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10NL 6 Max Straight vs Shove

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10NL 6 Max Straight vs Shove - Thu Feb 21, 2013, 11:25 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 20/0 over 15 hands

f

I checked the flop, thinking that any King, Jack or flush draw won't fold. But cbetting could be better, folding lower PPs, low connectors and gappers which missed, taking down the pot here.

We turned a straight and he jams. I don't think that any turned flush will shove and kill the action. Looks more like he's leveraging on fold equity, doing so with a Qx or nut FD. Though we're risking $8 to win $12, I'm inclined to call.

Thoughts about this??
 
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Fri Feb 22, 2013, 06:08 PM
(#2)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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You've always post the most challenging hands NW

I've been working on my ranging lately, so I've been trying to 'train' myself to look past the worst-case scenario of like ... Ahxh would have AxQh drawing dead. But sometimes it can be hard to be clinical about things when the stakes feel high?

Also, some peoples' ranges are so wide ... like, sometimes I'm not sure what sort of hands a person would complete the sb with against 2 people, and then call a ginormous 3-bet squeeze with?? You think like maybe middling pocket pairs (77-JJ?), suited connectors (56s-9Ts), broadways (JT-KQ?) Axs??

So yeah, if Ah9h were in his range, that does seem weird that somebody would choose to check-shove so huge on the turn, rather than just reraising a smaller amount?

And then maybe there might be some lower flush draws in the villain's range too, like 6h7h or 7h8h that he might have been worried might get outdrawn ... but then if that was the concern, wouldn't a person be more likely to lead out on the turn, since you checked behind on the flop?

So maybe the flush draw isn't that likely? Of course I say that, and then you probably called, and the villain probably flipped over Ah2h, so ... sigh ...

Hands that you beat, that a villain might play that way I guess might be some of those pocket pairs, especially TT or 9h9x (or JJ?) ... or possibly 2pr like KJ, KT, or JT? Since both have outs to a boat.

And maybe there are some possible nut flush draws plus pairs, like AhTx, or AhJx??

And other Qx straights I guess, with or without a better/worse flush draws?


Doing the analysis ... being clinical about it, it looks like maybe it should be a call? Especially since you didn't bet the flop, and only half-bet the turn ... like, from the villain's perspective, maybe it looked like you might have had just a pair and/or a draw, or something like that? And you have a redraw to the second nuts ...

Except I'd still feel like folding here ... hard to be objective when you're not winning much maybe, I don't know ...

(NOTE: Student ranger - in training!!)

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 08:44 AM.. Reason: had to edit things for clarity ... my thought process got a little murky in the middle there I think :/
 
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Fri Feb 22, 2013, 11:40 PM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi guys,

I think this is an interesting spot so thought I'd drop in.

Going to flop I think his range is something like this 2+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+,KQo (120combos) If you were to bet the flop I think you could get a reasonable amount of hands to fold.

I think if you bet $1.10 his continuing range would be something like this

Hands Combos
AA (3)
KK (3)
QQ (3)
JJ (3)
99 (3)
AKs (2)
AKo (7)
AQo (7)
KQs (3)
KQo (6)
KJs (3)
Th9h (1)
9h8h (1)
8h7h (1)

So he continues with 46/120 combos or 38%, hence folding 62%. By muliplying the probability ofthe event by teh profit of it we can calculate out EV.

0.62($1.60)+0.38(-$1.10)=$0.574

Therfore you make around 57c in the long run with this bet, so the flop is a bet imo.

The Th OTT allows us to disclount Th9h.

I think he'd bet with AA and 2 pair given how wet the board is, a straight that doesn't have the Ah would likely bet for value as well. Also he'd c/f KQ and possibly even just c/c with QQ 99 and JJ trying to get to showdown.

Therefore I think his x/r AI range is 7h8h 8h9h AhKx (3) KK (3) AhQo(3)

We could use poker stove but why not do a proper EV calc So we can calculate our equity vs thar range.

Hand Our equity
7h8h 16
8h9h 14
AhKx 81
KK 80
AhQo 43

Next calculate the equity*combos for each hand and ass together:

(16*1)+(14*1)+(81*3)+(80*3)+(43*3)=642

and divide by total occurences (total combos)

642/11=58.36% equity.

If you plug this range into pokerstove KK,9h8h,8h7h,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQc
you get 58.33%.

Not far off

Finally time for pot odds

11.93/8.12 = 1.47/1 that means you need to win approximately 1/2.5 (2.5 1.5 pot odds plus 1 for your call)

1/2.5 = 0.4

So you need 40% equity therefore I would call.

I might be off on my ranging but doing this process really helps you get thinking about things. Doing at least one hand like this a day will help anyones game to no end.





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Sat Feb 23, 2013, 08:52 AM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I might be off on my ranging but doing this process really helps you get thinking about things. Doing at least one hand like this a day will help anyones game to no end.
Wow, Croyd, really liking your analysis - that's top draw attention to detail right there, right down to the dollar bill smiley

That's what I was hoping for too - that in doing these exercises away from the table, it'll hopefully get easier at the table ... eventually. How long is the time bank ... like about 30 seconds? So if I can just shave about ... 24 minutes and 48 seconds off the time it took me to do this one hand here in the HA forum, I should be good to go lol!



Well, hopefully *some* of the ranging'll start becoming second-nature ... which ought to be an improvement right there


Cool hand NW, and cool read Croyd!!!

PS My ranging of the villain's probably super-off, because I've been winding up at showdown against so many strange hands lately, like AJ<J6o, etc. But that's cool to see how even with the tighter range, it was still a call

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 08:56 AM..
 
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Sat Feb 23, 2013, 10:08 AM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

This was definitely not a fold on the turn so I hope you didn't pitch it.

What kind of hands make the most sense from villain? I think QX is really the number one candidate. Sure he could have a flush, but we shouldn't be seeing threats where there aren't that many.

I think betting the flop would be ok, but agree with the check-back. Most hands that fold to our flop bet will fold the turn anyways so we can take a free pull and make an effective delayed c-bet.

Long story short, we have the nut straight with a redraw here, no way you should fold.
 
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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 10:16 PM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Hi all!! Appreciate the long and detailed analysis. I've read every single line so thanks a lot!!

So now for the answer. What worried me was that he limped and called my PF raise. So his range is so wide! I didn't know how to input all the flush(2 hearts) combis into Pokerstove cos there're so many of them. Wasn't able to think in such detail like you all did while playing the hand.

Luckily, he showed up with Kc9c! Scary call though.
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 12:26 AM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post

Luckily, he showed up with Kc9c! Scary call though.
!!! !!!

Was the river a (non-heart) 9?


Gosh, looking back I wish I'd taken more breaks during my downswing, because I don't think I took full advantage of the opportunity to learn about how to play really loose players like this. Otherwise my ranging wouldn't *still* be too tight

It's only during downswings that you get to see just how wide peoples' ranges are, because they'll get to showdown when you give up on the hand, or if they make some unusual 2pr.


And ... I didn't know what to expect from the pool at 10nl, but today I played there for a bit, and there seem to be the same number of casual players playing the same wide ranges as there were at 5nl?

EG.

Click to show hidden text



Glad to year you called NW ... nice!!!
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 02:05 AM
(#8)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Heys Sam thanks! River was a blank so I won the pot For the hand you posted it's surprising how Villain 1 flat it on the Flop. Think he wanted to trap. Turn card was scary and the overpot bet made it worse, so he just flat. But that's how passive players play.

Talking about downswing, I had 1 and only 1 so far which was in Jan. But downswings are not quantifiable. It's just a series of bad run which is compressed into a tight time-frame (assuming you're playing your A-game everytime, making the right decisions). I was tremendously affected when I happened to be on the other side of the coin so frequently that I lost confidence even playing middle set. In turn, tilted, played my B and C game, results got worse. But Feb's better, more emotional control

I haven't played 5NL lately. But yea there're regulars there playing at 10NL too. Gota table-select well to play with those weaker players to maximise our profits. GL at the tables!!
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 05:29 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Yeah, b and c game ... think that started creeping up on me, without me realizing it was happening.

Glad things turned around for you - guess the best way to get past a downswing is through it, eh?

Thanks for sharing that story NW
 

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