postflop decisions. postflop decision are based on read. by the history we had i charcterize him as very aggressive in general but not overaggressive.

the picture he should have about me: looking reggish, capable of folding and backplaying, stealing a lot, set mining a lot against tight players, overall not that drawy, positional awareness.

UTG+2: $10.62 (212.4 bb)
MP1: $6.98 (139.6 bb)
MP2: $2.42 (48.4 bb)
MP3: $5.19 (103.8 bb)
CO: $10.63 (212.6 bb)
BTN: $4.55 (91 bb)
SB: $1.88 (37.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $4.93 (98.6 bb)
UTG+1: $2.97 (59.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q T
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.14, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.09

I think that QTs has a good playabilty against a standard TAG. Good blocker and it´s unusal to my previous holdings when calling. Thought about 3 betting but this would be very bluffy and i don´t have that much data to decide wether the bluff itself is profit or not. So I went with the call as I´m sure I can win it often enough even out of position. My image should be good enough to make him believe in a strong passive blind defend range.

Flop: ($0.30) 5 T 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.55, MP1 calls $0.35

The flop is very unlikely to have hit his range. I think I can represent a set and an overpair as well, which was part of my plan so I decided to play it C/R as I was sure of villains c-bet. Villain tanked, used a few seconds of the time bank but finally called.

I think he´s reggish, he´s a TAG but so far he didn´t showed that he´s creative. I don´t expect him to call down with an overpair but to R/F. With a middle pocket he may could call and may be with two overs like AK or AJ. With TT or KK+ I expect him to go broke on flop. I think he´s doing something unusual, because he´s for sure experienced enough to play a set or an overpair his standard way in this spot. for an easy standard decision he doesn´t need the time bank in my eyes, but that´s a soft tell.

Turn: $1.40)
8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP1 raises to $1.98

WOW! Something i didn´t expected to happen to be honest. I tanked... the line looks fishy, but villain isn´t. The 8 shouldn´t change much. I don´t see any hand which could improve to a draw which is still in here. 88 could have called the flop but it´s very close i think. tilt move, a spewy bluff based on his image may be too.

a) do you agree to my line so far?
b) what would you do and what is more important why!?
Hi DivorcedDuck

Interestng discussion here! Personally, if the villain is a reg, then I would fold this hand preflop. You are going to be out of position fo the entire hand. This is a raise from midposition, not from the btn or sb. So, I would give the "reg" credit for having a decent starting hand. You are holding suited gappers.

If I intended on calling preflop, then I would play the hand straight forward as a speculative hand. Either you flop a strong draw or you fold. With speculative hands, flopping a pair far too often results in our having the second best hand.

I agree with Arty, at 5NL, you do not need to get tricky to be profitable. I tend to avoid unclear spots that are getting expensive and prefer to simply take the villain to valuetown with my strong hands postflop.

Either way, let's look closer at the hand. You flop top pair, marginal kicker. Your hand is not a monster. Check-raising is most likely going to get you value owned. All the hands you are beating will fold giving you less value for your hand. While all the hands that are beating you will continue which will cost you money.

I would have check-called the flop. This keeps the pot under control. Moreover, by checking, you may entice the reg to bet the flop in an attempt to regain the initiative in the hand. Also, don't read too much into the time banking. He might have had a hand on another table. He might have been drinking some water. Or he might have been figuring out the best way to get your stack if he happened to flop a set.

On the turn, I would suggest check-folding unless you improve. As you said, the villain is a regular. It is unlikely that he is getting out of line. At worse he has A10, but an overpair or set seem most likely.

As played, you still only have top pair with a marginal kicker facing a villain who seems to play straight forward poker and who has shown strength on every street. I would fold to the raise 100% of the time in this spot.

Again, this looks like a typical leak where we overplay a speculative hand.

I hope this helps!

Roland GTX
 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 08:14 AM
(#14)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
ok, no more response it seems. will tell you what i did, why and i will put the result in a spoiler to keep the door open for later discussions.

villain is no standard NL5 regular. his stats are closer to a loose aggressive player than to a nit but in general he´s still a TAG. he´s profit, he´s selective in agression and he´s aware of position and he makes usage of that.

this makes him a player you have to give some credit. normally a player you should avoid to play. the toughest thing in NLHE is to play a profit loose aggressive style, but it´s also the most profit one. a TAG which has learned alread to loosen up his game a lot in a profit way is tough to find on micros.

villain mostlikely believes that i´m a standard NL5 regular. a standard NL5 regular is thinking but he´s thinking in a very predictible way which is tight abc poker and straight forward most of the time.

MP1 vs BB is a good spot for an attack on a reg. the reason is ranges aren´t that wide and moves are very predictible which makes it easier postflop especially when beeing out of position. in addition i don´t have that much stats on villain as i would need for a more complex postflop plan. it´s the first time i start to exploit this villain and i choosed QTs because it has blocking and drawing potential versus villains range.

the next decision was to 3-bet or just to call. i decided to call. the reasons are that i planned to outplay him postflop and to make usage of my hopefully better postflop play. for that i want to keep villains range wide preflop. a 3-bet would be instant profit mostlikely, villain will fold at least 2/3 of the time against a 3bet of a tight nit but against villains 3-bet calling range my plan doesn´t work so i would have to give up the hand most o fthe time on flop. i have 3betted around 10% over all positions so far, including any 2 broadways to protect my blind and i don´t want to become exploitable on that (i know it´s lame and i should think about 4bet ranges but it makes no sense on micros other to exploit loose 3betting blinds).

so let´s talk about what villain mostlikely will think about my range. if i would be villain and i assume to play against a standard nitty NL5 reg, i would think he either is setmining me with any pocket or he´s trapping. the hand isn´t multiway and a premium hand like AQs+,AKo,JJ+ is very likely to call. also BB showed a lot of 3betting that´s why his range for a call is likely to be polarized to nuts or draws.

my plan postflop is to

a) C/R/F an Ahigh flop with no broadways
b) C/R/F any flop with one broadway high only
c) C/R/F any flop Thigh
d) C/R/S any combo draw
e) C/F any other flop
f) proceed with the above plan on turn by B/F but C/F river when called down on a dry board
g) betsize will be a bit smaller than usually cause the move itself generates a lot of pressure.

this way i should be able to dodge most of the times i´m hard dominated and to maximize my fold equity as i´m representing a set, an overpair or a strong draw. i should raise about 2/3 of the time overall to exploit villains strongly positional oriented play and to push him out of his comfort zone into a tough spot, using the power of well timed aggression and initiative. when faced to that kind of pressure, aggressive players don´t have much experience handling aggression to themself, he mostlikely will go on by playing fit or fold which gives us an easy decision.

so preflop i´m clean i think and we can jump right into the flop action.

Flop: ($0.30) (2 players)

flop is great. it totally missed villains range. i block all but one of the TT combos and a 5 or 3 aren´t in villains range. in addition i have top pair which gives me a boost in value, because it adds some bluff catching potential to my hand. this flop adds perfect to our plan.

i expect villain to c-bet that flop almost 100% of the time, he´s representing a strong range and what is most important(!), from villains point of view it´s very unlikely that i have hit the flop and we are both on flop with our full preflop range. that means he must be thinking that he´s still dominating me at least half of the time in addition his top range has for sure some good blocking potential to my perceived range.

Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.55

i expect to happen:

a) villain reraises with his broke range and i fold to that.
b) villain folds his underpairs.
c) villain will fold his overcards most of the time.
d) villain will maybe fold some better hands from time to time, depending on his broke range.

i expect villain to put me either on a set, an overpair or a bluff.

i realize value if villain folds overcards to the flop which shold be AK and AJ mostlikely and if he folds JJ from time to time which is unlikely but my plan puts a lot of pressure on him. in addition i have a value raise to AJ+.

villain tanked which means he´s not experienced with that kind of pressure or it wasn´t part of his plan for the hand. my action is unusual for the board structure. no flush draw, no straight draw i could have hit, set is unlikely and he´s representing a very strong range compared to mine. so he may smells a bluff, he mostlikely gives me credit for the move or has good pot odds to call with a hand like AK.

if he really puts me on a bluff (semibluff isn´t possible), i expect him to reraise with AJ+ (based on the pot odds he can call to a shove), but to call me down with any overpair or a set of tens. as i´m sure not to have a bluffy image so far, i rule out the aggressive approach, but calling down would be possible and it would be fine for me as it allows me to outdraw him sometimes on later streets, giving me great implieds. if he calls with correct odds he will be in a dilemma on turn as his chance is close to a flip but only when calling flop and(!) turn. calling has some potential against a bluff too cause he´s in a good shape to improve and his calling range has ofc some bluff catching potential.

MP1 calls $0.35

nice, we are down to nuts or nothing and i have initiative.

i think the flop is clean so i proceed to the turn

Turn: ($1.40) (2 players)

a blank. rainbow board, no backdoors, an 8 isn´t in villains range anymore. so i go on with the plan.

Hero bets $0.70, MP1 raises to $1.98

what happened that villain changed his approach on turn from calling to playing back on me and how does he play back on me?

from my expectation the turn is a blank so he can´t be scared by the board. i betted and showed willingness to go to the river which makes no change to his overpairs or top set. villain has to put me on a set, an overpair or a bluff. i have villain down to nuts or nothing.

the nuts isn´t in danger so his raise is burning value and i don´t expect him to be that dumb. so far he never showed tendencies to be spewy or to be overaggressive and i have no reason to believe in a change.

so chances are villain is raising to push out my bluffs in case i make a move and to maximize implieds on a high card on river and he needs those implieds to go on with his AJ+ hands. his bet size is that big that a call is committing me but gives villain the possibility to fold if i shove.

that´s a good and strong move by villain if i´m right. i thought here for a moment about the possibility if villain could have played 88 this way and i think the answer is no but he can make for sure mistakes when be put under pressure but would need some kind of justification on flop and only justification could be he must think i´m bluffing to much which isn´t the case. i calculated the chances. AJ+ or 88. he must have an AJ+ hand most of the time for sure if i´m right and he´s capable of playing that way. if i´m wrong and he shows 88 i´m drawing dead, lose a stack and can be sure i gave him to much credit and my whole plan on him, based on the reads and stats i collected, is totally nonsense.

i go with my plan...

so what to do now? - if i shove, his AJ+ will fold because they are in terrible shape and he must know that. the nuts calls for sure so shoving is isolating myself and would be only profit if villain makes a dumb mistake and calls but i have no reason to hope for a dumb mistake so far. if i call i give away a river card but i can fold to an A,K or J, because i can rule out all pure bluffs here. a Q would give me 2 pair and makes me calling a riverbet but it´s unlikely to happen as it´s only one out if i´m right. so i´m going to call here.

the call is a bit tricky. i normally would expect villain to bet his busted hands from time to time and i would have to call to get the additional value from those river bluffs but i think my call is that strong that the hand is pretty much face up now, which means there is mostlikely no action on river except villain has 88 or the flop comes A,K,Q,J. i can´t bet the river myself for the same reasons i can´t shove the turn.

Hero calls $1.28

i put the result in a spoiler if you like to discuss the hand without being result oriented.

Click to show hidden text


when i pasted the hand i have recognized it was in a rush pool. i should have mentioned that, sorry. rush pools have almost broke down recently and there are no juicy lowstakes rush games anymore. the decrease in traffic on full tilt recently is dramatic. a lot of regs got rush tickets from promotions and there´s no traffic, so players are forced to go down in stakes to maintain and realize the ticket value. for that reasons the player pool should be more reggish, more aggressive and on a higher skill level compared to the regular ring games.

i hope my thought process made sense to you and i´m happy about the comments so far. good luck at the felts!

edit: i have recognized that Roland answered when i was writing this post so pls forgive me the double posting.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 11:05 AM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 09:52 AM
(#15)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
Hi DivorcedDuck

Interestng discussion here! Personally, if the villain is a reg, then I would fold this hand preflop. You are going to be out of position fo the entire hand. This is a raise from midposition, not from the btn or sb. So, I would give the "reg" credit for having a decent starting hand. You are holding suited gappers.
thx for pointing that out. in that point we have simply a different approach. your approach to poker is similar to the one of Arty.

i want to improve my game. improving means that i have to beat the regs cause fish is fish no matter what stakes you play. if i wanted to become a bumhunter i wouldn´t be here. i would just cash in 10k and put my ass on a NL400 HU table and w8 for the fish just like all the other bumhunters do.

so avoiding to play the reg is no option, cause my goal is to reach the midstakes within a year and i don´t want to lose time getting stuck on NL25/50 because i´m a victim to the more aggressive regs. thx

Quote:
If I intended on calling preflop, then I would play the hand straight forward as a speculative hand. Either you flop a strong draw or you fold. With speculative hands, flopping a pair far too often results in our having the second best hand.
that way the hand would´ve had a negative expectation as i´m out of position and i don´t realize any other value than the one i get through hitting my draws. you for sure agree that this has heads up no huge implieds against a regular. so if i call i need a plan to win the hand from time to time without hitting the board. this is a must otherwise, i have to fold pre! the point is that i think villains play is predictable enough to make a move on him and that´s what i wanted to discuss. i can give you good reasons why the same play doesn´t work when villain is in UTG and we´re on BU holding the same hand.

Quote:
I agree with Arty, at 5NL, you do not need to get tricky to be profitable. I tend to avoid unclear spots that are getting expensive and prefer to simply take the villain to valuetown with my strong hands postflop.
so first you suggest to avoid tough spots, now you say NL5 isn´t tough but a sentence later you tell me you try to avoid the spots when things can become potentially tough for the villains. this makes no sense to me. again i don´t see myself as a bumhunter but if ever, a microstakes regular is a fish to me for sure.

i strongly believe that i´m an above average player and also i think i´m not less intelligent than average, so it seems logic to me that tough spots for me are the other way round tough spots for most villains too. That´s exactly what I want to do! I want to push the reg out of his comfort zone right into a tough spot, forcing him to make tough decisions and therefore forcing him into making mistakes which cost him money. that doesn´t work by playing C/C...

just for the books, i opened the topic to discuss how to exploit a regular...

Quote:
Either way, let's look closer at the hand. You flop top pair, marginal kicker. Your hand is not a monster. Check-raising is most likely going to get you value owned. All the hands you are beating will fold giving you less value for your hand. While all the hands that are beating you will continue which will cost you money.
before making such a claim pls describe the range you are talking about. i want to know on what folding range, what calling range and what raising range your assumptions are based. when have done that we will do the math and check if you´re right. pls have a look one post above and you will see that i had a specific plan for the hand an i bet money on that plan that it´s profit and be assured i did the math for that plan. so either you explain to me why it´s not profit or you checkout my explanation why it´s profit but just throwing in a sentence, saying i get value owned but don´t explain why isn´t what i expect by an analyzis.

Quote:
I would have check-called the flop. This keeps the pot under control. Moreover, by checking, you may entice the reg to bet the flop in an attempt to regain the initiative in the hand.
ok, a standard NL5 reg as a base of your assumption gives sense to what you wrote, but how many standard NL5 regs have you played with stats of 17/14/4 (VPIP/PFR/AF), positional awareness, selective well timed aggression and a winrate of more than 10bb/100?


Quote:
Also, don't read too much into the time banking. He might have had a hand on another table. He might have been drinking some water. Or he might have been figuring out the best way to get your stack if he happened to flop a set.
i wrote it´s a soft tell but it wasn´t unexpected which makes it legit mostlikely.

Quote:
On the turn, I would suggest check-folding unless you improve. As you said, the villain is a regular. It is unlikely that he is getting out of line. At worse he has A10, but an overpair or set seem most likely.
why ever should a reg, which are bad in general on NL5 and you assume this reg is bad too, should ever change his plan for the hand on that turn card?

you don´t give an explanation why you should want to play C/F here. i would understand B/F, disagree to C/C but this has at least the advantage of let villain bluff, but what is the advatage of C/F here? there are way more hands in villains range than JJ+ only!

Quote:
As played, you still only have top pair with a marginal kicker facing a villain who seems to play straight forward poker and who has shown strength on every street. I would fold to the raise 100% of the time in this spot.
strength on every street? -

preflop ranges are tight on a full ring, right, but not that tight that his range contains only premiums.

a reg is c-bet almost 100% of the time this flop. that´s no strength. as the board is totally dry he can go on with a lot of draws and bluffs and still has good equity, as he has to put some air in my range too. villain is in spot which appears to a regular as a way-ahead-way-behind situation. what sense does villains move make to you?

Quote:
Again, this looks like a typical leak where we overplay a speculative hand.
the hand wasn´t played speculative. i choosed QTs because of its blocking potential and it has some drawing potential to back it up.

Quote:
I hope this helps!

Roland GTX
tbh. no real help. if you think i went the wrong way it would be helpful if you could explain why and what would be the better way. you gave me an analyzis like i expect for a beginner. your analyzis is based on a picture of a standard NL5 regular. well, i´m no beginner, i´m no standard NL5 regular, i´m no microstakes regular at all and villain was at least a good regular on micros if something like that exists. i already stated that i wouldn´t have been in that hand versus a standard NL5 reg and i would for sure fold the turn to a fish, no doubt about it. the discussion should be about exploiting a good regular. it´s either above your horizon or you don´t have read carefully what i wrote, dunno. pls don´t take this personally.

however, thx for the time you spent to share your thoughts! i don´t agree to your opinion but believe it or not, your answer had a lot of value to me, as Arty and you forced me to tripple check my play and to justify it against you.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 11:11 AM..
 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 12:20 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
First of all this is a long thread with a good discussion! If I missed some things please forgive me.

Quote:
so if i call i need a plan to win the hand from time to time without hitting the board. this is a must otherwise, i have to fold pre!
I agree with your premise and your whole general "plan" in this regard for getting involved preflop. The key thing that jumped out for me in reading your explanation is that you were inflexible in this thought process... you went ahead and tried to execute the plan to win the hand without hitting the board, when you actually hit the board! I think you recognized this in a later post.

Quote:
pls use equilator or pokerstove. give villain a hand range of AT+,88+ and you will see that we´re only a few percentages ahead on flop. as a fact when we substract rake we´re close to a flip and we´re out of position so we need a plan to realize the value.
So Arty did this and we saw vs. his preflop range we are about 60% now. The problem with your plan as I see it (and what others are saying) is that we don't realize this value if we take an action that forces all the hands from which the value derives to fold. If he only continues with TT+, AT vs. our check-raise for instance, our equity vs. that range is 20%. And our equity against the hands that we fold out (88-99, AJ+) is 81%. That is the definition of value owning ourselves.

Quote:
I don´t expect him to call down with an overpair but to R/F
Like Arty, I disagree with this too... assuming he views you as you say, AND he's solid, he is very unlikely to 3b overpairs for the same exact reasons as above. The board is very dry and he shouldn't expect you to take this line with mid strength hands that would be value owning themselves a lot by check-raising, which if that's true then he will view your c/r range as likely polarized to moves and really strong hands. If he raises again, he gets trashed by the strong hands and folds out any moves. Better to give you a chance to spew off on your moves. It's not like you can get a free card, if you check the turn he can still bet.

It's quite possible all of this assumption about the villain and his thought process is in fact over thinking. I totally get what you are saying DD about wanting to improve to beat more sophisticated regs, but you're treating this guy like a 200NL reg when he's not, he's a 5NL player you have 100 hands on.







Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
Old
Default
Tue Feb 19, 2013, 02:33 PM
(#17)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
First of all this is a long thread with a good discussion! If I missed some things please forgive me.

I agree with your premise and your whole general "plan" in this regard for getting involved preflop. The key thing that jumped out for me in reading your explanation is that you were inflexible in this thought process... you went ahead and tried to execute the plan to win the hand without hitting the board, when you actually hit the board! I think you recognized this in a later post.
i focused more on the discussion than on explaining and at some point the discussion seemed to went into an offtopic direction. however you´re right by looking at my descriptions and by looking at the hand in a vacuum.

i missed to write about my motivation to make a move on villain. villain played slightly more aggressive and was slightly looser than i play and because of this i get into less spots heads up with the fish when he´s at my tables and i have not such a big edge on him to compensate this like i would have against most tag-fishes. so my motivation was to change the dynamics here and to use my image for that. the point why i´m caring about making some profit here is that i´m sure i will loose the hand to a fair part of his range (around 25% of the time to be exact) and i don´t want to be spewy. i´m fine with a -ev move here sometimes if this has a positive effect on dynamics, but i think if we enter this discussion too we´ll finally blast the thread.

so you´re right when saying the plan is inflexible at that point as it served more than one purpose. something i have to keep in mind and which is a valid point. against a level 2 thinking reg this works out a few times but i force him to adapt this way. with such a small sample not the best idea i admit.

Quote:
So Arty did this and we saw vs. his preflop range we are about 60% now. The problem with your plan as I see it (and what others are saying) is that we don't realize this value if we take an action that forces all the hands from which the value derives to fold. If he only continues with TT+, AT vs. our check-raise for instance, our equity vs. that range is 20%.
right but my plan never was to play this for stacks most of the time. the 60% are nice but discount the rake and some may be looser openings than standard for a TAG and we are close to a flip. there´s equity in that but not that much and to realize it we often have to play for a lot more chips. so way bigger risk.

in addition i already mentioned to Arty that i have to keep in mind the change in equity when i would hold a slightly stronger hand. something i have to keep in mind.

Quote:
And our equity against the hands that we fold out (88-99, AJ+) is 81%. That is the definition of value owning ourselves.
hmmm, i agree for the equity, but equity isn´t equal to value and i even think there are possibly a few more hands in this range which doens´t change the equity that much but makes it more likely to happen. as said i don´t see him betting those hands that often in such a spot. he basically has the same problem with those hands which i have with my hand. i would assume that his betting frequency with those hands goes down a lot to a blank turn.

Quote:
Like Arty, I disagree with this too... assuming he views you as you say, AND he's solid, he is very unlikely to 3b overpairs for the same exact reasons as above. The board is very dry and he shouldn't expect you to take this line with mid strength hands that would be value owning themselves a lot by check-raising, which if that's true then he will view your c/r range as likely polarized to moves and really strong hands. If he raises again, he gets trashed by the strong hands and folds out any moves. Better to give you a chance to spew off on your moves.
plain and simple right, but i think i get compensation for that by the calls with the AJ+ hands and i already realized the fold equity on flop. if the hand goes BC on the turn i´m done normally. that´s why i keep the bets a bit smaller.

if villain makes a note on me for beeing passive on river i would be happy about it and unlike to a midstakes regular i´m pretty much sure villain wil play fit or fold based on odds and pot odds most of the time when being faced to a C/R.

Quote:
It's not like you can get a free card, if you check the turn he can still bet.
if i play it the other way round, i have to give him a free card for sure and sometimes it will be more than one.

Quote:
It's quite possible all of this assumption about the villain and his thought process is in fact over thinking. I totally get what you are saying DD about wanting to improve to beat more sophisticated regs, but you're treating this guy like a 200NL reg when he's not, he's a 5NL player you have 100 hands on.
overthinking? - yes for sure possible, that´s why i´m here and on that point i got a lot of input. i´m treating him like a NL200 guy? - haha, if this would have been NL200 i would have shoved the turn and buy a lobster of his stack.

but basically that´s the point of my concerns and why i posted the hand. it´s either me or the games have turned a lot. i have played some hands NL10 now and the full ring felt like NL50 in the pre black friday era. however, you´re right about the small sample. when i have 100 hands of a player i start playing back on his preflop tendencies. when i have at least 500 hands i start to play back on his postflop tendencies and below 1k hands i don´t even think about exploiting 3bet tendencies. a reggish looking player with those stats was something i don´t expected to see on micros but from my experience those are the players i think which needs attentiona and from what i have learned in the past it´s worth the risk to backplay on them early because they lower your winrate. something a standard NL5 tag fish normally doesn´t do.

so to sum it up, i overplayed the hand in general according to the stakes and to the sample, but got lucky as villain was obvious either a total retard or really a good thinking player.

This answered me a lot of questions. Thank you very much Dave!

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 03:11 PM..
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com