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Was I too aggressive??

Old
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Was I too aggressive?? - Wed Nov 20, 2002, 10:56 AM
(#1)
Deleted user
I posted this on another forum but I would like to get fellow PSOers opinions.

CH

Playing at FX Tuesday night Tourn. Final Table. 6 people left. 300/600. I have 2000 chips after posting BB. (2nd smallest stack) I have gotten crappy cards since the we started.

I get Jd3h, UTG limps in. (7K+ in chips)I am pretty sure that he has big pair as he did the same play with Kings two hands ago.

Everyone folds, Flop is J T 5 all hearts. I bet all in and tell him he's big pair is in trouble. (he thinks about it for a while and calls) I figure that I might have 14 outs (although I am not sure if my heart is any good).

I get no help from the next two cards and he's black QQ stand up.

Good move or was I on tilt from being blinded out.
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 11:01 AM
(#2)
Deleted user
I am amazed you were able to read an UTG limp as a big pair
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 11:25 AM
(#3)
Deleted user
Looks fair enought to me -
1. You might well be ahead
2. If you're behind you have some outs
3. He might fold even if he's ahead

The payout structure could come into it, I suppose .

cheers
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 12:05 PM
(#4)
Deleted user


Ham,

I think there are many hands to look for better than J,3h with Jh,Th,5h flop.

You read him correctly for big pair (but you closed your eyes and bet the flop). Top pair, no kicker, second worst heart flush draw; how bad does it have to be to dump a looser hand :idea: Only thing you could beat was a hand you ruled out by putting him on big pair.

Playing at FX Tuesday night Tourn. Final Table. 6 people left. 300/600. I have 2000 chips after posting BB. (2nd smallest stack) I have gotten crappy cards since the we started.

Quote:
I get Jd3h, UTG limps in. (7K+ in chips)I am pretty sure that he has big pair as he did the same play with Kings two hands ago.

Everyone folds, Flop is J T 5 all hearts. I bet all in and tell him he's big pair is in trouble. (he thinks about it for a while and calls) I figure that I might have 14 outs (although I am not sure if my heart is any good).
You bet "give-up" chips.



You were on tilt BIG time. He has you covered with 7K+
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 01:50 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
I agree with your play 100%. All-in for sure. I am not good enough to put someone on QQ, KK or AA after player limping, then checking. You are short-stacked enough that I definitely put them in and come what may. Even if they have big pair you still have outs with 2 Jacks, and 3 sixes, plus chance with flush. You cannot give free card, and not enough chips to not be pot-committed no matter what your bet. You have only 20 hands left to see after this one.

Let it rip!
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 02:37 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
Ham, I'm with Buschman here.

You read him for a big pair (great read on that player, by the way!), then shoved all-in with top pair/bad kicker/J high flush draw(your 3 comtributing the smallest piece), then told him "your big pair is in trouble". This leads me to the analysis: "he's saying he's got me beat, but is he saying that cause he doesn't have me beat and wants me to fold; or is he saying that cause he wants me to think that and call?"

Although you do have 14 outs (JJ,333,9hearts) you really can't be sure at all about the 9hearts. So, if you trust your read, you are "hoping" one of his pair isn't a heart. Cause if it is, he's calling. To my way of thinking, you have 5 sure outs and 9 "hope outs". Looking at it that way, and the fact you've still got 3&1/3 BB left, I would have checked again and seen the next card. I think you did exactly what the other player wanted.

On-line, this play is something i see a lot of: someone will try to push someone off a big hand by betting all-in with a flush/str8t draw. Live, don't see it much.

Interestingly, you started off our post by saying "I have gotten crappy cards since the we started", yet amazingly enough you were in 6th place!?!?!?!.....Tremendous accomplishment!!!!! If you can do that with crap cards, wait a bit for something more for the all-in. I would think you were on tilt a bit.
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 03:09 PM
(#7)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Did you have any reason to expect this player to laydown an overpair?

Against an overpair your baby flush draw is only 50:50 to win if it hits so your discounted outs are down from 15 to ~9. If no antes, then the pot was $1500 giving you 35:20 (or 1.75:1) odds if you are called. Since 1.75:1 is close to your odds of winning, so I cannot say it was a wrong play. It appears to be very close to zero EV (assuming your opponent won't laydown an overpair) however, and those situations should be avoided in tournaments.

With the possibility of 3 more circuits (depending on the next blind increase) you are likely to get a better deal before you blind out.
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 05:42 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
Yeah folks - but a lot of this analysis depends on the correctness of the magical "read" that the limper had an overpair to the flop. It might not be so. He might have AQ or 77 or whatever....

And if they have an overpair, the limper has to reckon with the fact that they limped and could be facing anything from the BB, such as JT,J5,T5, or a junk made flush, or an A:h:5:c: or similar...

Also, when it comes to getting very short-stacked, people count the hands left to destruction as though that final BB had much meaning. When it gets to that stage you're up against several much bigger stacks that can 'conspire' to eliminate you with multiple calls and check-downs. Seems to me that a move has to be made before that crisis point, just to get competitive again.

I'd have to say that CannedHam might have done better by avoiding the 'verbals'. To me, that suggested a bluff or semi-bluff. With a hand that is beating an overpair I'd guess silence will most likely induce a fold (which is what we really want here, no?)

imo :wink:

Regards

Glenn
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 08:53 PM
(#9)
Deleted user
I too side with buschman on this.

Top pair with a very very weak kicker is not an all in hand here, especially with your read.


Randy
 
Old
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Wed Nov 20, 2002, 09:08 PM
(#10)
Deleted user
i would check the flop...if the player bets, you can put him on a big heart possibly, and fold from there. he might be scared that you are trying to trap him as a lot of the time, a check here means a bigger hand then betting all in on the flop, as you are trying to induce him to put you all in. he may check behind you and you may get a free look on the turn, and possibly the river to improve your hand at no further cost...

dan
 
Old
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Thu Nov 21, 2002, 02:49 PM
(#11)
Deleted user
Thank you for all your insightful responses. It gave me a lot to think about for future reference. This might have been the right play against a weak tight player as I really didnt want a call. However, thinking back to his earlier plays, he would have most likely have called even if he was behind. But I guess that I lost sight of that fact during the heat of battle. . Also, a more accurate mathematical assessment might have been that I had 5 clean outs instead of 14. If he had a heart, it would have more than likely been higher.

My comment to him was meant to "rattle his cage" a little and it almost worked. (he flinched for a sec when he heard it) . My intent was to make him second guess his slow play but I could also see how that could be misunderstood as a bluff.

This exchange of ideas is one of the reasons why PSO works!!


CH
 
Old
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Fri Nov 22, 2002, 09:11 PM
(#12)
Deleted user
I don't know whether your move was right in that spot. However, I will say that you would have to make an all-in move before the blinds next came to you. Certainly, if it was folded to you in any of the next 3 hands, then all-in with any 2. I can't understand how anybody could think they have more time than that. Be interested in their thinking behind that.
 

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