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2NL Zoom - Bet Sizing+Correct river decision?

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2NL Zoom - Bet Sizing+Correct river decision? - Mon Feb 25, 2013, 03:27 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Villian in this hand is 8/6 over 51 hands. So tight/nittish.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

AA, pre-flop, easy to play. My standard raise is $0.05c. The Miscreant makes the call.

On the flop there is a flush draw, so where I usually bet about 55% on the flop I increase this to around 75% to try and discourage drawing hands, but get a call.

At this stage, given his nittish stats, I am thinking a high suited A of diamonds. He would have re-raised KK, so I discounted a set of Kings, I very much doubt he was calling with any combination that made two pair. Possibly he hit a set on the flop.

Turn brings an unlikely second flush draw but also a straight draw in addition. Again I bet slightly larger than usual to try and dissuade any drawing hands but he called again.

River completes flush and straight draws. The first of the decisions I am unsure about crops up. I make another bet. Given the wet nature of the board I am beating next to nothing. Even a baby flush got there.

I figure I am probably dead in the hand, my only chance of winning is to make a bet and hopefully get a fold, this is only likely if he has a small flush hand and he believes that I have a better one.

Finally, was the fold correct after he shoved? I'm pretty confident it was, and it is probably a straightforward fold for most people, but I am still fairly new to this game and I think this is probably the first time I have found the fold button with aces.

All in all, the guy was a nit, he was unlikely to be calling with a weak hand pre. He was unlikely to be calling flop and turn without serious equity in the hand, and coming over the top on the river is either an unbelievable bluff or for ultimate value.

So I think I made the right decision in the end - I just want to know if it was for the right reasons.
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 12:45 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi bhoy,

Early sample size is nit, nice, I wish he'd 3b you because that would probably KK and we could 4b/get it in.

Flop bet is fine, but draws have nothing to do with it. He's only got 1 or 2 combos max of flush draws in his range, right? AdQd and maybe AdJd? I think KK probably reraises us preflop at least some of the time (even from a nitty guy), but this type of guy often doesn't 3b with AK pre, so I think he's going to have a lot of pocket pairs and AK a lot here, maybe KQs. When he calls we can rule out all non-set pairs. So I think the card we most don't want to see is another K now. And the bigger bet sizing is good because he'll call it with AK/KQ but will fold the rest of his hands regardless of what you bet, so go for the bigger value.

Turn action is great.

Quote:
River completes flush and straight draws.The first of the decisions I am unsure about crops up. I make another bet. Given the wet nature of the board I am beating next to nothing. Even a baby flush got there.
Range. Construct a preflop range based on what you know, and narrow it with the ensuing information. Now explain how he could get to the river with a 4 or 98 in his hand. The answer is he can't really have a straight. 44 folded the flop and 98 wasn't even in his preflop calling range. For the same reason he can't hold a baby flush. He could hold a flush for sure, but it's almost always the nut flush if he does.

So I disagree with your logic that you are beating nothing and want to bet to make him fold... he's never folding a better hand if he holds one. I do think we should bet though because we are beating AK and KQ and those hands may call us, especially AK. When he shoves it's a really easy fold. He probably has AdQd. He would certainly never do this with AK, probably can only show us the nuts here actually. He has no bluffs in his range and the hands we were value betting against would either call or fold, never shove. Don't pay off the nit


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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 12:48 AM
(#3)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
...
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 01:56 AM
(#4)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
He's only got 1 or 2 combos max of flush draws in his range, right? AdQd and maybe AdJd?
close... add ATs,KTs+,QJs and you´re perfect.

Quote:
And the bigger bet sizing is good because he'll call it with AK/KQ but will fold the rest of his hands regardless of what you bet, so go for the bigger value.
thats the perfect reason for a pot size or may be even an overbet. his top pairs are all TPGK and the few flush draws will call anyway. i don´t see him folding that much but it improves the chance to get the money into the middle vs. the flush draws which is great as there are 0 combo draws in villains range.

Quote:
He could hold a flush for sure, but it's almost always the nut flush if he does.
it was 8/6 not 4/2... but the ratio is right. some more flushes but also some more top pairs.

Quote:
So I disagree with your logic that you are beating nothing and want to bet to make him fold... he's never folding a better hand if he holds one.
so true especially when it comes to flushes... the logic doesn´t match the hand but beside that it´s really dangerous in general to think that way on micros!

never ever try to push a microstakes player off his flush or flush draw. they would even call a deuce high for the flush with a gun next to their head telling them to fold. make them pay and you make profit.

Quote:
He has no bluffs in his range and the hands we were value betting against would either call or fold, never shove. Don't pay off the nit.
8% 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ 110 combos
AcAs is reducing villains range to 79 combos
discounting JJ+ and AK and you´re down to 49(!) combos. 14 hit the flop and will in that case follow you down to the river

on a Khigh flush board you´re a 7:3 favorite to win with AA. there´s no possibility for a set, two pair, straight draw. only a second K on the board would turn the hand upside down. a K on turn or river would make you becoming the 30:70 underdog. still no reason to check/fold. bet/fold is fine as long as you pay attention to the bet size...

C/C could be close to max ev in some cases but i´m to tired to calculate it right now. maybe later...

overall the hand is close to perfect. the hand is great to show how hard card removal hits a tight range contrary to a lose.
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 09:55 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
8/6 is his average over all preflop situations. His cold call of a non-steal position raise is certainly tighter, probably closer to 4/2.


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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 10:36 AM
(#6)
DivorcedDuck's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
8/6 is his average over all preflop situations. His cold call of a non-steal position raise is certainly tighter, probably closer to 4/2.
true but it´s mostlikely the bottom half. should have mentioned that. the point i wanted to make is that there are some more Kx and even a few QJs combos in villains range mostlikely which is good for hero. it was late...
 
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Tue Feb 26, 2013, 06:31 PM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Thanks for the comments guys.

I kind of regret mentioning the straight draw in my initial post as I didnt consider it at all likely that the nit was in the hand to the river with such a dodgy hand. Nor did I think there was a baby flush involved.

I still think it was AQs or AJs.

In my initial post I also mentioned wanting to 'dissuade' draws from calling. I meant that I want to charge the draws so that if they miss and I am good at showdown I have maximised my profit from such hands.

I'm very glad I posted this hand - like I said - this is the first time I recall folding AA at any point. A lot of the time I have been fortunate to either get it in pre against other premium or less than premium hands.

So thanks for the comments. I'm nowhere close to being an effective hand reader yet but this proves that I am capable of making some good decisions.
 

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