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10nl Zoom - AJo vs aggressive reg

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10nl Zoom - AJo vs aggressive reg - Wed Feb 20, 2013, 01:21 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
The villain is a 2 tabling reg, I've seen him a few times but since I only stepped up to 10nl recently I only have 66 hands on him. He is playing 19/16 and has an AF of 12.0 with an Afq of 50%. His F3B is 67 but is only for a 3 hand sample.



Preflop I call as I'm in postion and hold a hand that can flop a decent TP hand that should play well against his range. Would 3 betting ever be a consideration here given that he is very aggressive postflop?

The flop comes down paired and J high which at first glance seems good for me, however he then pots into me! I was slightly concerned about this bet sizing as it seemed quite strong, however I thought he might be doing it to discourage me from raising him of his hand as the board was paired. This made me think he had a medium strength pair such as QJ or TT, although I did not rule out over pairs completely.

I called and the turn was a brick, he then leads very big again, this actually made me think a medium strength pair was less likely as he surely would make a bet of this size twice with that type of hand.

I decided to call which I feel could be a mistake, he is repping an overpair pretty hard and unless he slows down on the river I'm not likely to see a showdown so should I have just folded?

When the river threw up another pair on the board and he barelled a third time, again for a big size I think it's definately time to fold, right?

Thanks for any help

Oliver


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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 02:08 PM
(#2)
Guido-bomb's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 545
Hi Oliver,

I agree with you, in my experience(that is not much) that big of a cbet is a lot of times representing an overpair to the board, i'd feel uncomfortable calling. Once the turn blanks, and he fires big im folding here, being that you called, i think the river is always a fold to another big bet.

Hope it helps
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 03:22 PM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
things to consider when discussing a hand...

1) Overall Gameplan
2) Educated Guess
3) Statistical Evidence
4) Empirical Evidence

how to discuss a hand...

check 1)-4), evaluate the information and think through the hand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
The villain is a 2 tabling reg, I've seen him a few times but since I only stepped up to 10nl recently I only have 66 hands on him. He is playing 19/16 and has an AF of 12.0 with an Afq of 50%. His F3B is 67 but is only for a 3 hand sample.
the point that villain plays 2 tables is no evidence for anything. i would mark him as a reg if he plays >4 of zoom. >6 tables of normal ring games. but what does reg mean? - a reg is playing a lot of hands. the only assumption you can make at NL10 based on that is a reg mostlikely has some consistency in his actions.

66 hands is no sample. the statistical error for this samplesize should be above 15% for the preflop numbers so the numbers you have aren´t worth that much. as a rule of thump you can go with 100 hands for preflop tendencies, 500 hands for postflop tendencies and a good preflop knowledge, 1k hands for 3bet tendencies and 1.5k hands means you have enough statistical evidence to mak a rough analyziz of villains gameplan.

a very good example is the AF of 12. the number is way to high. even a maniac can´t maintain such a high AF on the longrun. a typicall AF for a maniac is 6-8. numbers that high are an indicator for way to less data.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
Preflop I call as I'm in postion and hold a hand that can flop a decent TP hand that should play well against his range. Would 3 betting ever be a consideration here given that he is very aggressive postflop?
first of all you made a decision based on air and now you ask for advise. my advise is without statistical evidence and without empirical evidence you should stik to your overall gameplan. in my general gameplan AJo is a 3bet against a midstacker and a call against a big stack. when deepstacked it´s a 3bet too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
The flop comes down paired and J high which at first glance seems good for me, however he then pots into me! I was slightly concerned about this bet sizing as it seemed quite strong, however I thought he might be doing it to discourage me from raising him of his hand as the board was paired. This made me think he had a medium strength pair such as QJ or TT, although I did not rule out over pairs completely.
it´s NL10 and bet sizing is far from being perfect. however, i have seen a lot of players doing this and in my books it´s mostly a value bet. i don´t like to call it because you have TPTK and villain can c-bet a lot of hands on that board. i personally like to c-bet big those boards as it´s unlikely for villain to have hit and so it´s most of the time a value bet to me even as it´s basically a bluff but i don´t think a standard NL10 players is doing this for that reason. the probem is when you call you have to call a blank turn too without information, without initiative without putting pressure on villain. this way the turn becomes a guessing game and depending on the board the river may be too. against an overpair you give away more value by calling down than you would by R/F.

so i vote for R/F but a call is good too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I called and the turn was a brick, he then leads very big again, this actually made me think a medium strength pair was less likely as he surely would make a bet of this size twice with that type of hand.
you have no information, you have no read you do nothing to get the initiative or to get some information.

basically it´s the same situation you faced on flop and your decision is the same. i tell you the dilemma will be same on river with another blank...

as played R/F.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I decided to call which I feel could be a mistake, he is repping an overpair pretty hard and unless he slows down on the river I'm not likely to see a showdown so should I have just folded?
you entered the hand by telling us villain is mostlikely overaggressive. this conclusion is based on stats. your plan for the hand based on this information. i already told you what i think about the quality of the information but why do you reevaluate now? - if your assumption are right the hand so far played like expected and villain is owning himself most of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
When the river threw up another pair on the board and he barelled a third time, again for a big size I think it's definately time to fold, right?
hehe, that´s exactly why i always bet the split.

based on your plan for the hand you have a call.

tbh. we know nothing. i can make a guess and the guess would be it´s either a reg betting the split, a bad player overvalueing his pocket or a maniac on tilt bluffing 3 barrels. you have to win this more than ones out of three times and i don´t think you will do and which is more important you have no information to justify the call.

so as played i fold but i´m not you and to stick to a plan just to learn from it and especially to learn from mistakes is a justification.

what can we learn of this hand?

- there´s no statistical evidence without a decent sample size
- when you try to exploit based on stats which are worth nothing you will get into spots where you are lost because the action very often doesn´t fit your expectation
- empiric evidence is worth more than statistical evidence
- playing your overall game plan as long as you have no base for exploits gives you the chance to collect valuable information when things don´t run like expected against a standard player.
- bet size is a very good tell many times but without empirical evidence tells are worth nothing.
- if you miss one of the 4 points i mentioned on top your analyziz is worth nothing mostlikely.

good luck at the felts

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Wed Feb 20, 2013 at 04:11 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 05:35 PM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I read all of your above post DD and I think some of what you say is true, however I would say that in a game of incomplete information having some information is better than no information at all. The fact that he plays 2 tables suggests to me that he is not the average fish which is 'some information'. His stats although over a small sample are a little more information. Although the sample is small such a high AF and Afq suggest he is an aggressive postflop player imo.

You suggest R/F the flop but I would like to know if R/F the flop is best option, what hands that are worse do you think will call a raise OTF?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DivorcedDuck View Post

tbh. we know nothing. i can make a guess and the guess would be it´s either a reg betting the split, a bad player overvalueing his pocket or a maniac on tilt bluffing 3 barrels. you have to win this more than ones out of three times and i don´t think you will do and which is more important you have no information to justify the call.

so as played i fold but i´m not you and to stick to a plan just to learn from it and especially to learn from mistakes is a justification.
Also in the above quote you range the villain to have 3 possible holdings. We win against two and split with one. However you then go on to justify a fold.... I agree it's a fold but if you believe that to be his range then how can you justify folding. Makes no sense to me


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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 07:35 PM
(#5)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I read all of your above post DD and I think some of what you say is true, however I would say that in a game of incomplete information having some information is better than no information at all. The fact that he plays 2 tables suggests to me that he is not the average fish which is 'some information'.


2 tables isn´t tough to play and for sure even a recreational player has enough time when playing only two tables to make an individual decision, so how do you plan to use that information?

i know that poker is a game of incomplete information but information is only valuable when it´s usefull...

edit: i really don´t get this point and just out of curiosity i opened a zoom pool and sorted the players by entries. from color coding and i do it very excessive i can´t see any proof for your thesis. the amount of players playing 2 tables is only half as much as the amount of players plaing only a single table but the average quality of the players isn´t better. i did the same with a rush pool and i came to the same result. and yes i have enough data about the stakes we´re talking.

only a few players seem to play 3 tables and almost the same amount of players are on 4 entries as the ones with 2 entries. about the ones with 4 entries i can tell you that almost all color coding i´ve done is about bad nitty regulars.

Quote:
His stats although over a small sample are a little more information. Although the sample is small such a high AF and Afq suggest he is an aggressive postflop player imo.
especially the postflop stats need by far more hands to be a serious indicator for tendencies.

however, you played 66 hands on that guy. the bet size could be a strong tell. normally you should be able to tell us at least something about that point! Have you seen this before or was it the first time? - reads can be that you have seen unusual things but the absence of unusual things can be a read too and this is some empirical proof which is more valuable than the stats you have collected so far.

as long as you don´t have such information or you don´t provide it, i can´t incorporate it into my analyzis and so my advise can be only to find it out or to fold and let someone else find it out. when it´s about the point to find it out, i go with the cheapest way. as long as you don´t know how someone is playing you can´t play him max ev at all so a debate about the ev makes no sense here.

Quote:
You suggest R/F the flop but I would like to know if R/F the flop is best option, what hands that are worse do you think will call a raise OTF?
it´s not about the worse hands. what makes me suspicious is the same what makes you suspicious... the bet size. from my experience the bet size is very often a tell. but a tell for what? - could be a bluff, could be a strong hand... we don´t know. one thing i can tell you is, that when you get a big donk on flop you mostlikely get a big donk on turn too. when you face a big donk on turn, it should be a sign for you to reevaluate.

the point in playing R/F is that it´s as expensive as calling two times but it has some fold equity and you get an information which is valuable. in case you get raised you will know you´re beat but you now know that the betsize indeed is a tell and you know it´s a tell for a strong hand. in addition the faold makes you looking bluffable which has some positive future ev too. if you get a call it´s very likely to get a free river card and villain may will bluff the river.

it´s an alternative to the call. i agreed that a call is fine too on flop.

on turn you have to make a decision. if villain is bluffing it´s unlikely that he will fire a 3rd barrel and you have a hard time to call a river Q+ as well a calling a blank, because call turn makes you bluffable to overcards and a 3rd barrel to a blank mostlikely indicates a strong made hand.

Quote:
Also in the above quote you range the villain to have 3 possible holdings. We win against two and split with one. However you then go on to justify a fold.... I agree it's a fold but if you believe that to be his range then how can you justify folding. Makes no sense to me
from my experience 3 streets of value 3/4 pot or pot is a strong made hand most of the time when it comes from a regular or standard NL10 player. that´s why i would fold. the point is, if you´re right and villain is that overaggressive like you describe him, but you based this on the stats and from knowledge you don´t have enough hands to base this on stats, the correct play would be to call him.

my guess is that it´s one of three possibilites i mentioned. to decide about the quantity i don´t have enough data and so i go with my experience and the pot odds. it´s an educated guess but no more. you seem to think i believe that the chances for any of the three possibilites is equal but that´s not the case based on my experience and some combinatory as the you block a huge part of the hands i expect to bluff the river.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Wed Feb 20, 2013 at 08:15 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 08:08 PM
(#6)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I would fold the turn. The end .
 
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Wed Feb 20, 2013, 08:19 PM
(#7)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
I would fold the turn. The end .
end the hand on flop or be out on turn would be standard, yes.
 
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Thu Feb 21, 2013, 08:22 AM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
In a full ring game, (nit alert!) I'm folding AJo pre-flop to a raise by a reg.
In 6 max games, especially if you're deep, it's probably a 3-bet against this player in this position.
As played, you probably have to fold the flop, unless this guy always pots it when he whiffs. (On a board this dry, a more typical c-bet would be smaller, so I expect him to have a strong made hand).
 

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