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16NL Overpair Monoflop

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16NL Overpair Monoflop - Mon Feb 25, 2013, 04:41 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain's 50/0 after 20 hands, AF:0.7



Generally on wet boards, value of pair hands decreases. Mistake with this hand lies with not betting the Turn larger, making it an easy River allin.

But as played, generally is it +EV to go all in on the River against such Villain type despite the wet board?
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 10:06 AM
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adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
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i personaly would check behind on the river. the only thing he would call with that you beat is a 9 and maybe a hand like A5. so i would probably check behind becase there is ab posebility that he is slowplaying or that he could not fold an 8.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 12:56 PM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
check behind river

the whole hand runs in a way which makes me suspicious. villain is a fish obv. his stats aren´t surprising but the sample is to small, but we have some empirical proof which is the stack size and the preflop line of open limp/call.

fishes like to draw with suited connectors and sometimes any2 suited are fine, they like to play any ace and they like broadways. those are the hands which they normally play limp/call, a middle or small pocket could be possible too. fishes raise their premiums most of the time. limp/call or limp/raise with premiums is morelikely for for maniacs who try to trap. fishes aren´t that tricky.

so the question is what hands of the mentioned range hit the flop and go on by calling a huge raise after minbetting and check/shove the river. the answer is something like As8x, or the flopped flush which i expect to C/R turn a lot of times, may be a misplayed 99 but this would be unlikely and quads are possible too but rare. My guess is villain showed As8x and you´re pissed cause you got rivered and you´re asking yourself now how to avoid it.

no sir, i check behind here. the busted draws are beat and i don´t see worse hands than yours calling. oh and half pot on turn was fine against the draws. so check behind and cut your losses here or get paid by the busted draws.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 01:28 PM..
 
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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 01:24 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Hi TA,

I disagree with the others, I like betting the river for value against this guy... small sample size but the early read is loose passive, he will call us down with quite a few worse hands and his like indicates a worse hand most of the time. If he has an 8 with a big club just unlucky. The key here in my opinion is I think we WILL get called often enough by worse. If you feel we won't be called by worse like DD and ad stated, then for sure you should check down.

The important learning points in this hand imo are the bet sizing mistakes which occur on each street.

Starting backwards, on the river the pot contains $12.16 and he's only got $7.18 left, if you are betting for value put him all in. Betting $5.44 isn't good because when he's got a monster he'll make you put the last 1.74 in and get the full value, but when he's calling you down with TT, 9x or whatever he gets to take a 1.74 discount now on the payoff.

On the turn, bet larger as you said, I agree with.

On the flop, you can raise larger. There's 2.56 in the middle and he donks for .16c (lol). Why only 1.76 to go? I know it looks like a big raise relative to his bet, but it's still just under 2/3rds pot and there's a lot of money behind. This villains likely range for this is worse 1 pair hands and draws mostly, and he seems like the type to call and gamble with you, so hit it up to 2.50 or something closer to pot sized imo.


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Mon Feb 25, 2013, 03:40 PM
(#5)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
what should the worse hands be? TT, JJ, QQ?

the betsizing thing is right, but i expect a fish to do dumb things like that on micros and i only commented to the river as played. however if you take the betsizing into account Dave, you have to mention the call on river too, because 99% of the time i see a fish C/Ring the river he has nothing but nuts.

when looking at the whole hand i would´ve raised flop bigger and shoved the turn. yes, you´re beat sometimes but most of the time you get called by any kind of draws and against a straight, which is morelikely for villain as the flush, you have some outs.

shoving river is a no, because there are more straights, flushes and boats in villains range as TT+ combos we have beat. for villains range i go with a standard fish range for limp call (any ace, any middle or small pocket, any two broadways, suited connectors and gap connectors with broadways) and i´m assuming that villain is unlikely to make a hero call with Ahigh.

Last edited by DivorcedDuck; Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 03:53 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 12:15 AM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Hi all, interesting discussion here. Thanks for your input. Very much agree with the bet-sizing issue which has always been my problem. Also, I think the main question is whether worse can call. I think that against this passive Villain type who limps, definitely worse can call.

Did some Pokerstove, gave him a tight range with set, overpair and 9x combos which will call 2 streets: TT-88,A9s,J9s,T9s,97s+,98o. We're 64% favourite OTR. Didn't include those flopped flush and other 8x combos though. If we factor them in, we may still be a slight favourite.

He showed up with Th8h though
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 12:26 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by DivorcedDuck View Post
what should the worse hands be? TT, JJ, QQ?
Basically all of the preflop range you give the fish, that ends up as 1 pair on the river. Maybe he won't call us down with bottom pair like a total station, but it's my opinion he will call with quite a few 1 pair hands, not just TT+.

Quote:
you have to mention the call on river too, because 99% of the time i see a fish C/Ring the river he has nothing but nuts.
Not really, the call on the river isn't really important, I tried focus on the things I thought were important to the learning process in this hand. But we can talk about it.

I agree with you when a (loose-passive) fish c/r the river they virtually always have a monster. But this isn't a certainty here as it's not a true check/raise... the call is 5.44 and the raise is only 1.74 more. It's not inconceivable that he might put the rest in with a slightly worse 1 pair hand thinking our weak bet sizing means a busted flush draw. Or that he might say screw it, take it all, and put the last few pennies in. This would be really stupid of course, but (as you correctly note), fish do dumb things all the time.

So I would not fold. We're calling 1.74 to win a pot of 26.52 so our break even point is only 6.5%. The margin of error for the "stupid stuff" should be over this. Not much, ok, maybe it's slightly under, but ultimately it's close and from an EV perspective makes little difference. For this trial though with such a small break even line I would chose the play that if wrong, is the small mistake. Calling 1.74 more with the worst hand is a small mistake, while folding the best hand in a $26 pot is a huge one.

Totally agree we are usually beat here, I wouldn't expect to be good, but we can be beat 9 times out of 10 and still make a nice profit on the last 1.74 call.


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