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5NL - c/r-ed with set

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5NL - c/r-ed with set - Tue Feb 19, 2013, 08:35 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain 14/10/3 (110 hands)
FSteal 77%
3bet 3%

What do you range our opponent? and how would you proceed?

 
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Tue Feb 19, 2013, 01:33 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi Geo,

Prediction! You shipped, ran into JJ or T8s, and are questioning your line.


Your line is fine. Put him all in on the turn.

A 3% 3b is JJ+ and AK but over this small a sample size this stat is not reliable anyway so we can't assume JJ's are not in his flatting range, or even a combo of AA he's getting cute with pre for that matter.

T8s would not be in a 14% calling range but again, small sample makes this possible as it's close enough. In which case he can also take this line with J9s (hearts are left). He can have 44 or 77. He can be committing himself with QQ that he chose not to 3b pre. And he can be making a strong semi-bluff move with some big draw (QcTc/KcQc/AcTc for example). In short, we are at the top of our range, there are only 2 hands ahead of us (JJ/T8s) which he's unlikely to even have all the combos of given the preflop call, and there are plenty of worse hands he could have just committed himself with.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 01:41 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 19, 2013, 02:34 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Geo,

Prediction! You shipped, ran into JJ...
 

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