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5NL - to donk bet turn or c/c?

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5NL - to donk bet turn or c/c? - Sun Feb 17, 2013, 10:58 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain is 18/16/5 (751 hands)
BTN Steal 59%
Fold 3bet 92%

Flop Cbet 68%, Turn Cbet 30%
Flop Agg Freq 54%, Turn Agg Freq 24%

WTSD 35%

Clearly I have a hand that is worth playing this guy against his stealing range and there is no point to 3bet since he is folding 92% of the time to 3bets.

FLOP: I am very happy with my TP hand, and I think we are good most of the time here.

TURN: Since villain's turn aggression is low, I expect him to check back most of his hands when the turn does not bring a barreling opportunity and also he could be checking back for pot control with Kx type of hands. So I decide to donk bet here to extract value from Kx hands that would otherwise pot control and protect from Ax type of hands. Also the turn brings a backdoor FD and st8 draw now. What do you think of my turn line and reasoning?

RIVER: with a pot sized left to bet, what would you do on this river card? I bet hoping to get called by a hand like KT/KJ

 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 11:43 AM
(#2)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Villain is 18/16/5 (751 hands)
BTN Steal 59%
Fold 3bet 92%

Flop Cbet 68%, Turn Cbet 30%
Flop Agg Freq 54%, Turn Agg Freq 24%

WTSD 35%

Clearly I have a hand that is worth playing this guy against his stealing range and there is no point to 3bet since he is folding 92% of the time to 3bets.
stoped reading here... the point which makes this a 100% 3bet is... tataaa

Flop Cbet 68%
Flop Agg Freq 54%

villain is selective in continuation betting and be asured without knowing the positional stats i bet he´s less aggressive when out of position and a cold call pre by a reg is looking stronger in blind battle as a 3bet would do as it´s looking trappy. i bet most of the time villain will go on playing fit or fold at latest on turn. i don´t see him c-betting that often without at least an overcard on a flop to a passive defend. the decrease in aggression to later streets is an indicator too.

KQs is a good hand to play in position and it performs very well in position against an 8% range of villain in case your 3bet gets called.

as there´s mostlikely no additional value in calling the decision would be to bet in my eyes. in additon it adds to your 3bet and aggression values and is good for your table image.

Quote:
FLOP: I am very happy with my TP hand, and I think we are good most of the time here.
i agree but why don´t you bet?

Quote:
TURN: Since villain's turn aggression is low, I expect him to check back most of his hands when the turn does not bring a barreling opportunity and also he could be checking back for pot control with Kx type of hands. So I decide to donk bet here to extract value from Kx hands that would otherwise pot control and protect from Ax type of hands. Also the turn brings a backdoor FD and st8 draw now. What do you think of my turn line and reasoning?
why dind´t you raised the flop? - if you dont´expect villain to give you action on turn there´s no reason not to bet/raise the flop!

beside that the chance villain bets turn is 50:50. as the board isn´t scary anyway why not give him the chance to hit a rivercard and go on with your passive line?

betting is isolating yourself but checking gives you 50% of the time the advantage of keeping the range wide with only a small risk. mostlikely villain has 3 outs to beat you if ever so no need for protection against Ax!

Quote:
RIVER: with a pot sized left to bet, what would you do on this river card? I bet hoping to get called by a hand like KT/KJ
as played, mostlikely yes.

tbh. i don´t like that passive approach. if i see that at my tables i bet that most of the time it´s some mediocre garbage and make a note to tighten up a bit and bet the hell out of those guys with TPTK or better. in addition if i know you´re that passive the donk on turn is combined with your flop call a good indicator to messure your hand strength.
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 12:33 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Geo,

I like how you played the hand, DD suggests betting the flop but I think that their is very little point in donking as you allow the BTN to fold a lot of worse hand he would otherwise bet given that his cbet% is fairly high. Alternatively you could raise but likewise I think this is bad as you're not likely to get called by worse hands against this villain so c/c is good imo.OTT I think your reasoning for donking is good as it gets you value from worse K's that would otherwise check behind.

However OTR I would make you bet smaller of around half pot. A smaller bet will get calls from the many Kx hands in his range whereas your bet size will get called by fewer Kx combinations but many more K's up combos and sets. He is seldom raising you as a bluff OTR so although you will be laying yourself unbelievable odds if he was to shove over a smaller bet I think it would be an easy fold as his bluffing frequency is close to zero (if not actually zero).

Oliver


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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 12:43 PM
(#4)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
DD suggests betting the flop
before discussing the other things you mentioned, and i think you failed in your analyzis and would like to discuss it, pls quote where i suggested to bet the flop!
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 02:32 PM
(#5)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
hmmm, unfortunately no quick repsonse, so i will point out now the things i think which are important to mention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
Hi Geo,

I like how you played the hand, DD suggests betting the flop but I think that their is very little point in donking as you allow the BTN to fold a lot of worse hand he would otherwise bet given that his cbet% is fairly high.
well, i never wrote bet the flop! there are question marks behind the two times i mentioned the flop and means i asked a question! - the reason why i asked was that i think hero did things out of the wrong reasons and i wanted him to reflect it.

to explain this a little bit more in depth. hero justified the preflop call by the "high cbet frequency". as a fact the cbet frequency of villain isn´t high but very close to the game theoretical optimum which makes it almost unexploitable.

he gave almost no reasoning for his play on flop, but what he told us is that villain only goes on with the hand on turn when he has something. as hero has a strong hand the question is to realize value right now or not. hero answered it by the low chance of getting action on turn.

on turn hero told us it´s good to donk because of the low villains aggression.

so villains aggression is the reason for beeing aggressive and for beeing passive in the same gameplan. i think this is an antagonism or at least an inconsistency in heros thought process.

every time you change your line from passive to aggressive you give away valueable information to villain as he has to answer only a simple question what the reason may be is (100% of the time the reason lies on the board) and he can exploit it or have at least an easy decision.

Quote:
Alternatively you could raise but likewise I think this is bad as you're not likely to get called by worse hands against this villain so c/c is good imo.
wow... this is plain and simple wrong.

villain shows exactly 3 leaks from the stats we have and stats are 750 hands so we have a good knowledge about the thigns we´re talking about.

1. villain has a way to high stealing frequency
2. villain plays fit or fold on turn
3. villain overvalues a lot of hands and has therefore a to high went to showdown value

i don´t see why exploiting this leaks should be bad in any way but it would be cool if you could give us some insight to this!

Quote:
OTT I think your reasoning for donking is good as it gets you value from worse K's that would otherwise check behind.

However OTR I would make you bet smaller of around half pot. A smaller bet will get calls from the many Kx hands in his range whereas your bet size will get called by fewer Kx combinations but many more K's up combos and sets. He is seldom raising you as a bluff OTR so although you will be laying yourself unbelievable odds if he was to shove over a smaller bet I think it would be an easy fold as his bluffing frequency is close to zero (if not actually zero).
a) exploit villains preflop tendencies by 3betting and make profit.
b) exploit villains bad postflop play by c-betting flop. 3/4 of the time you get a fold which is instant profit, sometimes you get a raise and fold to it and sometimes you get a call and those are the hands which call you down to the river...
c) ... and which we want to exploit because villain goes way to light to showdown.

instead of doing this our hero tried to backplay on the only thing in villains game which is almost unexploitable and close to be perfect - the flop c-betting of 68%. i don´t understand why you like it.

Quote:
Oliver
Oliver is my second real name so you get a for that. hope my plan now makes sense to you. you´re welcome to question it!

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 03:03 PM..
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 03:49 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
While many players adopt the maxim "aggression leads to profit", there are a quite a few situations where a passive line leads to more value. This hand is one of them, I think.

I'm not a big fan of 3-betting hands that flop well against weak ranges, so flatting pre is great.
I'm also not a fan of donking the flop or turn, although I like your reasoning in this particular situation.
I'd prefer to play this really passively, check-calling the flop and seeing if villain bets the turn (in which case I check-call again).
If the turn goes check-check, then you can lead the river, but fairly small. You want to get looked up by weaker kings and hands like JJ, TT and 88.

When villain is stealing with a wide/weak range, a hand like TPGK is happy to get two smallish streets of value. Your line achieved that. A small bet on the river might even have got three streets.
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 04:11 PM
(#7)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
While many players adopt the maxim "aggression leads to profit", there are a quite a few situations where a passive line leads to more value. This hand is one of them, I think.
pls describe why when you make assumptions. thx

Quote:
I'm not a big fan of 3-betting hands that flop well against weak ranges, so flatting pre is great. I'm also not a fan of donking the flop or turn, although I like your reasoning in this particular situation.
being a fan or not is no justification. poker by the gut is for sure not what we wanna do.

Quote:
I'd prefer to play this really passively, check-calling the flop and seeing if villain bets the turn (in which case I check-call again).
we know for sure that villain plays the turn fit or fold. you maximize villains profit that way, you know?

Quote:
If the turn goes check-check, then you can lead the river, but fairly small. You want to get looked up by weaker kings and hands like JJ, TT and 88.
if the turn goes C/C the only thing hero shouldn´t even think about, when taking the passive approach, is leading small the river. it will push out bluffs and taking away additional value of getting paid by worse hands because it´s adding a call to their options.

Quote:
When villain is stealing with a wide/weak range, a hand like TPGK is happy to get two smallish streets of value. Your line achieved that. A small bet on the river might even have got three streets.
wow, justifying a preflop decision by the fact that hero hit the flop. are you serious about that?
 
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Sun Feb 17, 2013, 06:45 PM
(#8)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
heey guys i think calling pre flop is good and 3 betting is OK aswell in my oppinion. i like the check call on the flop. but only why are you donking the turn this look amazingly strong, i dont think anybody is going to call there with a hand like 88 the only hand you wil get more vallue form is a hand like K rag or a9.. i would definatly check call the turn and when it goes c/c you can make like 3/4 pot which would look really bluffy and that bet he might call with a hand like 88-qq and any K maybe a 9.
the betsizing on the river is alright but i watching this hand he makes me believe that he has a good hand at leas k10 up to sets. i dont think he ever hit his card on the river so i dont think he has a str8.
hope this helps


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Mon Feb 18, 2013, 09:59 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi guys,

Nice discussion here!

I will add an interesting twist to the preflop discussion. I get what Geo and Arty are saying about flatting with KQs here in that it plays well against a wide range, flops in a way that dominates him some of the time, and 3-betting folds out hands like KJ etc that we dominate... all true and flatting for these reasons have merit. It's often how I would proceed with KQs agains more baseline stats.

So that being said, I would probably have 3-bet him here. Why, if all that stuff above is true? Well, it has little to do with "here" per say. When I have a villain on the button playing 18/16 Stl59 and F3B92, I am going to be 3-betting his button opens like my raise button is stuck. IF I were going to have a flatting range, KQs would be in it, but against these extreme stats I probably don't have much of a flatting range. At least not until he adjusts and backs off stealing some or starts defending his button raises a bit more than "nit" style.

Post flop I like the check-call/bet line here. Duck has a very nice point that if we think he's going to give up on the turn a lot anyway then there's value in denying him even seeing the turn with a raise, but I think he will give up the turn less often than we think. The check-call/bet line is fairly uncommon and villains don't know how to react to it... they're not used to it. He is going to say "how did the turn card improve you?" and conclude if you had a monster you would check-raise, so you may have picked up one of the many draws the turn card has brought. We will get floated (and maybe even raised) by any reasonable showdown value... quite a few hands of which would check back the turn. And they will call a modest river bet as well, giving us 3 streets from the widest possible range imo.

As played about .65c on the river looks good, half the pot may even be too much to be looked up super light.


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Tue Feb 19, 2013, 05:37 AM
(#10)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Dave,

Thanks for your reply.
Obviously there are plenty of good points mentioned. So I guess there is more than one way to skin a cat!

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
When I have a villain on the button playing 18/16 Stl59 and F3B92, I am going to be 3-betting his button opens like my raise button is stuck.
So what you are trying to say is that you'd be happy to take the small more certain win preflop rather than take a chance to win/lose a larger pot postflop?

In that sense, I guess you would be 3betting AA in this case?


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
As played about .65c on the river looks good, half the pot may even be too much to be looked up super light.
b/f?

I did get called by AK (how sick is that) looks like I value owned myself there huh?
 

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