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TP + 3rd pair. Bet river for value?

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TP + 3rd pair. Bet river for value? - Tue Feb 19, 2013, 09:22 AM
(#1)
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214


Villain 1: 18/15/6 (220 hands)
Villain 2: unknown

First of all. Is it ok to call KJo in the BB when the SB also enters the pot by calling the BU raise? I guess the BU raise could definitely be a steal as his BU raising range will probably be a bit wider than 15 (20 maybe?) So calling hist raise will probably be +EV, but what if an unknown SB enters the pot by just calling this raise? Didn't seem very strong to me so I decided to call.

I flop a decent flop with a K on the board and no A. The SB bets and I decided to call as raising would probably just fold worse hands and keep better (e.g. sets) in the hand. The BU folds.

The turn is again a nice card for me. I have top two pair and the SB checks. This could be because he want to trap (but most 2NL players don't trap that much) or because he isn't sure if he has the best hand so decides to play some pot control. I put in a decent raise and he calls.

The Q shows up on the river and the SB checks again. I didn't know what to do here. Do we want to place a value bet? I think so, but as I wasn't sure I just checked behind. What could he have that we beat? What could he have with playing this line?
 
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Tue Feb 19, 2013, 02:49 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Iggy,


Not really liking the flat call here, our hand plays too weakly OOP in a 3 way pot, although we a have good relative position. Also I have no idea how wide the button is... with 220 hands I would be reviewing his button steal %. If it doesn't vary much from his regular numbers then just fold, and if he's stealing wildly then this could be a nice spot for a squeeze.

Flop is interesting, SB donks out which is usually (often) a moderate 1 pair hand or a draw, but in this case the board is dry so there's no draws other than gutters. I would expect him to show up with a weaker king or a 9 a lot in this spot (and sometimes KQ or AK, given that he's unknown it's possible). I definitely prefer flat calling here. With no draws it should be clear you have some sort of made hand, and if the preflop raiser pops the flop I think you can pretty comfortably fold at that point.

Then we get a trifecta of good news... PFR folds, turn hits us, SB checks. I am definitely value betting the turn but would bet bigger, give him a full pt sized bet here imo. He seems like a fish. If he just has a 9 he'll probably fold to your bet size anyway, but if he's got Kx he's going to call the bigger bet, so extract away.

River I think checking is fine... value betting here would be really thin, as if the Q doesn't improve him then it probably scares him, harder to get called by Kx now, and hands like Q9 which might crying call us may not have even stuck around for the turn bet. If the villain was a big station I'd bet for thin value here but readless checking down is fine.


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Tue Feb 19, 2013, 02:59 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I think you could have squeezed out a (small, < 1/2 pot) thin value bet on river. Appears to be little risk of the SB check-raising river.
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 12:11 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I think you could have squeezed out a (small, < 1/2 pot) thin value bet on river. Appears to be little risk of the SB check-raising river.
For this to be profitable, we need to be good more than 50% of the time we get called. What hands are in his range after the turn, that will call a river bet (or raise, although I agree that seems like a small risk). How often are we good, and how often are we not good when he doesn't fold to a bet?


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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 12:58 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
For this to be profitable, we need to be good more than 50% of the time we get called. What hands are in his range after the turn, that will call a river bet (or raise, although I agree that seems like a small risk). How often are we good, and how often are we not good when he doesn't fold to a bet?
Well, with no reads on villain two we can base the decision on the major signals given of player type. Short stacked, calls OOP, calls flop, calls turn. Checks river. Villain already looks passive/fishy. That is the major reason why I would expect a c/r on river only for value (straight). He may call with KQ. I'm not really considering 44 because even a passive player would *likely* raise the flop or turn with that. A passive/fishy player could call us down with worse two pairs. He could call with worse top pair, but *usually* I think even this villain is folding it to a standard value bet.

Against what we saw from this villain getting to river, I think we are probably behind a little more than 50% of the time. That is mostly from assuming villain doesn't call OOP preflop with hands as bad as K3o... That is why I think a small value bet is OK, like $.20 - $.30. If sized right I don't see how it could be worse EV than checking. We put our villain to another decision on a scary board, possibly squeezing out some extra thin value from a 1 pair hand like Kx.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Wed Feb 20, 2013 at 05:55 PM.. Reason: typos
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 11:32 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
I think it's maybe too thin. I agree about being called by worse 2 pairs from this villain, and that would make it profitable if there are enough 2 pair combos he can have. But I can't think of any. K9 wouldn't donk bet the flop generally. J9 wouldn't check the turn generally (as played), and the rest of the worse 2 pair combos include a Q, I guess Q9 and QJ. idk, it seems unlikely to me. I'm a bit torn because I agree with your read on the "unknown" villain based on what we do see, but I'm a notorious thin value bettor on the river and am still finding this one quite thin.


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Thu Feb 21, 2013, 01:47 AM
(#7)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Yeah I was a bit too optimistic about the two pairs being part of his range. Most don't make much sense considering the line villain took.
 

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