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Turn Play not as PFR

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Turn Play not as PFR - Sat Feb 23, 2013, 06:40 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hello PSO-ers,

I've been doing some thinking about certain spots when we have TP type of hand facing PFR aggression on two streets, and I'm a bit confused concerning different scenarios (opponent + board texture + hand strength) when to call a turn bet and when to fold to avoid guessing on the river.

Here I have 5 hands that I had marked in my database and I would appreciate if you can put in some thought to turn play and perhaps point out some resource I could read/watch that can help me in that regards

Hand #1

Villain 27/20/3 (166 Hands)
Flop Cbet 75% (12 Hands), Turn Cbet 60% (5 Hands)
Flop Agg Freq. 41%, Turn Agg Freq. 38%, River Agg Freq 43%
WTSD 19%



Hand #2

Villain 21/10/8 (29 Hands)



Hand #3

Villain 22/19/inf (32 Hands)



Hand #4

Villain unknown



Hand #5

Villain unknown

 
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Sat Feb 23, 2013, 09:27 PM
(#2)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Hey Geo!

Something I've been wondering for a long time, is ... are there people who are turning a profit at the cash tables with one-pair hands?

In any case ... I guess the only way we get to look for 'tells' that our TP hands might not be good, is if we take it to showdown? So I must have a TON of those But I only have one that came to mind when you mentioned looking for clues that maybe our one-pair hand might not be good.

It's this one (can't find it in the replayer, and for some reason, the HH isn't getting emailed to me when I request it? )

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=AC0C8D94A7


So here was thing I spotted that *might* be a *potential* tell in *some* cases? The villain's bets were getting bigger as a percentage of the pot with each street.

F: 41%
T: 67%
R: 73%

Whereas, with one-pair with a decent kicker don't a lot of people make their bets a bit smaller with each passing street if the board's kind of dry and the person behind keeps calling?


I don't know ... I feel kind of silly posting that, because I'm sure if you look just at that one thing, there'd be so many times where it would be a mistake to fold TPGK. Especially in the cutoff/button/blinds. So, maybe it's a mistake to worry too much about close calls, absent reads, I don't know???

I don't know ... just thought I'd post that, just for discussion purposes, as like a working theory type thing ... I don't know ...
 
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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 05:02 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Sam,

Yea I hardly think TP hands will come out winners by SD. The most money is coming from st8, flushes, and sets I beleive. So perhaps descision should be made by the turn instead of calling turn bet and folding to river bet.

In the hand you linked, I think you should have 1. 3bet preflop for value
2. fold to river bet after his big bet when the board paired. as a side note, I would raise turn if we were deep and plan to call a re-raise ofcourse with our nut FD.
 
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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 01:31 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I will analyze hand 1 for you.

The preflop call is marginal imo for 4x, although I like being in position here. In order for this to be profitable I think we need to win sometimes postflop when we don't hit our hand, as some of the times we do we'll be dominated, and I'm not sure how great a target the villain is for this.

So we actually hit our hand pretty well, top pair + a gut shot. He c-bets which should not surprise us. I would call here, our hand strength doesn't warrant raising and we have reasonable showdown value, outs to improve, and position on a decent depth of money.

I see no reason to change course of action on the turn for all the same factors as the flop.


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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 03:40 PM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Oh, ya - those are the stats I was looking at ... final hand at showdown. Okay, yeah mine are the same - just always wondered if others' might be doing better or what. You don't know until you ask I guess

Gosh, you know what ... I *never* noticed the fact that I picked up a flush draw on the turn until you mentioned it Geo. This is an old hand, so maybe that might be part of it. But also there was a timing tell, where the villain had a long pause on the turn, and then made that bigger bet - I didn't mention that because I wanted to keep the idea more general.

So now that you point out the flush draw, for sure a fold on the turn would be a mistake - and I like your reasoning for the fold on the river. Hopefully if this hand was happening today, I'd be playing it that way ... hopefully!


And yeah, I guess a similar rationale applies to your hand #1 like Dave points out, with the outs to improve to a straight. Especially if the villain has a tendency to cbet a little wider than most on the turn.


Here's how I thought maybe the bigger turn bet could factor into hand #1:

In terms of TP, QJ is behind KQ+, tied with QJ, and behind QT ... so the villain would have to be holding Q9 for the J kicker to be ahead. Which is outside his VPIP of 19 range.

And TP is behind all sets.

But would be ahead of pocket pairs with gut-shots like JJ or 99.

And basically flipping with nut flush draws like AdKd, AdJd.

So, like I guess I'm sort of seeing my theory possibly helping to flesh out a villain's range - like even though the villain c-bets a little wider than most, is he likely to be making a c-bet larger (as a % of the pot) on the turn with hands in the latter 2 categories? Or more likely smaller?

Because QJ only has 4 outs against a set, and 6 outs against a better kicker ... 2 outs against 2pr (less likely the villain's holding QTs I guess?). 9 outs against an overpair I guess though, is that right? So like to continue, I don't know ... would the villain's range have to include some of those weaker holdings for calling to be profitable?

I don't know though, I mean like maybe the villain was raising larger on the turn with AdKd or 99 hoping to get a fold, and then folding TPTK would be a huge mistake ...

I don't know ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:44 PM..
 
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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 05:16 PM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi geo,

I will analyze hand 1 for you.

The preflop call is marginal imo for 4x, although I like being in position here. In order for this to be profitable I think we need to win sometimes postflop when we don't hit our hand, as some of the times we do we'll be dominated, and I'm not sure how great a target the villain is for this.

So we actually hit our hand pretty well, top pair + a gut shot. He c-bets which should not surprise us. I would call here, our hand strength doesn't warrant raising and we have reasonable showdown value, outs to improve, and position on a decent depth of money.

I see no reason to change course of action on the turn for all the same factors as the flop.
Hi Dave, the reason I put all those hands together in one post is that these hands fall into the same category of facing a turn bet when we hold TP, but I think the board texture might change our decision OTT. I appreciate if you can provide feedback on the different scenarios or if it's better I can post those hands seperately?
 
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Sun Feb 24, 2013, 05:17 PM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I don't know ...
Neither do I
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 12:49 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

The rule is 1 hand to a post, to avoid confusion in the thread when discussions ensue. No worries, I'll have a look at the other ones and seperate my replies by posts, just keep in mind for the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hand #2

Villain 21/10/8 (29 Hands)


In this hand it's pretty easy I think since the villain is a short stacker, when we flat call here it's to commit if we hit top pair. His flop bet sizing is weak, I'd probably raise him directly on the flop as I expect this player type to call or even shove with an hand containing a T and even worse non-ten hands like AJ, A9, KJ.

As played I'd call the turn and give him a chance to bluff the river.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 12:51 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Hand #3

Villain 22/19/inf (32 Hands)

Not much change here from previous thoughts. If you play the hand, then giving him a chance to barrel with worse is fine.

At this point having looked at 3 of the hands, I'm going to make an observation... if you keep calling raises with easily dominated hands, you will continue to find yourself in these marginal post flop spots. In these first 3 hands the calls are all marginal at best with no reads (you have very insignificant reads in the 2nd two hands). Generally when we call with KQo we are going to make top pair when we do connect with the flop, if we think we feel like folding to 2 barrels virtually readless then it was probably not a +EV call preflop, because people are going to double barrel us without the goods a fair bit. If we have reads about how they play post flop that tells us how we are going to make this a profitable situation that's better. But what you seem to be doing here is calling raises with easily dominated hands, hitting what you hoped for, then getting lost because the villain doesn't give up after a flop call. Try folding these spots more often until you get legit reads to give you some confidence in a direction to go with the spot. When I call a preflop raise with KQ and hit a K high flop, I generally don't fold to 2 barrels without a good reason.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 01:01 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hand #4

Villain unknown


Ok this one is different. First I think flatting or 3-betting a SB min-raise is fine.

I would assume his range is wide open here. Calling the flop is fine, you're generally way ahead/way behind with the vast majority being way ahead, so let him keep barreling his worse hands. Raising makes little sense here as it will fold out all his air which is what he has most of the time, and folding is out of the question as this hand is quite strong for the situation.

No change on the turn, call his barrel easy. Call river if he bets there too, if he checks go for a token value bet imo.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 01:15 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hand #5

Villain unknown

I don't think the advice changes here from the other ones (except the blind v blind spot which is a bit different a situation altogether).

I would call, and if he fires a big barrel on the river it's a tougher decision, probably ok to fold to a big bet, but would call a medium or small one generally.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 05:31 AM
(#12)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Very much appreciated Dave! Thank you!
 

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